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1761  Non-Gaming / Off-Topic / Re: Seinfeld, Gates, churros and shoes. on: September 13, 2008, 12:04:30 AM
not meaning to hijack the thread too far off course, but what's the general consensus on Vista 64 and games?

I've been using Vista 64 since launch. The first six months I agree were pretty rough, because it seemed none of the hardware developers took Vista seriously and took steps to create drivers that would work with it. This is where much of Vista's bad rap came from.

However, it's come a looong way and I have no problem finding up to date Vista 64 drivers nowadays. I don't play many legacy games, so I can't speak for them, but I've played dozen of titles released in the past 4 years or so with absolutely no problems.

I work in tech support, so I've seen a tendency for users, hearing horror stories of Vista, to blame all of their computer's ills on the OS. Recently I had a woman who claimed Vista crashed her hard drive, and after she had her hard drive replaced, slowed her computer down to the point of being unusable. Upon investigation, her kids had been using Limewire and Kazaa on the thing and it was chock full of spyware.

I'm not saying Vista's perfect, but I am saying that when installed on a decent piece of hardware (not the 6 year old hand-me-down PC your uncle gave you) and maintained properly, it is a perfectly fine OS and has many nice advantages over XP.

i also noticed more than one resolution involving registry hacks.  honestly, do you think the average user should have to do such a thing?

No, but there were registry hacks in XP's early days too. It's really impossible to compare a 2-year old OS to a 7-year old OS in terms of security fixes and patches. It's equivalent to comparing the polish levels of a launch MMO and one that's been out 4 years.

However, I don't let Microsoft off the hook. I think they did a *terrible* job marketing Vista, and their tactics of selling "Vista-ready" computers with sub-standard specs, etc. contributed greatly to Vista's bad reputation. They tried to sell it as a must-have upgrade for everyone, when in fact it was designed to push hardware. I also agree that most of Vista's most significant improvements were "under the hood" and really only visible to enthusiasts. They should have done a better job educating the public on the benefits Vista could provide. Instead of focusing on bell and whistle bullshit like DX10, they should have been teaching people the *significant* security improvements, search features, expanded diagnostics, etc.
1762  Non-Gaming / Off-Topic / Re: Seinfeld, Gates, churros and shoes. on: September 12, 2008, 08:49:05 PM
Go read this!
1763  Non-Gaming / Off-Topic / Re: Seinfeld, Gates, churros and shoes. on: September 12, 2008, 07:58:22 PM
The worst thing about Vista is consumer ignorance.
1764  Non-Gaming / Off-Topic / Re: Can't believe what I just paid for gas on: September 12, 2008, 06:20:35 PM
Local gas prices are set to go through the roof at 6pm tonight due to Ike.

I'm in North Carolina and there are already lines forming at the gas stations.  Roll Eyes

I know gas is going up due to Ike (it shot up 40 cents a gallon today), but I'm not sure freaking the fuck out, depleting gas supplies, and waiting in line for hours is the right way to handle the impending hike. At some point I think you wind up like Chicken Little and bringing about your own worst case scenario.
1765  Gaming / Multiplayer Madness (MMO or otherwise) / Re: Warhammer. Open RVR vs. Core rule servers. Lets talk about it. on: September 10, 2008, 02:25:56 PM
My understanding is that in Core servers, RvR is restricted to RvR areas, while in Open servers, PvP can take place *anywhere* except in capital cities. However, even on the Open servers, high level players will not be able to gank lower levels because entering areas below your tier will turn you into a chicken. (One of the beta surveys asks if that feature should be kept or discarded, so I assume that's definitely open to change).

Personally I think the Core servers will be plenty PvP for me. The game has so much depth outside (like completing the Tome of Knowledge unlocks, influence rewards, etc.) that I think I'll enjoy being "safe" to explore those when I'm not actively PvPing. And since PvP is such an integral part of the game, there's no worry for me that I'll get bored on a Core server. Unlike a lot of other MMOs with "voluntary" PvP, WAR will force you to join battle eventually - to complete quests, to gain renown XP, etc. 
1766  Gaming / Multiplayer Madness (MMO or otherwise) / Re: Warhammer Online headed to Open Beta on 9/7 on: September 09, 2008, 08:56:43 PM
The one good thing that came out of Age of Conan for me is that it got me hooked on PvP.

I had absolutely zero interest in Warhammer when AoC came out, solely because of its heavy PvP focus. However, I got so bored with AoC's PvE that I finally relented to my friend's nagging and joined his PvP server. I had a lot of fun until the balance issues came to light (and I realized that PvP was largely meaningless in that game).

Still, it definitely ignited a spark - I don't know if I'd ever be able to go back to traditional pure PvE anymore with modern MMOs, because the challenge level is just not there for me. PvP fills the void for me left by old-school "hardcore" MMO mechanics like heavy death penalties, etc.
1767  Non-Gaming / Off-Topic / Re: Seinfeld, Gates, churros and shoes. on: September 09, 2008, 07:53:16 PM
I've talked to several people who are not technophiles, and while they think the commercial is entertaining, they're not discussing the meaning behind it or anything like we are.

IMHO, they missed the mark with the target audience.

I'd agree with that if this was a one-shot ad. It's clear that it's just the first in a large series, and I'm guessing as time goes on the "meaning" will become much more apparent. This is just the hook to get people talking and interested in what comes next.

What it has done is generated buzz among non-technophiles and primed them for more meaningful commercials to follow.

Of course, this may still fall flat on its face. Microsoft has a rather checkered promotional past...
1768  Gaming / Multiplayer Madness (MMO or otherwise) / Re: Warhammer Online headed to Open Beta on 9/7 on: September 09, 2008, 07:06:56 PM
Thanks Strider. That's encouraging! Nice to see a game (other than WoW, I guess) tie some meaningful rewards to PvP.
1769  Gaming / Multiplayer Madness (MMO or otherwise) / Re: Warhammer Online headed to Open Beta on 9/7 on: September 09, 2008, 05:29:07 PM
Can someone briefly explain the leveling system? I know there are 40 levels. How many renown levels are there? Also, I know you can earn XP while PvPing - is this XP split evenly between your rank and renown rank, or are they two separate pools? What are the benefits of renown levels - what perks do they give you?
1770  Gaming / Multiplayer Madness (MMO or otherwise) / Re: Warhammer Online headed to Open Beta on 9/7 on: September 08, 2008, 09:50:57 PM
If they're going to be gigantic PITA's about the beta, then I won't particularly trust them to handle release any better.

I doubt they're intentionally trying to screw anyone over. It's just that 9GB file + massive interest + thousands of beta slots opened simultaneously = slow downloads the day before beta. Mine downloaded fine...2 weeks ago.
1771  Non-Gaming / Off-Topic / Re: Happy NFL Season! on: September 07, 2008, 11:54:37 PM
What a terrific Carolina game. Just when I thought we'd snatch defeat from the jaws of victory as usual, Mr. Bojangles (Delhomme) actually pulls off the miracle. Dare I hope all that pre-season talk that we'll be a good team this year was indeed more than just talk?
1772  Gaming / Multiplayer Madness (MMO or otherwise) / Re: Warhammer Online headed to Open Beta on 9/7 on: September 07, 2008, 08:39:45 PM
Aside from Vanguard you mean....

I know you're kidding, but I do feel I need to explain myself.

I've had good impressions of other titles (the aforementioned Vanguard, Age of Conan), but both of those were based on assumptions that bugs would be ironed out fairly quickly, missing content would be added, etc. In other words, I had really good impressions of their *foundations,* but I was well aware that there was a LOT of work to be done.

With Warhammer, from what I've read the major content, the PvP system, etc. etc. is already in place, and the game seems *much* more stable and bug-free than AoC or Vanguard. It reminds me a lot of my initial impression of EQ2, which I ended up playing for 2 years - and in many ways it's more polished than that was.

1773  Gaming / Multiplayer Madness (MMO or otherwise) / Re: Warhammer Online headed to Open Beta on 9/7 on: September 07, 2008, 05:21:35 PM
Initial impressions are very, very positive. Better than I expected in terms of general stability, content, and polish.

Highlights for me:

Public quests are a really cool idea, and I've had a lot of fun with them. Between gaining influence for the influence rewards, and hoping to get some phat lewt for participation, they provide a nice break from general solo questing.

RvR scenarios. I've only participated in one so far, but it was a blast. PvP in this game is going to rock.

Overall "feel": the game has its own style, but underneath the obvious WoW influence there is definitely a hint of DAoC. It brought back some fantastic memories of that game, and I felt really comfortable from the get-go. The graphics are definitely not as WoW-like as I thought from the videos - they're much, much better and have a style of their own the more you become immersed in them.

Tome of Knowledge - I'm an achievement/story whore, so this thing is like a dream come true. It's like the LOTRO system on steroids.

Conclusion: There's no doubt in my mind that this is the next "great" MMO. Forget those that have fell by the wayside since WoW/EQ2 - Vanguard, LOTRO, Tabula Rasa, AoC, Pirates of the Burning Sea, etc. Some were good, some were bad, but none of them felt like a true successor to WoW. This one does. I'm not saying it will beat WoW, but I think it definitely stands a chance of taking the #2 spot by a wide margin. It really does feel like an MMO that has taken the best things out of is predecessors, threw in a few innovations, and coated it all in polish, style, and a great license.

I'm basing all this on 4 hours of play, so it's absolutely possible my opinion will change. However, very few MMOs give me such strong initial impressions.

1774  Gaming / Multiplayer Madness (MMO or otherwise) / Re: Warhammer Online headed to Open Beta on 9/7 on: September 06, 2008, 08:22:45 PM
so if you had access to the preview weekend (and if you preordered, you did)

Just a quick correction - not all pre-orders got into the preview weekend. Some of us pre-ordered late and had to settle for an open beta slot.  icon_biggrin
1775  Non-Gaming / Off-Topic / Re: Seinfeld, Gates, churros and shoes. on: September 06, 2008, 06:11:24 PM
Yeah, it was obviously meant as a WTF commercial just to get people talking about it. Then somebody says, "WTF is this commercial? Here's a link!" and now Microsoft is reaching people that wouldn't have otherwise seen it. Then when they release their next commercial, everyone will link to it to see if it makes more sense than this one, and they've increased their viewership even more.

I think it's less about conveying a message, and more about publicity at this point.
1776  Non-Gaming / Off-Topic / Re: Ike Blows Hard! on: September 06, 2008, 10:16:43 AM
Well, Hanna is currently moving across us. Woke up to howling winds. Every time we go through one of these tropical storms/weak hurricanes I'm reminded that even 60mph sustained winds are no joke. It's kind of spooky to look outside and see absolutely no rain, just this aggressive, persistent wind lashing at the trees. The sky this morning was a dirty dull orange. Made for a really eerie atmosphere.

At any rate, initial estimates from just looking out the window is that we're in good shape. Other than a little bit of yard debris, Hanna didn't stir up much trouble. Seems like we may wind up dodging two bullets this year, with Hanna weakening to a tropical storm and Ike taking a more southerly route. Good luck to those in Ike's path! 
1777  Non-Gaming / Political / Religious Nonsense / Re: Make your VEEP predictions! on: September 06, 2008, 12:57:22 AM
The news today said that the Obama camp is keeping very mum on Palin right now, because they're afraid that attacking her inexperience will blow up in their face. So it seems the "inexperience" card cuts both ways. I believe that this is why McCain felt he could risk Palin's inexperience - sure, he opens himself up to charges of hypocrisy, but at the same time it's very hard for Obama to do it publicly without it backfiring. She really does put the Dems in an awkward position.
1778  Non-Gaming / Political / Religious Nonsense / Re: Make your VEEP predictions! on: September 05, 2008, 09:28:17 PM
Palin's inexperience also does not change the fact that McCain is much more experienced than Obama. That's a cold hard fact. You can pitch a temper tantrum all you want, but in the end that's something the public can clearly see for themselves. Whether they choose to let perceived 'hypocrisy' influence their vote is up to them to decide. However, I'd wager that most people don't give a fuck if the Republicans "played fair" or if he said this but did this. They're pulling the lever for the guy they think is best qualified to lead the country, not over campaign tactics.
1779  Non-Gaming / Political / Religious Nonsense / Re: Make your VEEP predictions! on: September 05, 2008, 08:30:46 PM
The problem isn't that she's an unknown -- it's that everything we learn about her reveals a history of policy failures, questionable decisions, hypocritical beliefs, and bogus claims.

So the problem isn't that she's an unknown, it's literally every single other thing about the woman. Cheeba's right; she truly does have you guys' panties in a bunch. It seriously is comical to watch you guys falling all over yourselves to criticize her.

I despise Biden with every fiber of my being, but you don't see me running around the boards in hysterics over him.
1780  Non-Gaming / Off-Topic / Re: Seinfeld, Gates, churros and shoes. on: September 05, 2008, 05:41:38 PM
Well, if their goal was to create something so bizarre it would get people talking about Microsoft, they succeeded admirably.
1781  Non-Gaming / Off-Topic / Re: Ike Blows Hard! on: September 05, 2008, 05:12:27 PM
Take care Jag, Jeff, YellowKing and Xmann. Make sure you get out in time and don't get blown with a controller in your wait...don't get caught with your wait...don't be sitting around playing games when the storm hits.  slywink

Right now it looks like we'll just get hit with a tropical storm, barring some miraculous strengthening, so I'm not losing any sleep over it. We're going through the hurricane drill here at work, but it's more as an excuse to practice it than it is serious concern that we'll incur any damage.

It just sucks the thing is going to hit on the weekend. The minimum I expect from a hurricane is at least one free day off of work.  icon_twisted

1782  Non-Gaming / Off-Topic / Re: Are you an "older gamer?" on: September 05, 2008, 03:32:42 PM
First gaming system was an Atari 2600 when I was 5 or 6 years old. I wanted that thing so bad after seeing it at a friend's house. We were poor so I know my mom had to have sacrificed a lot to get it for me.

After that I hit TRS-80s, Commodore 64s, Apple IIes and the like. Then it was on to the NES, and the rest is history. I owned at one time or another most of the major consoles up to the 360 today.

My first true gaming PC was a 386/16 with 4MB of RAM and a 40Mb hard drive. It had a 5 1/4" floppy and a 3 1/2" floppy, an 8-bit Soundblaster (or whatever they were back then), and a 15" VGA monitor. I was the envy of all my friends.  icon_biggrin

1783  Non-Gaming / Political / Religious Nonsense / Re: Make your VEEP predictions! on: September 05, 2008, 03:26:04 PM
If any of you are still puzzled by the Palin pick, read this article.

Palin More Popular Than McCain, Obama
1784  Gaming / Multiplayer Madness (MMO or otherwise) / Re: Warhammer Online headed to Open Beta on 9/7 on: September 05, 2008, 02:56:56 PM
I'll see you guys on Sunday, god willing and the creek don't rise.
1785  Non-Gaming / Political / Religious Nonsense / Re: Make your VEEP predictions! on: September 05, 2008, 01:48:10 PM
However, I think you really have made up your mind and you're rationalizing the choice but the rationale doesn't quite add up.

If there's one thing I can't stand, it's people who presume to know what's in my mind. It's extraordinarily arrogant and condescending, kind of like Joe Biden.  icon_biggrin

1786  Non-Gaming / Political / Religious Nonsense / Re: Make your VEEP predictions! on: September 05, 2008, 12:17:55 PM
The irony, for those that have been debating me, is that I'm still not dead set on voting for McCain in November. I'm not making my final decision until after debates. Until then it's just guessing games on my part.

As recently as a month ago I was still leaning Obama. So while I will furiously defend my opinions, that doesn't make me mindlessly set on one candidate or another. There are things I really like about Obama, and things I really hate. There are things I really like about McCain, and things I really hate.
1787  Non-Gaming / Political / Religious Nonsense / Re: Make your VEEP predictions! on: September 05, 2008, 02:25:00 AM
If you are ok with Palin because she is on the bottom of the ticket and McCain is on top (that's kind of unintentionally sexist, but I'll leave it), then there is a fundamental difference in how we view the responsibilities of the VP. I want the VP to help the President lead, and take over in the event of a tragedy. In that regard, I think Biden is a perfect fit, while Palin's policies mean I don't want her anywhere near washington.

I am OK with Palin more because she is the bottom of the ticket. I don't place a lot of stock in VP picks, other than as ticket balancers to win elections. The VP choice has never played any role in my voting decisions. Palin is not my ideal choice; I would have actually preferred Lieberman. However, I think the attacks against Palin are a bit hypocritical, and that's why I have been defending her. It's not out of any great love for her, because like most Americans I know very little about her at this point.

But, McCain's actions since Obama won the primary have been appalling. His pick of Palin just pushed me over the edge.

Again, that's just a difference of opinion. Some people think that picking an unknown for VP to win an election is appalling. Others see it as a brilliant strategic move that has revitalized a campaign that was headed nowhere fast.

I can't speak for others, but she does scare the utter shit out of me. But not for the reasons you are implying. My opinion is Bush has been a disaster for this country and has brought us to the brink. McCain has voted with him 90% of the time over the past 8 years. And it looks like Palin acted like a Bush clone when she was mayor and governor. For all the talk of reform and calling them mavericks, it doesn't convince me that they aren't offering more of the same. I'm sorry.

I agree to an extent about Bush (though I think words like "to the brink" and "disaster to the country" are overexaggerations). However, I don't believe McCain is a Bush clone. Saying he voted with Bush x number of times is a bit misleading, as he's a Republican. Of course he's going to vote with his party the majority of the time. Being a maverick doesn't mean you vote the opposite of your party at every opportunity. McCain has continuously shown an aversion to kissing up to evangelicals, which is a vast difference between he and Bush, and addresses one of the primary gripes I had with Bush. He also does not strike me whatsoever as someone who wants to continue Bush's reckless spending habits. When most people say McCain is "more of the same" they're typically focusing on Iraq and economic policy. Ironic, then, that the Republican and Democratic policies differ very little on these two points. Obama wants troops out by next summer; General Petraeus is already calling for a troop pullout next summer. Obama wants to cut taxes, McCain wants to cut taxes. The "whats" between the two platforms are pretty similar, it's only the "hows" that differ.

1788  Non-Gaming / Political / Religious Nonsense / Re: Make your VEEP predictions! on: September 05, 2008, 01:21:17 AM
As I told someone else who brought up the Kool-Aid argument, I read the news daily, watch TV, and keep up with politics more than the average American. I draw my own conclusions based upon my own belief system and the media I take in. We wouldn't have a two party system if everyone came to the same conclusions based upon their upbringing and media consumption.

So feel free to toss out the Kool Aid references just because someone disagrees with your world view. It just shows a lack of tolerance and understanding on your part. I enjoy debating people on these boards, but I also try to keep in the back of my mind that those I disagree with feel as strongly about their opinions as I do mine, and they have their own valid reasons for having those opinions.

At any rate, it grows tiring to go back and forth with people whose only goal is to rile up the other party as much as possible. I hold no illusions about changing many people's minds on this board, much less Blackadar's. I've stated my opinion repeatedly, and have not shied away from answering questions or giving the reasons behind my arguments. When the conversation becomes a back and forth exercise in futility is when it outlives its usefulness.

I'll continue to respond to specific questions directed at me, but I'm going to refrain from feeding the flames from here on out.
1789  Non-Gaming / Political / Religious Nonsense / Re: Make your VEEP predictions! on: September 05, 2008, 12:58:09 AM
To translate the above: "It's my ball and I'm going home!"

I'm not going anywhere, troll.

1790  Non-Gaming / Political / Religious Nonsense / Re: Make your VEEP predictions! on: September 05, 2008, 12:50:27 AM
1. Obama has been on the national stage for 4 years now. I heard his speech in 2004, and pegged him as someone to watch. When he announced he was running 2 years ago, I was skeptical. But since then he has toured the nation again and again and again. He has given numerous speeches telling us who he is and what he wants to do. He has successfully answered the question of his experience for roughly 50% of the voters out there right now.

If making pretty speeches equaled experience, then there would be a lot of motivational speakers who could run for President.

2. Whereas Obama has been a national figure since 2004, and touring the country talking to anyone who would listen for over 2 years now, Palin has given exactly 2 speeches in about a weeki. She is an unknown. And quite frankly, everything I have learned about her in the past week scares the shit out of me. She sounds like a Bush clone. But, the reason people are pointing out her lack of experience is because it doesn't make sense for McCain to so viciously attack Obama on his experience, and then turn around and say Palin is ready to lead if something happens to him. This is an outright lie, and you know it, I know it, and anyone following the election knows it. He doesn't give two shits about her policies or stated positions. He thinks she can help him win, and that is it.

As you said, there is nothing wrong with that. Except for a candidate touring on the Straight Talk Express and Country First. His slogan should have been, "WTF is wrong with you people? I'm a god damn american fucking hero! I deserved this position 8 years ago, and now I have to crawl on my hands and knees to even get close to the white house..."

Unlike you, I don't presume to know what McCain's decision making process was. You've obviously already made up your mind that he gave no thought to the decision and based it on purely selfish means. There is no point arguing with you over it - you're not going to be persuaded otherwise.

At the end of the day, I've never seen so much attention paid to a Vice Presidential candidate by the opposing side. She must scare the utter shit out of the Dems if she's stirring up this much animosity. Seems like a good sign to me.

Wake me up when it's Palin vs. Obama. Until then all these arguments about Palin are meaningless distraction.

1791  Non-Gaming / Political / Religious Nonsense / Re: Make your VEEP predictions! on: September 04, 2008, 10:40:02 PM
4 Presidents out of 43 have been assassinated.  That's a 9.30% historical chance.  That's ALL we have to go on.  Could improved security reduce that risk?  Sure!  Could WMDs, terrorism and more powerful weapons increase that chance?  Sure!  9.3% may be the best number - but whatever it is, it's not insignificant.  If you don't like 9.3%, come up with a more complete analysis.  But that number sure in hell isn't approaching 0%.

All your numbers flying around don't change the fact that:

A) Your historical data is irrelevant
B) Even using actuarial tables, which don't account for all factors of the position (stress, better health care, etc.) McCain still has a much greater chance of surviving his term than not surviving it.

At any rate, this whole Palin thing has been flipped on its head.

The question I have for the Obama supporters is this:

1. If the idea of an inexperienced candidate taking over for McCain scares you, why are you supporting an inexperienced candidate for President?

2. If experience isn't an issue, then why are you so hell-bent on pointing out Palin's lack thereof?
1792  Non-Gaming / Political / Religious Nonsense / Re: Make your VEEP predictions! on: September 04, 2008, 10:24:17 PM
So you don't think the election should hinge on Experience because it's vitally important for the country...just because it's an efficient means to package and market your chosen candidate at the expense of his opponent.  That's refreshingly honest, YellowKing, but it would have saved a lot of time if you'd said that up front rather than pretending to have a principled argument to make.

Again, you're taking my words and making everything a black or white issue. Of course I think experience is vitally important for the country - after all, I'm the one actually backing a candidate who has that experience. At the same time, it's also without question one of McCain's strongest arguments against Obama. It's not an either/or.

I find it really funny that the Obama-leaners are repeatedly criticizing McCain for <gasp> trying to win an election! How dare he! If you believe in your policies, and believe your opponent's policies are the wrong direction, then you absolutely have every right to try to defeat your opponent. Do you honestly think Obama is not trying to win an election, but simply mindlessly embarking on a crusade for the good of America? Come on. He has one of the most sophisticated, well-run campaigns I've ever seen. If you don't think Obama's a politician through and through, just like McCain, then you're deluding yourself. Both of these guys want the job, and will do what they have to do to get it.
1793  Non-Gaming / Political / Religious Nonsense / Re: Make your VEEP predictions! on: September 04, 2008, 08:45:17 PM
If Experience is not the single most important factor in selecting a president, why do you believe this election "should be a referendum on McCain's experience versus Obama's inexperience?"

Because it's a valid argument, and probably the best single argument McCain has against him. McCain can't compete on charisma, and whether he competes on policy depends on where you stand on the political spectrum. But the argument that McCain is more experienced to deal with crisis and policy decisions is an argument that can cut across party lines and influence swing voters.
1794  Non-Gaming / Off-Topic / Re: Are you an "older gamer?" on: September 04, 2008, 08:33:53 PM
Back then, gameplay ruled, not graphics (as games most definitely did not have them).

Today, it's completely the opposite.

There's a reason for that.

I read an interview with Chris Taylor (I think) one time where he was talking about how years ago, one artist could produce one RTS unit with animations in about a week. Today, it takes that same artist a month to produce one RTS unit, due to the complexity of modern graphics.

We're in a situation now where games require more manpower and more money to look good than they ever did in the past, so gameplay suffers. A game developer only has so many resources to spread around. In today's climate with such heavy competition, they've got to stand out from the pack. The easiest way to do that is with the visuals. Unfortunately most games don't have time to sell themselves with gameplay - they've got to impress right up front. Graphics get the focus, gameplay gets the shaft.

1795  Non-Gaming / Political / Religious Nonsense / Re: Make your VEEP predictions! on: September 04, 2008, 08:23:13 PM
a) the single greatest factor in determining a person's fitness to be President of the United States, as evidenced by your support for John McCain, and

b) among the least important factors in choosing a Vice President, as evidenced by your support for McCain's chosen running mate, Sarah Palin.

Is that correct?

A) I never said it had to be the single greatest factor. Is it a big factor? Certainly.

B) I never said it had to be the least important factor. Is it less important factor than choosing a President? Certainly.

1796  Non-Gaming / Political / Religious Nonsense / Re: Make your VEEP predictions! on: September 04, 2008, 08:20:58 PM
You're just selecting the facts that would support your conclusion and ignoring facts that don't.

That's a pretty funny accusation considering you're doing exactly the same thing on a much larger scale.

You can't weigh all of these scenarios equally, because they're not equal. An assassination does not hold the same statistical chance as a health issue or resignation. And even worse, you're doing it across decades. A health issue in 1848 certainly holds a different statistical chance as a health issue in 2008, due to medical advances alone. If you're going to claim that McCain has a higher chance of leaving office due to his age, then why am I not allowed to claim he has a lower chance of leaving office due to assassination, based on political climate and security advances?

I'm not going to stand here and tell you I can weigh all those factors and come up with a percentage chance that John McCain will exit his term early. That would be a monumental task that would require all kinds of statistical calculations taking into account year, political climate, etc. But I can tell you that generalizing it as "9 out of the 34 left office early, thus the chance is 26%" is a gross oversimplification.

It's the equivalent of taking 36 separate buckets of ping pong balls, and selecting a ball at random. 9 out of the 36 you pick are yellow instead of white. Then you hand me a new bucket of ping pong balls, and confidently tell me that my chance of picking out a yellow ball are statistically pretty high. That seems pretty reasonable on the surface, right? Except in this case, every bucket of ping pong balls contains a different number of balls, and every bucket contains a different ratio of yellow to white balls. In other words, your statistics now tell me nothing about MY bucket, because you haven't controlled for the factors that determine the statistical possibility (number of total balls per bucket and ratio of yellow to white balls per bucket).

In short, I think it's impossible to predict the chances of a VP taking over for a President based on historical data. One can only predict it given current factors. Your argument is deeply flawed.
1797  Non-Gaming / Political / Religious Nonsense / Re: Make your VEEP predictions! on: September 04, 2008, 07:26:32 PM
No, the point Democrats are making is that Republicans cannot center their entire campaign on the theme of experience and then pick a running mate who comes up short by every measurement of the word.  The Republicans are the ones who brought this issue to the table wanted to use it to sweep every other topic away, so they are the ones who have to explain why, very suddenly, the rules are totally different.

Sure they can. Palin is not running for President. This campaign is not about Sarah Palin, no more than it's about Joe Biden.


1798  Non-Gaming / Political / Religious Nonsense / Re: Make your VEEP predictions! on: September 04, 2008, 06:47:33 PM
And yet another failure to address the points made above regarding experience and the statistical chances of Palin taking over as President...unsurprising, but disappointing.

I didn't respond because it wasn't a compelling argument. However, if you insist:

Out of the 9 you mentioned, only 4 were due to health reasons, the most likely McCain scenario. It's not likely he'll be assassinated, nor is it likely he will pull a Nixon and resign. So that leaves 4 Presidents in the last 147 years who have had to step down due to health issues, and the last one was 63 years ago.

And you seriously think you've somehow made a point? I said few and far between, and that's exactly what your counter-argument proves.
1799  Non-Gaming / Political / Religious Nonsense / Re: Make your VEEP predictions! on: September 04, 2008, 05:13:00 PM
if a simple task like researching your running mate is such a botched job, how can you expect to invoke voter confidence in your ability to govern?

Whether or not it was a botched job depends on your viewpoint. I don't believe it was a botched job. McCain re-energized his base, may eventually gain in the female demographic he was weak in, and ignited Republican voter enthusiasm. Palin has already paid dividends in fund-raising, and has stolen a great deal of media attention away from Obama. She's also received very good reviews for her first major speech by the press.
1800  Non-Gaming / Off-Topic / Re: Are you an "older gamer?" on: September 04, 2008, 04:59:23 PM
33, and have been playing video games since I was 5. So I guess that makes me one.  icon_biggrin
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