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Author Topic: What Would Another Korean War Mean?  (Read 1713 times)
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ATB
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« on: April 03, 2008, 12:38:10 PM »

Now, it's obvious that NK's 'god emperor' is saber rattling but what would the impacts of another war in Korea be?

Would China join the side of the North again?  Would the US pull out of the ME and join the war in Asia?  Would Taiwan see that as an opportunity to formally cede? Would it begin as tactical and then go nuclear?

What would happen? 
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whiteboyskim
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« Reply #1 on: April 03, 2008, 03:24:57 PM »

I think even China secretly can't stand "the little god emperor who thought he could." A war in that region is bad for everyone in that part of the world, China, Japan, Malaysia, et al. Should mister "I'm Ronry" start something I think the US would be just one among many who would finally say enough is enough. That's just my thinking though.
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CeeKay
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« Reply #2 on: April 03, 2008, 03:30:02 PM »

in 20 years we'd have a whole new M*A*S*H* TV series?
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« Reply #3 on: April 03, 2008, 09:10:56 PM »

I think so long as GWB doesn't start talking about the US having bases in NK for the next 100 or 1000 years, China would support South Korea.

But seeing as how GWB is willing to pretend North Korea doesn't exist since his attitude there contradicts both his stance on WMD and spreadin' duhmockracy, the whole issue is pretty much one China needs to be the major player in... and I'm pretty sure they don't want NK lobbing nukes around.
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Mr. Fed
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« Reply #4 on: April 04, 2008, 11:12:30 PM »

Seoul is within range of North Korean artillery and some of its rockets.  Seoul would be toast pretty quickly even with a conventional war.
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CSL
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« Reply #5 on: April 05, 2008, 06:15:24 AM »

Quote from: ATB on April 03, 2008, 12:38:10 PM

Would China join the side of the North again?

No. China has as much to lose with NK going apeshit as does South Korea, Japan, and the United States. They would probably invade from the north to clean up and install a better puppet dictatorship if at all possible.

Quote
Would the US pull out of the ME and join the war in Asia?

No. You'd see drawbacks from Afghanistan but the majority of the fighting won't be done by Americans - instead it'll mostly be South Koreans and the Japanese who would certainly be upfront about helping out the South Koreans. Plus the aforementioned Chinese. If it goes on for more than a few weeks the United Nations and NATO will start sending in forces as well.
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Would Taiwan see that as an opportunity to formally cede?

No. The Taiwanese government isn't run by fools and idiots.

Quote
Would it begin as tactical and then go nuclear?

The North Koreans might use a nuke or two if they really have them, which would probably lead to a limited exchange - probably only against Pyongyang from our side. American leadership, especially within the military will be dead set against using nukes - at least against urban centers - since it won't make any huge sense. Any North Korean attack will be aimed at the Japanese and will probably succeed in killing a few million Japanese. Seoul itself will have been destroyed almost entirely by conventional methods by the second or third day. If anything the Japanese will be the ones very adament for launching retaliatory nuclear attacks on North Korean cities, with American military leaders wanting to using nuclear weapons only for tactical purposes to stem the early North Korean conventional attacks.

Quote
What would happen?

At least eight million killed in South Korea. Ten million killed in North Korea. One or two million killed in Japan if the North Koreans have workable nuclear weapons small enough to fit on their rockets, more if they have more than two or three warheads and if the missile shield doesn't actually work (i'm betting it doesn't). At least several hundred thousand Chinese killed and at least tens of thousands of Americans killed. The war is a foregone conclusion as North Korea just goes out with a bang - Pyongyang is probably utterly destroyed, other larger urban centers might be depending on how many Japanese cities are hit by nukes. The Korean Peninsula is probably not reunited and the North is taken over as a Chinese puppet state with closer strings but is generally written off as a functional state for decades. Perhaps the most important thing on the long term is that Japan rearms increasingly and becomes increasing hawkish - something China doesn't want. American involvement is probably overstated.

But i'm just rambling.
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helot2000
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« Reply #6 on: April 05, 2008, 01:40:23 PM »

Quote from: CSL on April 05, 2008, 06:15:24 AM

.......
But I'm just rambling.
Nicely done.  I see in your post the bones of a 900 page, Clancy-like novel, CSL.   icon_smile
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CSL
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« Reply #7 on: April 05, 2008, 07:31:35 PM »

Quote from: helot2000 on April 05, 2008, 01:40:23 PM

Quote from: CSL on April 05, 2008, 06:15:24 AM

.......
But I'm just rambling.
Nicely done.  I see in your post the bones of a 900 page, Clancy-like novel, CSL.   icon_smile

Awesome. I think i'm pretty good at stilted not-very-good-but-passable dialog as well.
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CeeKay
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« Reply #8 on: April 05, 2008, 11:51:09 PM »

Quote from: CSL on April 05, 2008, 07:31:35 PM

Quote from: helot2000 on April 05, 2008, 01:40:23 PM

Quote from: CSL on April 05, 2008, 06:15:24 AM

.......
But I'm just rambling.
Nicely done.  I see in your post the bones of a 900 page, Clancy-like novel, CSL.   icon_smile

Awesome. I think i'm pretty good at stilted not-very-good-but-passable dialog as well.

just have someone write it and slap your name on it.
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CSL
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« Reply #9 on: April 06, 2008, 04:11:58 AM »

Quote from: CeeKay on April 05, 2008, 11:51:09 PM

Quote from: CSL on April 05, 2008, 07:31:35 PM

Quote from: helot2000 on April 05, 2008, 01:40:23 PM

Quote from: CSL on April 05, 2008, 06:15:24 AM

.......
But I'm just rambling.
Nicely done.  I see in your post the bones of a 900 page, Clancy-like novel, CSL.   icon_smile

Awesome. I think i'm pretty good at stilted not-very-good-but-passable dialog as well.

just have someone write it and slap your name on it.

Ghostwriters come for my inevitable Flashpoint: Korea series.
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Blackadar
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« Reply #10 on: April 06, 2008, 06:16:37 PM »

What Would Another Korean War Mean?  McCain got elected and felt the need to justify his own legacy...cause NK isn't going to start anything.
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« Reply #11 on: April 06, 2008, 07:33:46 PM »

Quote from: Blackadar on April 06, 2008, 06:16:37 PM

What Would Another Korean War Mean?  McCain got elected and felt the need to justify his own legacy...cause NK isn't going to start anything.

There's no oil in North Korea.  McClone isn't going to concern himself with it, even if they DO start nuking people.
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