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Author Topic: The 2012 Presidential Election: Obama Wins!!!!!!  (Read 9949 times)
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pr0ner
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« Reply #160 on: October 19, 2012, 01:31:28 AM »

Childish thread is childish.
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Eco-Logic
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« Reply #161 on: October 19, 2012, 01:43:01 AM »

Glad you decided to join us Pr0ner smile

For ever "prespredict" site you post showing Obama the run away favorite, I can show you one showing Romney as the favorite.
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« Reply #162 on: October 19, 2012, 02:12:44 AM »

Quote from: Eco-Logic on October 19, 2012, 01:43:01 AM

For ever "prespredict" site you post showing Obama the run away favorite, I can show you one showing Romney as the favorite.

well?
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« Reply #163 on: October 19, 2012, 02:24:50 AM »

Quote from: pr0ner on October 19, 2012, 01:31:28 AM

Childish thread is childish.

When THIS guy thinks something's childish you KNOW you're in trouble.
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« Reply #164 on: October 19, 2012, 02:29:28 AM »

Quote from: Knightshade Dragon on October 18, 2012, 10:52:22 PM


Will you Democrats PLEASE stop letting Republicans call the wealthy "job creators"? Yes, millionaires create jobs. They also destroy jobs and outsource jobs...whatever will make themselves richer. The implication that we should be grateful makes me want to hurl. So don't let them get away with that anymore, OK? TIA.
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« Reply #165 on: October 19, 2012, 07:02:10 AM »

What worries me is the reaction of a lot of Republicans, who have been following a lot of these less than independent polls telling them that their guy has got in the bag, if they end up losing the election. They're going to end up thinking that someone stole the election even though most sane people will realize that Obama's had a 75% chance of winning for the longest time now.
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Eco-Logic
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« Reply #166 on: October 19, 2012, 10:42:43 AM »

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/2012_elections_electoral_college_map.html




I still cannot comprehend the notion that this election is "in the bag" for anyone.

Canuck, do you even live here?  Maybe that explains it.  Is the media in Canada saying ya "in the bag".

By the way, real clear politics has used already in this thread to "prove" the electoral college lead to me...
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« Reply #167 on: October 19, 2012, 10:43:38 AM »

Still not typing right on this iPhone, auto correct ftw.
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« Reply #168 on: October 19, 2012, 11:20:20 AM »

Quote from: Eco-Logic on October 19, 2012, 10:42:43 AM

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/2012_elections_electoral_college_map.html




I still cannot comprehend the notion that this election is "in the bag" for anyone.

Canuck, do you even live here?  Maybe that explains it.  Is the media in Canada saying ya "in the bag".

By the way, real clear politics has used already in this thread to "prove" the electoral college lead to me...

Because RCP is calling more states "Toss-ups" than any other major site. Hell, even Karl Rove has Obama with more Electoral votes than Romney (with even more toss ups!). WARNING! Fox News link for the Karl Rove info: here.

In the EC, Obama has been leading the entire time by a large margin. Most statistical analysis of polling data has Obama winning the EC if the election was held today (which it effectively is with early voting). The only reason the media here is emphasizing the popular vote is because it requires no explanation and it paints the picture that the election has been really close. Which it really hasn't been in the EC.

538 has Obama back to 70/30 today and gaining (again).
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« Reply #169 on: October 19, 2012, 01:52:13 PM »

Quote from: Ironrod on October 19, 2012, 02:29:28 AM

Quote from: Knightshade Dragon on October 18, 2012, 10:52:22 PM


Will you Democrats PLEASE stop letting Republicans call the wealthy "job creators"? Yes, millionaires create jobs. They also destroy jobs and outsource jobs...whatever will make themselves richer. The implication that we should be grateful makes me want to hurl. So don't let them get away with that anymore, OK? TIA.

And the other points I laid out?   Are ANY of those defensible? 
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« Reply #170 on: October 19, 2012, 02:01:49 PM »

Quote from: Eco-Logic on October 19, 2012, 10:42:43 AM


I still cannot comprehend the notion that this election is "in the bag" for anyone.


I still cannot comprehend the notion that even when you're asked multiple times to provide any other evidence to support this data (especially after it's been shown to you that it's suspect based on the way it views toss ups), you just keep shoving this one graph under everyone's noses.  Everyone else has posted numerous graphs and polls that shows Obama in the lead.
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« Reply #171 on: October 19, 2012, 02:22:08 PM »

When I go to websites like Town Hall.com (don't ask me why-I guess it's a sick fetish) I see headlines screaming out how Romney "killed it" in the second debate when he clearly didn't-even if he didn't lose badly. Even the most liberal blogs agreed that Obama blew it in the first debate. I'm guessing that Townhall.com has a fairly significant conservative following and the lines that they are being fed are just completely at odds with reality. It just seems to me that some people are going to be in for a huge shock if nothing changes significantly between now and the election. Am I confident that Obama is going to pull it off? Yes, fairly, but I acknowledge that there is a chance that Romney could squeak it out. American voters have done crazier stuff before, like re-elect Bush to a second term.
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« Reply #172 on: October 19, 2012, 02:30:04 PM »

Quote from: Canuck on October 19, 2012, 02:22:08 PM

American voters have done crazier stuff before, like re-elect Bush to a second term.

USA! USA! USA!
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« Reply #173 on: October 19, 2012, 09:04:28 PM »

Quote from: ATB on October 19, 2012, 02:30:04 PM

Quote from: Canuck on October 19, 2012, 02:22:08 PM

American voters have done crazier stuff before, like re-elect Bush to a second term.

USA! USA! USA!

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« Reply #174 on: October 19, 2012, 10:21:56 PM »

Quote from: Knightshade Dragon on October 19, 2012, 01:52:13 PM

Quote from: Ironrod on October 19, 2012, 02:29:28 AM

Quote from: Knightshade Dragon on October 18, 2012, 10:52:22 PM


Will you Democrats PLEASE stop letting Republicans call the wealthy "job creators"? Yes, millionaires create jobs. They also destroy jobs and outsource jobs...whatever will make themselves richer. The implication that we should be grateful makes me want to hurl. So don't let them get away with that anymore, OK? TIA.

And the other points I laid out?   Are ANY of those defensible? 

I agree with your post. Just used that one point to go off about a personal peeve.
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« Reply #175 on: October 19, 2012, 10:35:50 PM »

Son of a motherless goat!!!,we get The Daily Show 24 hrs after you guys,it's always on Comedy Central Xtra,so i series link it so i can watch it every night at a later time just before i go to bed(2-3am)..only tonight's episode because its the Obama episode they decide to put it on the main Comedy Central channel...meaning my series link doesn't record it(they put an old episode of Fraiser on in its place on CCX),pissed right off i am icon_mad
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« Reply #176 on: October 20, 2012, 12:20:25 AM »

Obama diagnoses Romney with "Romnesia". This clip is worth watching.

Salt Lake Tribune agrees; endorses Obama. Yeah, that Salt Lake. The one in Utah. Yeah, that Utah. The one with all the Mormons.

Quote
From his embrace of the party’s radical right wing, to subsequent portrayals of himself as a moderate champion of the middle class, Romney has raised the most frequently asked question of the campaign: "Who is this guy, really, and what in the world does he truly believe?"

The evidence suggests no clear answer, or at least one that would survive Romney’s next speech or sound bite. Politicians routinely tailor their words to suit an audience. Romney, though, is shameless, lavishing vastly diverse audiences with words, any words, they would trade their votes to hear.

Ouch.
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« Reply #177 on: October 20, 2012, 01:09:23 AM »

This isn't that surprising, IMO.  The Trib is considered the "liberal" paper around here, and doesn't have any direct affiliation with the LDS church.  Now if the Deseret news endorsed Romney, that'd be big news.
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« Reply #178 on: October 20, 2012, 12:51:41 PM »

It has just been revealed to me that Romney will win.

 crybaby
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« Reply #179 on: October 20, 2012, 04:03:37 PM »

Quote from: ATB on October 20, 2012, 12:51:41 PM

It has just been revealed to me that Romney will win.

 crybaby

DAMN YOU, DOCTOR WHO!
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« Reply #180 on: October 21, 2012, 01:06:22 AM »

Ah crap.


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« Reply #181 on: October 22, 2012, 12:15:43 PM »

Quote from: hepcat on October 19, 2012, 02:24:50 AM

Quote from: pr0ner on October 19, 2012, 01:31:28 AM

Childish thread is childish.

When THIS guy thinks something's childish you KNOW you're in trouble.

Oh, the irony.
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« Reply #182 on: October 22, 2012, 01:31:15 PM »

Quote from: pr0ner on October 22, 2012, 12:15:43 PM

Quote from: hepcat on October 19, 2012, 02:24:50 AM

Quote from: pr0ner on October 19, 2012, 01:31:28 AM

Childish thread is childish.

When THIS guy thinks something's childish you KNOW you're in trouble.

Oh, the irony.

When THIS guy thinks something's ironic...

...it's probably not.
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« Reply #183 on: October 23, 2012, 03:08:32 AM »

Well, agreeing with most of the president's foreign policy was an interesting and unexpected strategy. On one hand, Romney eased a lot of people's fears about being another Bush-style cowboy warmonger. OTOH, his base has to be wondering if he switched parties.
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« Reply #184 on: October 23, 2012, 06:16:41 PM »

Quote from: Ironrod on October 23, 2012, 03:08:32 AM

Well, agreeing with most of the president's foreign policy was an interesting and unexpected strategy. On one hand, Romney eased a lot of people's fears about being another Bush-style cowboy warmonger. OTOH, his base has to be wondering if he switched parties.


Don't worry - it was only for an hour. Two, tops.
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« Reply #185 on: October 24, 2012, 09:05:20 PM »

Thoughts now?

Looks to me like Romney's momentum continues, and he has drawn even in Ohio.

In addition, his lead amongst independents cannot be denied.

I'm encouraged 😊
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« Reply #186 on: October 25, 2012, 12:28:35 AM »

Quote from: Eco-Logic on October 24, 2012, 09:05:20 PM

Thoughts now?

Looks to me like Romney's momentum continues, and he has drawn even in Ohio.

In addition, his lead amongst independents cannot be denied.

I'm encouraged 😊
You are  bad at  reading polls.

Not to say things can't change, but right now the polling favors Obama. But if you want to cherry-picking polls that reinforce your pre-existing beliefs, knock yourself out.
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« Reply #187 on: October 25, 2012, 01:22:00 AM »

Didn't I already say who the winner was and punctuate it with a  crybaby?

I predicted the success of the Wii, btw.

/Thread.

slywink
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« Reply #188 on: October 25, 2012, 02:34:12 AM »

Quote from: Captain Caveman on October 25, 2012, 12:28:35 AM

Quote from: Eco-Logic on October 24, 2012, 09:05:20 PM

Thoughts now?

Looks to me like Romney's momentum continues, and he has drawn even in Ohio.

In addition, his lead amongst independents cannot be denied.

I'm encouraged
You are  bad at  reading polls.

Not to say things can't change, but right now the polling favors Obama. But if you want to cherry-picking polls that reinforce your pre-existing beliefs, knock yourself out.


but he's got SOURCES!!!!  he can trade you link for link all day long WITH THE SAME LINK!!!!

TREMBLE at his secret ELECTORAL MAP!

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« Reply #189 on: October 25, 2012, 03:42:38 AM »

Quote from: Eco-Logic on October 24, 2012, 09:05:20 PM

Thoughts now?

My crystal balls say that the popular vote will essentially be tied (maybe 100k margin for the winner), while Obama will win about 300 EC votes. But ask me again in a week.   icon_smile
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Eco-Logic
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« Reply #190 on: October 25, 2012, 10:59:36 AM »



I'm no worse, or "selective" than you...

Romney is leading in most reputable national polls, and in those polls, plus the lesser known polls where he is losing he is within the margin of error and LEADING amongst independents.

In addition, many swing states that has been thought to be Obama locks are either now tied or show Romney with a lead.

Many democratic pundits have voiced major concerns over this the past week.

Tis you that is:
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« Reply #191 on: October 25, 2012, 11:14:30 AM »

I'm still feeling quietly confident.  I am certainly looking forward to an Obama victory just so I can see the tears of rage from Eco-logic.  I could be wrong but I also think that you are putting way too much faith in the national polls and in the fact that swing states are getting tighter. Romney does need "many" swing states, he needs almost all of them.  Obama can hang onto Ohio and take a couple of others and he'll be safe.
Also, if a swing state was an Obama lock then it was never a swing state to begin with.
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« Reply #192 on: October 25, 2012, 11:21:13 AM »

Quote from: Eco-Logic on October 25, 2012, 10:59:36 AM

I'm no worse, or "selective" than you...

Romney is leading in most reputable national polls, and in those polls, plus the lesser known polls where he is losing he is within the margin of error and LEADING amongst independents.

In addition, many swing states that has been thought to be Obama locks are either now tied or show Romney with a lead.

Many democratic pundits have voiced major concerns over this the past week.

Everyone has selection bias, but that's what sites like RCP (without tossups), FiveThirtyEight and the Princeton elections page are designed to combat. If you (attempt) to remove selection bias, Obama has lead the whole election in the EC. The. Whole. Time. Right now, he's forecasted to get ~ 290 and he's never dipped below 270.

The media narrative is that it is close. To continue this narrative, they've started running stories about the EC being tied. The chance of this happening is around 0.5% according to 538, or roughly the same chance that Obama will win with a double digit popular vote margin.

Ohio, btw, has announced that over 800,000 votes have already been cast here. With over 600,000 being vote by mail (meaning cast prior to the third debate). That's about 14% of the votes cast in 2008.
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« Reply #193 on: October 25, 2012, 12:40:04 PM »

Quote from: Eco-Logic on October 25, 2012, 10:59:36 AM

I'm no worse, or "selective" than you...

Yes, you are. I'm looking at aggregate sites, which is the exact opposite of being selective.

There is an important difference between letting the data dictate your beliefs and letting your beliefs dictate the data you deem relevant.
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« Reply #194 on: October 25, 2012, 01:49:41 PM »

I do not see the logic of putting so much weight on the RCP no tossup map?
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« Reply #195 on: October 25, 2012, 01:52:37 PM »

Quote from: Eco-Logic on October 25, 2012, 01:49:41 PM

I do not see the logic of putting so much weight on the RCP no tossup map?

Because the toss-up map is irrelevant. It tells you nothing about the potential outcomes.
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« Reply #196 on: October 25, 2012, 02:43:50 PM »

Sure it does.

Whatever though, I'm more encouraged by Romney's lead amongst Independents in almost every poll than I am anything else.
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« Reply #197 on: October 25, 2012, 03:18:33 PM »

Quote from: Eco-Logic on October 25, 2012, 02:43:50 PM

Sure it does.

I'm convinced.
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« Reply #198 on: October 25, 2012, 03:19:20 PM »

Quote from: Canuck on October 25, 2012, 11:14:30 AM

I'm still feeling quietly confident.  I am certainly looking forward to an Obama victory just so I can see the tears of rage from Eco-logic.

Conversely, I'm almost willing to sit through a Romney presidency so that when unemployment either stays where it's at, or creeps up more, I can just keep posting "I told you so" over and over again for 4 years.   icon_wink
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« Reply #199 on: October 25, 2012, 03:24:25 PM »

I've avoided R&P for the most part over the past 4 years, until election time smile
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