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Author Topic: So. Why Couldn't the Mumbai Attacks Happen in AnyCity USA/EU?  (Read 5084 times)
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brettmcd
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« Reply #40 on: December 23, 2008, 01:41:54 AM »

What would be more likely to happen with a ship, and would be damaging as well is to sink a large ship in a shipping channel closing down a port for a period of time.
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Drazzil
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« Reply #41 on: December 23, 2008, 03:44:33 PM »

First, how hard would it be to set up a completely legitimate looking ID and cargo manifest for a cargo ship? Not hard I think, second, all you have to do is sail the ship to within a mile or two of target.
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VynlSol
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« Reply #42 on: December 23, 2008, 04:07:56 PM »

/facepalm
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gellar
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« Reply #43 on: December 23, 2008, 04:50:17 PM »

Quote from: Drazzil on December 23, 2008, 03:44:33 PM

First, how hard would it be to set up a completely legitimate looking ID and cargo manifest for a cargo ship? Not hard I think, second, all you have to do is sail the ship to within a mile or two of target.

Especially if they are invisible.

gellar
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CeeKay
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« Reply #44 on: December 23, 2008, 04:58:10 PM »

Quote from: gellar on December 23, 2008, 04:50:17 PM

Quote from: Drazzil on December 23, 2008, 03:44:33 PM

First, how hard would it be to set up a completely legitimate looking ID and cargo manifest for a cargo ship? Not hard I think, second, all you have to do is sail the ship to within a mile or two of target.

Especially if they are invisible.

gellar

but where would they get a cloak that big?  they'd have to hijack a clothing factory that makes them and knit a bunch of them together.  I bet a place that specializes in cloaks for fat people would be the most efficient way to go with more fabric per cloak and less knitting to do- maybe we should start locking all of them down....
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cheeba
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« Reply #45 on: December 23, 2008, 05:21:03 PM »

If they're invisible we could just modify the deflector array to emit an inverse tachyon pulse. That always does the trick.
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« Reply #46 on: December 23, 2008, 05:32:14 PM »

Quote from: cheeba on December 23, 2008, 05:21:03 PM

If they're invisible we could just modify the deflector array to emit an inverse tachyon pulse. That always does the trick.

that's what they'd expect us to do.
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ATB
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« Reply #47 on: December 23, 2008, 06:16:11 PM »

Quote from: Drazzil on December 23, 2008, 03:44:33 PM

within a mile or two of target.

I don't want to pile on here, but unless you're looking at some kind of dirty bomb with radiation that would sweep into the coastline on sea winds, the only thing an explosion two miles away would do is possibly cause a window or two to rattle and briefly light up the sky...if it was night.

No explosion is that big....even nuclear ones.
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Eduardo X
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« Reply #48 on: December 23, 2008, 06:31:06 PM »

Quote from: SensuousLettuce on December 23, 2008, 06:16:11 PM

Quote from: Drazzil on December 23, 2008, 03:44:33 PM

within a mile or two of target.

I don't want to pile on here, but unless you're looking at some kind of dirty bomb with radiation that would sweep into the coastline on sea winds, the only thing an explosion two miles away would do is possibly cause a window or two to rattle and briefly light up the sky...if it was night.

No explosion is that big....even nuclear ones.
Nuclear ones are pretty big, sir. Here are some stats from a random website.
The Tsar Bomba had a fireball probably 5.2 miles in diameter, if not more. It was felt over 1000 kilometers away, and caused 3rd degree burns 100km away.

Castle Bravo, a 25 megaton bomb, had a fireball 4.5 miles in diameter.

Terrorists wouldn't have anything even a 100th of this power, though. Or a cargo ship.

Ever.
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Drazzil
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« Reply #49 on: December 23, 2008, 07:02:56 PM »

Okay, you know what? You folks attacking the idea need to do some research. A tanker full of sodium nitrate (read liquid fertilizer) would go off with the strength of two or three Heroshima(sp?)/Nagasaki explosions, at least. You only need to come within a two miles or so of any major commercial port, and detonate the whole tanker. No more docks.

Remember Oklahoma City? That was only done with a truck full of this stuff. Imagine a supertanker/Cargo barge full of cheaply made, easily obtainable liquid fertilizer.

Oh, and terrorists hijack cargo ships and oil tankers all the time. For every supertanker you read about being hijacked, there are another five you never hear about because the companies figure it would be better to quietly settle with the Pirates and go about their business.

PS: If you folks think I'm full of it, go ahead, but the PM of India specifically mentoned this scenerio in an NPR briefing about a week ago, as in, shit developed countries need to avoid.
« Last Edit: December 23, 2008, 07:08:37 PM by Drazzil » Logged
ATB
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« Reply #50 on: December 23, 2008, 07:14:27 PM »

Quote from: Eduardo X on December 23, 2008, 06:31:06 PM

Quote from: SensuousLettuce on December 23, 2008, 06:16:11 PM

Quote from: Drazzil on December 23, 2008, 03:44:33 PM

within a mile or two of target.

I don't want to pile on here, but unless you're looking at some kind of dirty bomb with radiation that would sweep into the coastline on sea winds, the only thing an explosion two miles away would do is possibly cause a window or two to rattle and briefly light up the sky...if it was night.

No explosion is that big....even nuclear ones.
Nuclear ones are pretty big, sir. Here are some stats from a random website.
The Tsar Bomba had a fireball probably 5.2 miles in diameter, if not more. It was felt over 1000 kilometers away, and caused 3rd degree burns 100km away.

Castle Bravo, a 25 megaton bomb, had a fireball 4.5 miles in diameter.

Well, shut my mouth.  That...is horrible.  What's the megatonnage of a typical nuclear war head these days?
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ATB
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« Reply #51 on: December 23, 2008, 07:22:12 PM »

http://meyerweb.com/eric/tools/gmap/hydesim.html?inpyield=10000

Shows the blast radius of user specified bombs in major cities.

If I do my math correctly 10000 kilotons = 10 megatons, no?  If so, wow. Put that figure over DC and pretty much the whole surrounding area is gone...and that just assumes one bomb.  Wow.
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ATB
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« Reply #52 on: December 23, 2008, 07:25:10 PM »

According to a site:

The U.S. weapons now fall principally within the 100 Kt to 375 Kt range, the average being approximately 250 Kt. And the majority of Russia weapons are 550 Kt; the average size is roughly 400 Kt.
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ATB
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« Reply #53 on: December 23, 2008, 07:31:36 PM »

Yikes. The more I read about this the less I want to know.  icon_eek
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Eduardo X
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« Reply #54 on: December 23, 2008, 08:59:07 PM »

Quote from: SensuousLettuce on December 23, 2008, 07:31:36 PM

Yikes. The more I read about this the less I want to know.  icon_eek
No kidding. It is just appalling to me that these weapons were ever made. The horror and destruction we have, as humans, at our disposal is just wrong.

A couple of things, though: Tsar Bomba weighed 27 tons. And was never produced as a usable weapon: they just made 1 (though they could make more, and it could weild as many as 100 megatons). The US did make quite a few 4 megaton bombs, and still has them sitting around.

All nuclear bombs need to be detonated in the air for maximum effect. The bomb dropped over Hiroshima was smaller, but the flat terrain of the city made its effects worse. The hilly terrain of Nagasaki kept the damage from the larger bomb more contained, and thus less people died.

Oklahoma City's bomb was pretty small. Here's an aerial view of the destruction.

Also, pirates are not terrorists. Terrorists are terrorists. Pirates have hijacked a Ukrainian vessel with over 30 tanks on board, but they aren't doing anything but asking for money for them. They simply aren't terrorists.
And if they were to hijack a supertanker and try to take it anywhere close to port? It'd be sunk within minutes.
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« Reply #55 on: December 23, 2008, 09:08:29 PM »

That map you linked freaks me out. My building would probably collapse. If I were at work, I'd be vaporized. And that's just at 400kt. The map only goes up to 99 MT.
« Last Edit: December 23, 2008, 09:10:10 PM by Eduardo X » Logged

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Drazzil
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« Reply #56 on: December 23, 2008, 09:26:34 PM »

Pirates aren't terrorists, but they would probabally deal with the highest bidder. I also may be misinformed here but most large cargo ships/supertankers have transponders that identify them as a certain ship, carrying a certain cargo. I dont think it would be the most difficult thing in the world to either set up a shell company to buy a supertanker, if not outright steal one, buy nitrates or liquid nitrates a truckload at a time over a period of time, especially in countries that may not have extensive records.

How hard would it be to pay some corrupt government official in some third world country agriculture department to buy the tonnage of fertilizer necessary to fill a large cargo ship or a supertanker, sail it to within the range that cargo ships start to be scrutinized carefully and blow themselves to hell.

It would certainally take a lot less effort to pull off then 9/11, and a lot less technical know how and luck.
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Kevin Grey
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« Reply #57 on: December 23, 2008, 09:50:40 PM »

Quote from: Drazzil on December 23, 2008, 09:26:34 PM

Pirates aren't terrorists, but they would probabally deal with the highest bidder. I also may be misinformed here but most large cargo ships/supertankers have transponders that identify them as a certain ship, carrying a certain cargo. I dont think it would be the most difficult thing in the world to either set up a shell company to buy a supertanker, if not outright steal one, buy nitrates or liquid nitrates a truckload at a time over a period of time, especially in countries that may not have extensive records.

I said this earlier in the thread but I speak from personal experience when I tell you that there is a LOT of manpower and resources being exerted to look at this problem.  Supercarriers do not just show up unnanounced and enter US ports and those that do come here come with thorough document and crew review and if any discrepancies or concerns come up then those vessels are made to stand offshore (well outside of the two mile radius you mentioned) until they are boarded and inspected. 

These vessels are scrutinized carefully from the moment they file paperwork to come into out ports.
« Last Edit: December 24, 2008, 12:12:54 AM by Kevin Grey » Logged
Jaddison
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« Reply #58 on: December 23, 2008, 10:49:20 PM »

Anyone ever been to the maritime museum in Halifax?  They had an ammo ship explode

The Halifax Explosion occurred on Thursday, December 6, 1917, when the city of Halifax, Nova Scotia, Canada, was devastated by the huge detonation of a French cargo ship, fully loaded with wartime explosives, which accidentally collided with a Norwegian ship in "The Narrows" section of the Halifax Harbour. About 2,000 people were killed by debris, fires, or collapsed buildings and it is estimated that over 9,000 people were injured.[1] This is still the world's largest accidental conventional explosion to date.[2]

At 8:40 in the morning, Mont-Blanc, a French cargo ship that was chartered by the French government to carry munitions, collided with the unloaded Norwegian ship Imo (pronounced E-mo), chartered by the Commission for Relief in Belgium to carry relief supplies. Mont-Blanc caught fire ten minutes after the collision and exploded about twenty-five minutes later (at 9:04:35 AM).[3] All buildings and structures covering nearly two square kilometres along the adjacent shore were obliterated, including those in the neighbouring communities of Richmond and Dartmouth.[1] The explosion caused a tsunami in the harbour and a pressure wave of air that snapped trees, bent iron rails, demolished buildings, grounded vessels, and carried fragments of the Mont-Blanc for kilometres.
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Drazzil
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« Reply #59 on: December 23, 2008, 11:38:44 PM »

Quote from: Kevin Grey on December 23, 2008, 09:50:40 PM

Quote from: Drazzil on December 23, 2008, 09:26:34 PM

Pirates aren't terrorists, but they would probabally deal with the highest bidder. I also may be misinformed here but most large cargo ships/supertankers have transponders that identify them as a certain ship, carrying a certain cargo. I dont think it would be the most difficult thing in the world to either set up a shell company to buy a supertanker, if not outright steal one, buy nitrates or liquid nitrates a truckload at a time over a period of time, especially in countries that may not have extensive records.

I said this earlier in the thread but I speak from personal experience when I tell you that there is a LOT of manpower and resources being exerted to look at this problem.  Supercarriers do not just show up unnanounced and enter US ports and those that do come here come with thorough document and crew review and if any discrepancies or concerns come up then those vessels are made to stand offshore (well outside of the two mile radius you mentioned) until they are boarded and inspected. 

These vessels are scrutinized carefully from the moment they file paperwork to come into out ports.

I hope so.
« Last Edit: December 24, 2008, 12:12:31 AM by Kevin Grey » Logged
Jaddison
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« Reply #60 on: December 24, 2008, 01:02:54 AM »

Here is a synopsis of a GAO report this year

"The report by the Government Accountability Office, being released Tuesday, assesses the Customs-Trade Partnership Against Terrorism (C-TPAT), a federal program established after the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks to deter a potential terrorist strike via cargo passing through 326 of the nation's airports, seaports and designated land borders.

Under the program, roughly 8,000 importers, port authorities and air, sea and land carriers are granted benefits such as reduced scrutiny of their cargo. In exchange, the companies submit a security plan that must meet U.S. Customs and Border Protection's minimum standards and allow officials to verify their measures are being followed.

Among the problems:

-- A company is generally certified as safer based on its self-reported security information that Customs employees use to determine if minimum government criteria are met. But due partly to limited resources, the agency does not typically test the member company's supply-chain security practices and thus is ''challenged to know that members' security measures are reliable, accurate and effective.''

-- Customs employees are not required to utilize third-party or other audits of a company's security measures as an alternative to the agency's direct testing, even if such audits exist.

-- Companies can get certified for reduced Customs inspections before they fully implement any additional security improvements requested by the U.S. government. Under the program, Customs also does not require its employees to systematically follow up to make sure the requested improvements were made and that security practices remained consistent with the minimum criteria."

Doesn't make me think ports are all that safe
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« Reply #61 on: December 26, 2008, 04:32:05 PM »

Quote from: the Nightbreeze on November 29, 2008, 10:10:25 PM

to 2 parts greater opportunity to change one's station in life in the areas in question

The theory of poverty playing a significant role was somewhat dispelled after the London attacks carried out by suspects that were not at all poor.
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« Reply #62 on: December 26, 2008, 10:56:08 PM »

For the actors in that attack, perhaps Poverty was not their causation.  They likely did it out of fevor and angst.

For those who create the militant movements that incite people of a certain persuasion, especially by removing young men from post-primary education and indoctrinating them, you'd have a thoroughly harder time getting me to reconsider my words.

You're 10-12 and your family is starving.  Do you keep going to class, or do you take the man up on his offer to pay you for informing, delivering packages, and guard duties?

If in their shoes, their choice does not surprise me.
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