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Author Topic: So my son asks me, "How is Obama doing, dad?"  (Read 3313 times)
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helot2000
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« on: May 19, 2008, 02:19:05 AM »




He asks me that question every few days since I attended my very first caucus in February.  Today I could tell him "exceedingly well at the moment."  This is what a victory lap in front of an estimated crowd of 75,000 people looks like.  When I told my wife about his record crowd, she smartly reminded me that Portland, Oregon is not middle America.  That's my wife, always there to keep my feet firmly planted on the ground.  Maybe he is going to be that Runaway Train again that he once was in February.  Here's the story from the Washington Post.
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« Reply #1 on: May 19, 2008, 02:46:05 AM »

Your wife is right, but damn, that's pretty insane.
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« Reply #2 on: May 19, 2008, 01:15:19 PM »

Quote
Oregon is not middle America.

True, but Oregon is a predominately white as well - a feat given the racial nonsense that has flown about recently.
(2006 Census states 90.5% white, 1.9% black)  That is quite a feat in itself.
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« Reply #3 on: May 19, 2008, 01:59:29 PM »

Interesting.  My ex is very stong with her pro-Clinton stance.  I recently tried explaining why she felt that way to my son and how the "she does better against McCain" argument doesn't exactly translate on a one-to-one basis, but I only think I confirmed the notion in his head that both of his parents are loons.

Anyhow, if Obama stays on track and wins the Presidency, I'll be immensly curious as to how that impacts the course of our nation.  I'm not foolish enough to think that anything different is always good, but I'm perceptive enough to know that the country badly needs a change for the better.
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« Reply #4 on: May 19, 2008, 03:52:58 PM »

Quote from: Knightshade Dragon on May 19, 2008, 01:15:19 PM

Quote
Oregon is not middle America.

True, but Oregon is a predominately white as well - a feat given the racial nonsense that has flown about recently.
(2006 Census states 90.5% white, 1.9% black)  That is quite a feat in itself.
Also true but Portland does not experience the same type of racial prejudice that lingers on in areas of the South.  Yes, I have lived both in Portland and the South.  My biggest fear is that racial prejudice will prevail in "battleground" states and get another dirty Republican idiot elected.  I'm looking at you, McCain.
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« Reply #5 on: May 19, 2008, 04:39:59 PM »

Salon has a very good analysis of what it's going to take for Obama to get to 270  - usual Salon rules regarding day passes, etc.

Quote
To figure out how Obama can assemble the magic 270, then, let's look at the 17 states where this fall's outcome is not a mortal lock. I am a Democratic pollster -- this presidential election cycle I worked for Bill Richardson, and last time I worked for Howard Dean. But my collection of swing states is not based on current match-up polling between Obama and McCain. I mostly ignored the polls -- come on, it's May. Instead, I looked at long-term voting trends and demographics.

Conclusion:
Spoiler for Hiden:
Clearly, and I'm being cautious, I think it's going to be a close race. If Obama wins the 255 votes in the states where he's favored, then to get to 270 he needs to choose from the following menu: 1) Win Ohio, which takes him to 275; 2) win in the West -- Nevada, New Mexico and Colorado, for 274; 3) win the three N's (Nevada, New Mexico, New Hampshire) for 269, plus one other state; or 4) win two of the three N's and either Colorado or Virginia.

The bottom line is that 270 is achievable, provided the Democratic ticket keeps all of these 17 states in play as long as possible. And it looks like it can. Obama has the money to fight in the truly purple states and force his opponent to defend some of the redder ones. For the moment, McCain doesn't have the money to respond in kind. Obama can stretch McCain's scarcer resources. He can also improve the Democratic Party's odds of breaking through and winning its first Electoral College majority in a dozen years.
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denoginizer
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« Reply #6 on: May 19, 2008, 06:39:52 PM »

Quote from: Pyperkub on May 19, 2008, 04:39:59 PM

Salon has a very good analysis of what it's going to take for Obama to get to 270  - usual Salon rules regarding day passes, etc.

Quote
To figure out how Obama can assemble the magic 270, then, let's look at the 17 states where this fall's outcome is not a mortal lock. I am a Democratic pollster -- this presidential election cycle I worked for Bill Richardson, and last time I worked for Howard Dean. But my collection of swing states is not based on current match-up polling between Obama and McCain. I mostly ignored the polls -- come on, it's May. Instead, I looked at long-term voting trends and demographics.

Conclusion:
Spoiler for Hiden:
Clearly, and I'm being cautious, I think it's going to be a close race. If Obama wins the 255 votes in the states where he's favored, then to get to 270 he needs to choose from the following menu: 1) Win Ohio, which takes him to 275; 2) win in the West -- Nevada, New Mexico and Colorado, for 274; 3) win the three N's (Nevada, New Mexico, New Hampshire) for 269, plus one other state; or 4) win two of the three N's and either Colorado or Virginia.

The bottom line is that 270 is achievable, provided the Democratic ticket keeps all of these 17 states in play as long as possible. And it looks like it can. Obama has the money to fight in the truly purple states and force his opponent to defend some of the redder ones. For the moment, McCain doesn't have the money to respond in kind. Obama can stretch McCain's scarcer resources. He can also improve the Democratic Party's odds of breaking through and winning its first Electoral College majority in a dozen years.

That is an excellent read.  It just shows that even though the country is trending heavily Democratic this year translating that into an Electoral College win will not be as easy as many people think.  Personally I see Obama winning Ohio, Nevada, New Mexico and New Hampshire for a total of 289 and the win. But the margins in those states will be awfully close.
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Eduardo X
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« Reply #7 on: May 19, 2008, 09:31:28 PM »

Quote from: Remus West2 on May 19, 2008, 03:52:58 PM

Quote from: Knightshade Dragon on May 19, 2008, 01:15:19 PM

Quote
Oregon is not middle America.

True, but Oregon is a predominately white as well - a feat given the racial nonsense that has flown about recently.
(2006 Census states 90.5% white, 1.9% black)  That is quite a feat in itself.
Also true but Portland does not experience the same type of racial prejudice that lingers on in areas of the South.  Yes, I have lived both in Portland and the South.  My biggest fear is that racial prejudice will prevail in "battleground" states and get another dirty Republican idiot elected.  I'm looking at you, McCain.
Oregon has had some issues with black people.

Quote
Another section required free blacks over 18 to leave Oregon or be subject to trial. If found guilty, the person was to "receive upon his or her bare back not less than twenty nor more than thirty-nine stripes, to be inflicted by the constable of the proper county." The punishment was to be repeated every six months until the person departed. This "lash law" passed but was soon changed to replace the whipping provisions with ones calling for forced labor followed by removal from Oregon. After a shift in the makeup of the legislature, the law was repealed in 1845.
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« Reply #8 on: May 19, 2008, 10:06:52 PM »

Quote from: Eduardo X on May 19, 2008, 09:31:28 PM

Quote from: Remus West2 on May 19, 2008, 03:52:58 PM

Quote from: Knightshade Dragon on May 19, 2008, 01:15:19 PM

Quote
Oregon is not middle America.

True, but Oregon is a predominately white as well - a feat given the racial nonsense that has flown about recently.
(2006 Census states 90.5% white, 1.9% black)  That is quite a feat in itself.
Also true but Portland does not experience the same type of racial prejudice that lingers on in areas of the South.  Yes, I have lived both in Portland and the South.  My biggest fear is that racial prejudice will prevail in "battleground" states and get another dirty Republican idiot elected.  I'm looking at you, McCain.
Oregon has had some issues with black people.

Quote
Another section required free blacks over 18 to leave Oregon or be subject to trial. If found guilty, the person was to "receive upon his or her bare back not less than twenty nor more than thirty-nine stripes, to be inflicted by the constable of the proper county." The punishment was to be repeated every six months until the person departed. This "lash law" passed but was soon changed to replace the whipping provisions with ones calling for forced labor followed by removal from Oregon. After a shift in the makeup of the legislature, the law was repealed in 1845.

Are you fucking serious?

gellar
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« Reply #9 on: May 19, 2008, 11:46:15 PM »

Quote from: gellar on May 19, 2008, 10:06:52 PM

Quote from: Eduardo X on May 19, 2008, 09:31:28 PM

Quote from: Remus West2 on May 19, 2008, 03:52:58 PM

Quote from: Knightshade Dragon on May 19, 2008, 01:15:19 PM

Quote
Oregon is not middle America.

True, but Oregon is a predominately white as well - a feat given the racial nonsense that has flown about recently.
(2006 Census states 90.5% white, 1.9% black)  That is quite a feat in itself.
Also true but Portland does not experience the same type of racial prejudice that lingers on in areas of the South.  Yes, I have lived both in Portland and the South.  My biggest fear is that racial prejudice will prevail in "battleground" states and get another dirty Republican idiot elected.  I'm looking at you, McCain.
Oregon has had some issues with black people.

Quote
Another section required free blacks over 18 to leave Oregon or be subject to trial. If found guilty, the person was to "receive upon his or her bare back not less than twenty nor more than thirty-nine stripes, to be inflicted by the constable of the proper county." The punishment was to be repeated every six months until the person departed. This "lash law" passed but was soon changed to replace the whipping provisions with ones calling for forced labor followed by removal from Oregon. After a shift in the makeup of the legislature, the law was repealed in 1845.

Are you fucking serious?

gellar

*nod*  I lived on Bly Mountain near Bonanza Oregon.  Let me tell you - it may be 150+ years ago, but you'd think it is just yesterday.  For the Oregon populous to rally for Obama really means a lot I thin.
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« Reply #10 on: May 22, 2008, 01:28:16 AM »

Quote from: Knightshade Dragon on May 19, 2008, 11:46:15 PM

*nod*  I lived on Bly Mountain near Bonanza Oregon.  Let me tell you - it may be 150+ years ago, but you'd think it is just yesterday.  For the Oregon populous to rally for Obama really means a lot I thin.

I used to work for a title company which meant I spent a lot of time reading CC&Rs for various subdivisions.

Many of the older Portland ones have restrictions barring anyone but "those of Caucasian decent."  These were in force until the 60's.  Some of them were in documents recorded in the 1940's.

Oregon has some pretty ugly racial history.

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« Reply #11 on: May 22, 2008, 05:57:48 AM »

Did The Grateful Dead play a free concert prior to Obama taking the stage in Portland? I heard something about this but search engine results aren't confirming it. The Dead have a huge following on the West Coast and in the past the Eugene, Oregon concert was the epicenter for all things Dead - this concert location was considered Mecca and all Dead energy radiated from that single place.   
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« Reply #12 on: May 22, 2008, 08:25:53 AM »

It was The Decemberists that did the free concert before Obama came on.  [link]
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« Reply #13 on: May 22, 2008, 01:58:27 PM »

I thought it was interesting that Hillary touted her win in Kentucky as proof she can win the white, though Oregon has more white people, percentage-wise, than Kentucky.
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« Reply #14 on: May 22, 2008, 04:37:24 PM »

Quote from: Hamsterball_Z on May 22, 2008, 08:25:53 AM

It was The Decemberists that did the free concert before Obama came on.  [link]

Sweet.  Obama should totally rock the 19th-century sea pirate demographic.
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« Reply #15 on: May 22, 2008, 04:38:07 PM »

Quote from: Eduardo X on May 22, 2008, 01:58:27 PM

I thought it was interesting that Hillary touted her win in Kentucky as proof she can win the white, though Oregon has more white people, percentage-wise, than Kentucky.

She meant the white people that matter.  You know, the hard-working ones.
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« Reply #16 on: May 22, 2008, 04:41:05 PM »

Quote from: Freezer-TPF- on May 22, 2008, 04:37:24 PM

Quote from: Hamsterball_Z on May 22, 2008, 08:25:53 AM

It was The Decemberists that did the free concert before Obama came on.  [link]

Sweet.  Obama should totally rock the 19th-century sea pirate demographic.

Superchunk played an Obama rally in North Carolina.  That is how I know he is awesome.
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Eduardo X
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« Reply #17 on: May 22, 2008, 05:02:31 PM »

Quote from: Freezer-TPF- on May 22, 2008, 04:38:07 PM

Quote from: Eduardo X on May 22, 2008, 01:58:27 PM

I thought it was interesting that Hillary touted her win in Kentucky as proof she can win the white, though Oregon has more white people, percentage-wise, than Kentucky.

She meant the white people that matter.  You know, the hard-working ones.
Rather than the unemployed hippy kind. Gotcha!
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« Reply #18 on: May 22, 2008, 05:18:39 PM »

Quote from: Trappin on May 22, 2008, 05:57:48 AM

Did The Grateful Dead play a free concert prior to Obama taking the stage in Portland? I heard something about this but search engine results aren't confirming it. The Dead have a huge following on the West Coast and in the past the Eugene, Oregon concert was the epicenter for all things Dead - this concert location was considered Mecca and all Dead energy radiated from that single place.   

No - they didn't.  The Grateful Dead broke up in 1995 after Jerry Garcia died.  Is the actual intent of your question to intimate that Obama wasn't the main draw?
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« Reply #19 on: May 22, 2008, 11:28:34 PM »

Garcia is dead ?

OMG
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« Reply #20 on: May 22, 2008, 11:30:57 PM »

Quote from: Trappin on May 22, 2008, 11:28:34 PM

Garcia is dead ?

OMG

Don't believe it. Jerry lives!

Somebody miracle me.

Ale
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Trappin
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« Reply #21 on: May 22, 2008, 11:33:03 PM »

EDIT= My intent was to find out if the Dead played Portland. IF they had opened for him then the crowd would have been even larger.

EDIT2= http://www.dead101.com/1335.htm - the site incorrectly states 500,000 people attended the concert.. it was 1M. 1991? Gawd i'm getting old  icon_cry I'll be in the bummer tent. drool





Grateful Dead Reunite for Barack Obama Benefit Show


2/5/08, 9:23 am EST


Barack Obama wants to bring America together, and he has started with the Grateful Dead. The feuding members of the fabled Sixties psychedelic rock group dissolved their business operations several years ago. But last night at the Warfield Theater before a sold out election eve crowd, Bob Weir, Phil Lesh and Mickey Hart were singing “Come Together” on behalf of the Obama campaign in San Francisco.

Before the show, the three living Dead faced the press in a curtained-off nook of the Warfield basement; they had just finished a ninety-minute afternoon soundcheck that would serve as the show’s sole rehearsal. “I think that we all knew Obama was the guy for us, but we hadn’t talked about it because we’d all been doing our own thing,” said bassist Phil Lesh. Mickey Hart admitted that band members hadn’t seen each other in “years and years.” But “we knew instinctively, intuitively that we were all together on this,” said Bob Weir. “We came together and we’re doing it.”
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« Reply #22 on: May 23, 2008, 10:46:47 PM »

Hillary let slip that she should stay in the race, because, you know, Obama might get shot during the Primaries. The Trilateral Commission must be pissed that their plans have been announced.
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« Reply #23 on: May 27, 2008, 05:59:14 PM »

Quote from: Moliere on May 23, 2008, 10:46:47 PM

Hillary let slip that she should stay in the race, because, you know, Obama might get shot during the Primaries. The Trilateral Commission must be pissed that their plans have been announced.

I don't see how the party hasn't absolutely thrown her ass out after that comment. That McCain sure is a smart guy - just sit back and note the damage.  *sigh*
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« Reply #24 on: May 27, 2008, 06:02:13 PM »

Quote from: Knightshade Dragon on May 27, 2008, 05:59:14 PM

Quote from: Moliere on May 23, 2008, 10:46:47 PM

Hillary let slip that she should stay in the race, because, you know, Obama might get shot during the Primaries. The Trilateral Commission must be pissed that their plans have been announced.

I don't see how the party hasn't absolutely thrown her ass out after that comment. That McCain sure is a smart guy - just sit back and note the damage.  *sigh*

Agreed.  The "big" meeting for the Democratic Party is on May 31 (to decide FL and MI), so maybe they're just going to deal with it then.
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« Reply #25 on: May 27, 2008, 08:24:41 PM »

Quote from: Blackadar on May 27, 2008, 06:02:13 PM

Quote from: Knightshade Dragon on May 27, 2008, 05:59:14 PM

Quote from: Moliere on May 23, 2008, 10:46:47 PM

Hillary let slip that she should stay in the race, because, you know, Obama might get shot during the Primaries. The Trilateral Commission must be pissed that their plans have been announced.

I don't see how the party hasn't absolutely thrown her ass out after that comment. That McCain sure is a smart guy - just sit back and note the damage.  *sigh*

Agreed.  The "big" meeting for the Democratic Party is on May 31 (to decide FL and MI), so maybe they're just going to deal with it then.

What's to decide?  The decision for FL and MI was made by the DNC before they had their primaries.  There's no issue.  Or at least there shouldn't be.
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« Reply #26 on: May 27, 2008, 09:03:22 PM »

Quote from: Geezer on May 27, 2008, 08:24:41 PM

Quote from: Blackadar on May 27, 2008, 06:02:13 PM

Quote from: Knightshade Dragon on May 27, 2008, 05:59:14 PM

Quote from: Moliere on May 23, 2008, 10:46:47 PM

Hillary let slip that she should stay in the race, because, you know, Obama might get shot during the Primaries. The Trilateral Commission must be pissed that their plans have been announced.

I don't see how the party hasn't absolutely thrown her ass out after that comment. That McCain sure is a smart guy - just sit back and note the damage.  *sigh*

Agreed.  The "big" meeting for the Democratic Party is on May 31 (to decide FL and MI), so maybe they're just going to deal with it then.

What's to decide?  The decision for FL and MI was made by the DNC before they had their primaries.  There's no issue.  Or at least there shouldn't be.

Agreed.  But the Hillary supporters don't feel that way for whatever reason.

I don't understand the Hillary supporters trying to include FL and MI.  It's like you're scheduled to play a soccer game, it's called off due to rain and the other team shows up and kicks the ball in the goal...it's not like it counted.
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« Reply #27 on: May 27, 2008, 10:06:07 PM »

Quote from: Blackadar on May 27, 2008, 09:03:22 PM

Agreed.  But the Hillary supporters don't feel that way for whatever reason.

I don't understand the Hillary supporters trying to include FL and MI.  It's like you're scheduled to play a soccer game, it's called off due to rain and the other team shows up and kicks the ball in the goal...it's not like it counted.
It is going to get worse, much worse, before the end.  I didn't realize the depths of the anger felt by the Hillaristas until NPR devoted a day to the over 45 females expressing a "burn shit down" attitude if their Hillary isn't the Democratic candidate for President.  Some said that since Obama benefited from sexism, they would vote for McCain because putting down sexism is more important than the Presidential election.  Others said they'd write in Hillary on the ticket.  Still others claimed they would actively campaign for and donate to McCain.  By taking the low road (i.e exaggerated claims of sexism leading to her defeat), Hillary is making sure that a percentage of her backers won't back Obama. And then there is this...the Clinton curtain call. 

Quote
The next Democratic donnybrook will be in a Washington ballroom.  Busloads of Hillary Clinton supporters will swarm a meeting next week at a D.C. Marriott, where Democratic Party elders hope to forge a compromise over Florida and Michigan's now-voided convention delegates.
Apparently the Obama supporters were going to stage a counter rally but that is being put down by the Obama camp with this email. 

Quote
I don't mean to rain on anyone's parade, but under direction from Chicago HQ we are being asked NOT to hold any events like this.  For several political and media reasons, I have been asked to relay the message that only those Obama supporters who obtained tickets to sit inside the meeting should attend.  No outside protests/rallies/gatherings, no matter how peaceful/positive/well-intentioned.





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« Reply #28 on: May 28, 2008, 01:52:37 PM »

Quote
Clinton reiterated she is willing to take her quest all the way to the convention in August if Florida and Michigan continue to press their case.

Count on it.  Hillary is a sore loser and an enemy of the Democratic Party.

John McCain's take on the situation:  icon_lol
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« Reply #29 on: May 28, 2008, 02:07:32 PM »

Didn't Michigan "press their case" to the state's Supreme Court, which declared the vote unconsititutional?
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« Reply #30 on: May 28, 2008, 06:22:00 PM »

Quote from: Dan_Theman on May 28, 2008, 02:07:32 PM

Didn't Michigan "press their case" to the state's Supreme Court, which declared the vote unconsititutional?

Oh sure, bring out your 'truth' and 'facts'.  Who needs that crap?!
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