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Author Topic: 3rd Debate - Obama in a romp, says CBS poll  (Read 3073 times)
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Jeff
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« on: October 16, 2008, 01:09:55 PM »

Link

53-22-25% (Obama/McCain/Draw) in a survey of undecided voters.

That's 3 for 3 in the post debate polling, and Obama is now expected to widen his already huge gap, which was at 14 points pre-debate.

Electoral projections site www.fivethirtyeight.com has moved the election into landslide territory now, with Obama projected to take an enormous 353 electoral votes (270 needed to win).

I stand by my position that Palin has been a disastrous choice for McCain, and the McCain/Palin strategy of anger, divisiveness and hate-mongering at their rallies has backfired on them terribly. A cry from a rally member of "Kill him" (Obama) went unchecked and that made news as well. I figured Palin might have been a step away from inviting the KKK to some of her rallies. Hey at least she hasn't accidently called him "Osama" yet, like some FOX news reporters have done.
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« Reply #1 on: October 16, 2008, 02:09:40 PM »

I wonder how the media narrative, and in turn its effect on the electorate, would be different without these instant snap polls of debate winners. I don't think these things were present in previous presidential elections, and there's no doubt that the talking heads now have to create a narrative that jibes with what Americans think instead of telling Americans how they think Americans think. Without these polls, I'm guessing the media, who have a vested financial interest in a close race, would be pimping a McCain "comeback" to high heavens after last night. These polls, though, in effect neuter their power. Who needs pundits to tell us how these debates will play with the voters when we can ask them directly?
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« Reply #2 on: October 16, 2008, 03:37:31 PM »

Quote from: Captain Caveman on October 16, 2008, 02:09:40 PM

I wonder how the media narrative, and in turn its effect on the electorate, would be different without these instant snap polls of debate winners. I don't think these things were present in previous presidential elections, and there's no doubt that the talking heads now have to create a narrative that jibes with what Americans think instead of telling Americans how they think Americans think. Without these polls, I'm guessing the media, who have a vested financial interest in a close race, would be pimping a McCain "comeback" to high heavens after last night. These polls, though, in effect neuter their power. Who needs pundits to tell us how these debates will play with the voters when we can ask them directly?

I disagree with this.  Most of the media want Obama to win; why would they want to push news otherwise?
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« Reply #3 on: October 16, 2008, 04:01:00 PM »

Quote from: pr0ner on October 16, 2008, 03:37:31 PM

I disagree with this.  Most of the media want Obama to win; why would they want to push news otherwise?

Same reason that a liberal bias didn't stop a feeding frenzy over the Monica Lewinski scandal- media likes a narrative that's going to hook viewers/readers. 
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« Reply #4 on: October 16, 2008, 04:02:57 PM »

Quote from: Kevin Grey on October 16, 2008, 04:01:00 PM

Quote from: pr0ner on October 16, 2008, 03:37:31 PM

I disagree with this.  Most of the media want Obama to win; why would they want to push news otherwise?

Same reason that a liberal bias didn't stop a feeding frenzy over the Monica Lewinski scandal- media likes a narrative that's going to hook viewers/readers. 

Touche'.  smile
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« Reply #5 on: October 16, 2008, 04:18:54 PM »

Quote
These polls, though, in effect neuter their power. Who needs pundits to tell us how these debates will play with the voters when we can ask them directly?

I totally agree. I fully expected the media to pounce on the McCain comeback story, but within 5 minutes of watching post-debate coverage I knew they couldn't do it without sounding delusional.

As far as the "Kill Him" story is concerned, Secret Service says the report is unfounded.
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« Reply #6 on: October 16, 2008, 05:37:57 PM »

So, poll aside, what do you think of the debate?
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« Reply #7 on: October 16, 2008, 05:46:58 PM »

Quote from: Turtle on October 16, 2008, 05:37:57 PM

So, poll aside, what do you think of the debate?

I thought that McCain came across as a bitter old man and not someone with the tact to lead the country.  The sad thing is that before all the debates and him picking Palin, I was heavily leaning to vote for him.  I've seen this attitude change from several friends who were originally planning to support McCain based on his 2000 run.  Now, not so much.

Obama, IMHO, came out squeaky clean as his remarks and responses never seemed to get as negative and personal as McCain's.  Like his response to the question whether he thought Palin was fit to run the country:  "I think that's up to the American people to decide.  I respect ..." and went on to list some of the things he respects about her.  In contrast, McCain said that Biden was fit to run the country and then proceeded to sling mud at his voting record, etc, etc and so forth.
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« Reply #8 on: October 16, 2008, 06:06:59 PM »

My favorite part of the debate? This picture:



 icon_lol
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PeteRock
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« Reply #9 on: October 16, 2008, 06:45:13 PM »

I actually felt that McCain grossly misrepresented Obama's policies and even went so far as to make accusations about statements Obama never even made.  And these misrepresentations were even more frustrating when it was apparent in the interviews with Virginia voters that they were naive enough to buy into McCain's ramblings.

And, as expected, the Republican analysts believed that McCain fared better in the debate and drew attention to Obama's constant need to make a number of clarifications about his policies.  But what no one addressed was why he had to make clarifications, which were in response to McCain's misrepresentations and false statements, including moments when McCain would begin with "Obama just said that he wants to raise taxes for everyone and take away your medical coverage" when Obama made no such statements and his policies do no such thing.  On a number of occasions my wife and I would turn to each other with confused expressions following a comment by McCain about Obama's statements to verify that Obama did not in fact make any such statement.  McCain seemed to stick to his prepared agenda even despite times when his prepared comments didn't correctly respond to Obama's statements or policy summaries.

My voting decision has been made for quite some time, and while I attempted to watch each debate with an objective perspective, it rarely took long for me to start screaming at the TV due to gross misrepresentations, inaccurate statements, and what I considered to be a poor showing by McCain across the board in all debates.  His patting the shoulder of the retired Naval officer in the past debate felt so contrived and manipulative, his attempt to take a more offensive approach in this debate came across as desperate, and I hope that Joe The Plumber is intelligent enough to see through McCain's manipulation of Obama's policy summaries.  While some might view Obama's need to make clarifications as a point in McCain's favor, I appreciated his clarifications as they set the record straight rather than allowing McCain to present inaccurate information.  And yet some still bought into it, such as some of the Virginia voters interviewed following the debate.

I honestly fear what could come of our country if McCain is victorious.   
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« Reply #10 on: October 16, 2008, 07:02:30 PM »

Quote from: PeteRock on October 16, 2008, 06:45:13 PM

I hope that Joe The Plumber is intelligent enough to see through McCain's manipulation of Obama's policy summaries.

I don't know about Joe Sixpack, but the actual "Joe The Plumber" that Obama spoke to is a registered Republican who had already decided to vote for McCain prior to the debate.
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« Reply #11 on: October 16, 2008, 07:10:07 PM »

Yeah, there's a whole lot of fear and ignorance being played upon.

I do have to say McCain presented himself as the more confident one, but in the face of the way he misrepresented so many things, that confidence seemed built on ignorance.  People who only look at the candidate in terms of confidence and bravado might be persuaded, but there's more to being a leader.  We got all the bravado with Bush I think.  Obama was definitely forced to defend and clarify, which is bad, but at the same time all we got was a lot of bashing from McCain not so much policy discussion.

Having not followed the debates too well, I actually thought the polls would have gone more for McCain because of this, but it's good to see that there's still a sizeable chunk that saw through it.

The debate was pretty painful to watch.  It's almost like Obama, each time, is going into these wanting to discuss policy and getting a slap fight instead.

edit: that Joe the Plumber article is interesting in that it highlights the republican mindset a bit.  He won't accept tax increases for the well off or wealthy under some idealogical belief, rather than looking at the evidence.
« Last Edit: October 16, 2008, 07:13:21 PM by Turtle » Logged
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« Reply #12 on: October 16, 2008, 07:27:25 PM »

I quickly grew tired of having to turn to my wife and say, "Um, Obama didn't just say that."  It happened a number of times.  If you're going to attack a candidate's policy, at least have a better understanding of said policy.  Most of McCain's critiques were based upon an inaccurate understanding of Obama's plans and his arguments stemmed from misrepresentations and false statements.  For example, following Obama's explanation that employees with existing healthcare plans could maintain their existing plan under his policy, McCain would go on to suggest that Obama's plan intends to take away one's existing healthcare plan and replace it with a different government-mandated program, and he even went so far as to state that Obama just said this moments before when no such event took place.   icon_confused  A number of times McCain accused Obama of making a statement that never took place, or summarized Obama's proposed plans inaccurately or completely incorrectly.

It was in fact painful to watch.   
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« Reply #13 on: October 16, 2008, 07:32:05 PM »

So, I guess the thing is, do we want a president who can't even hear what the person next to him is saying?  Tongue
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« Reply #14 on: October 16, 2008, 07:37:15 PM »

Quote from: Turtle on October 16, 2008, 07:32:05 PM

So, I guess the thing is, do we want a president who can't even hear what the person next to him is saying?  Tongue

Can't hear, or won't listen?  I'd have to say that the latter concerns me more.
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Jeff
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« Reply #15 on: October 16, 2008, 07:43:01 PM »

Quote from: PeteRock on October 16, 2008, 07:37:15 PM

Quote from: Turtle on October 16, 2008, 07:32:05 PM

So, I guess the thing is, do we want a president who can't even hear what the person next to him is saying?  Tongue

Can't hear, or won't listen?  I'd have to say that the latter concerns me more.

He hears just fine. That's just it, this has been a strategy of McCain's for a while now. It doesn't matter what Obama says, believes, has done, or says he will or won't do ... McCain is running against a different Obama, one that his camp has created as a super-villain to his awesome, Republican, squash-the-terrorist-insects self.

I think the Republicans have known from the outset that they were, in part, running against GW Bush this time, and that the amount of damage Bush has done to this country would be heavily in Obama's favor. They've stuck to the same ol' Republican schtick - "bomb the evil terrorists", and "we better go get them before they come steal your children!". Fear. Uncertainty. Doubt. Americans are sick of it, and it's not working.

« Last Edit: October 16, 2008, 07:46:48 PM by Jeff Jones » Logged
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« Reply #16 on: October 16, 2008, 07:49:59 PM »

Quote from: PeteRock on October 16, 2008, 07:37:15 PM

Can't hear, or won't listen?  I'd have to say that the latter concerns me more.

Yeah, was just about to edit something like that in.

In seriousness, we've already got an administration that won't listen to the evidence or unbiased experts.

Jeff, I'm also pretty sick of what this atmosphere of FUD they've generated is doing to human rights.  There's a whole lot of people at Guantanamo Bay being held there even though even the security staff know they did nothing and post no threat simply because they can't afford the media backlash of releasing said prisoners and thus *gasp!* admitting they were wrong.   While I'm sure we are also holding a lot of very nasty people, it's not just a waste to hold people we know aren't a problem, it's horrific.
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« Reply #17 on: October 16, 2008, 08:09:46 PM »

Quote from: Turtle on October 16, 2008, 07:49:59 PM

Quote from: PeteRock on October 16, 2008, 07:37:15 PM

Can't hear, or won't listen?  I'd have to say that the latter concerns me more.

Yeah, was just about to edit something like that in.

In seriousness, we've already got an administration that won't listen to the evidence or unbiased experts.

Jeff, I'm also pretty sick of what this atmosphere of FUD they've generated is doing to human rights.  There's a whole lot of people at Guantanamo Bay being held there even though even the security staff know they did nothing and post no threat simply because they can't afford the media backlash of releasing said prisoners and thus *gasp!* admitting they were wrong.   While I'm sure we are also holding a lot of very nasty people, it's not just a waste to hold people we know aren't a problem, it's horrific.

I live in Florida, and last week I received a flyer in the mail from Republican governor Charlie Crist. The flyer depicted masked Arab men holding AK47's, burning U.S. flags, etc. The message was along the lines of "we better go get them, before they come get us". And it urged me to "Keep America Safe -- Vote Republican".

Amazing that they think this scare tactic still works. We have far worse problems in our country now than terrorism, and I think we should be focusing on better priorities.
« Last Edit: October 16, 2008, 09:39:11 PM by Jeff Jones » Logged
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« Reply #18 on: October 16, 2008, 09:21:45 PM »

Quote from: Jeff Jones on October 16, 2008, 08:09:46 PM

Quote from: Turtle on October 16, 2008, 07:49:59 PM

Quote from: PeteRock on October 16, 2008, 07:37:15 PM

Can't hear, or won't listen?  I'd have to say that the latter concerns me more.

Yeah, was just about to edit something like that in.

In seriousness, we've already got an administration that won't listen to the evidence or unbiased experts.

Jeff, I'm also pretty sick of what this atmosphere of FUD they've generated is doing to human rights.  There's a whole lot of people at Guantanamo Bay being held there even though even the security staff know they did nothing and post no threat simply because they can't afford the media backlash of releasing said prisoners and thus *gasp!* admitting they were wrong.   While I'm sure we are also holding a lot of very nasty people, it's not just a waste to hold people we know aren't a problem, it's horrific.

I live in Flordia, and last week I received a flyer in the mail from Republican governor Charlie Crist. The flyer depicted masked Arab men holding AK47's, burning U.S. flags, etc. The message was along the lines of "we better go get them, before they come get us". And it urged me to "Keep America Safe -- Vote Republican".

Amazing that they think this scare tactic still works. We have far worse problems in our country now than terrorism, and I think we should be focusing on better priorities.

During the last two elections on my way in to vote there were "helpers" outside providing guidance and input to new voters who haven't experienced the process before.  They presented themselves as official ballot aides and handed out paperwork with instructions on how the voting process works.  I accepted one of their hand-outs out of politeness only to realize once I got inside that the "instruction sheet" directed you to vote Republican across the board as the "right" manner in which to vote.  All boxes were checked "Republican" and at the top there was also a note that said something along the lines of, "And an even better way to simplify the process is to select 'Vote Republican for All' at the top of your ballot to save yourself the time and trouble of having to choose each individual Republican running for office."   saywhat

But I haven't seen any of the scare tactic hand-outs, which is surprising given the border issues we have here in Arizona. 
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« Reply #19 on: October 17, 2008, 12:08:23 AM »

Going back to the debate, I am not surprised that Joe the Plumber played such a illustrative role in economy and tax policy explanations.  It shows McCain's willingness to listen to experts.  If the economy is going down the tubes, after all, tubes are right in a plumber's wheelhouse.

If you are going to buy a plumbing business with $250K of revenues:

1) It is a small business, because of the number of employees, and exempt from the requirement to provide a level of health care McCain was trying to pound.
2) It will be likely eligible for the job creation tax rebate for additional employees you may hire.
3) You better get cracking on being licensed as a Plumber first. those waiting lists can get damn long.
4) If it generates that much revenues and you are not making it its own taxable entity, like by incorporating it or LLC-ing it, perhaps you need to review business and licensing practices before you plan to buy a Plumbing business and lumping it into your personal income.  Because if it busts, your house and savings are likely gone with the wind if you don't.  It shouldn't be on your personal income taxes.  You're dumb, and asking the world to take your whole nest egg.
« Last Edit: October 17, 2008, 12:11:27 AM by the Nightbreeze » Logged

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« Reply #20 on: October 17, 2008, 02:03:49 AM »

might wanna makes sure your taxes are paid up too

http://elections.foxnews.com/2008/10/16/joe-plumber-owes-taxes/
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« Reply #21 on: October 17, 2008, 02:12:13 AM »

Quote from: the Nightbreeze on October 17, 2008, 12:08:23 AM


If you are going to buy a plumbing business with $250K of revenues:


$250k of profits, right? The candidates have been sloppy about that. $250k of revenue is peanuts. My business needs to gross that much just to pay me a living wage, never mind any employees. I'd need to bring in something over $2 million to generate a $250k profit.
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« Reply #22 on: October 17, 2008, 02:58:00 AM »

Quote from: Ironrod on October 17, 2008, 02:12:13 AM

Quote from: the Nightbreeze on October 17, 2008, 12:08:23 AM


If you are going to buy a plumbing business with $250K of revenues:


$250k of profits, right? The candidates have been sloppy about that. $250k of revenue is peanuts. My business needs to gross that much just to pay me a living wage, never mind any employees. I'd need to bring in something over $2 million to generate a $250k profit.

It wasn't clear, but the way it was presented is the business is "making $250K" and therefore "Joe would be making $250K". There may be no profits, it might be all profits, though coming from the trades before I went to university, I doubt it for a two-man operation.  But if Joe is considering carrying a $250K revenues that breaks even business, all the more reason to make the business its own taxable entity.

plumbers deal with open flames and running water and sewage.  If the liability insurance Joe decides to carry decides the damage he does to a homeowner's property was preventable because Joe's hippie daylaborer got baked at lunch and did not sweat the toilet tank feed right on the Second floor of a $400K house, joe is on the hook when the house molds or falls apart on the first floor antique dining room suite.  if the business is not its own entity, that's Joe's equipment, vehicles, savings, and house on the line.  Just because the liability insurance is paid up does not mean the insurance will pay out, and you can't half ass it in business

As for clarity, I'm sure McCain left the details in vaugeries on purpose, just because for the purposes of his assertions, he just needed Joe to be "making $250K a year" because of Obama's proposed income tax policy landmark.  If he's shufflinging $250K in plumbing materials around his spreadsheet, Joe is not "Making $250K", and not meeting the point of McCain's assertions anyways.
« Last Edit: October 17, 2008, 03:07:12 AM by the Nightbreeze » Logged

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« Reply #23 on: October 17, 2008, 04:55:36 AM »

Isn't Joe incorporated?  icon_confused
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« Reply #24 on: October 17, 2008, 11:51:11 AM »

How in the hell is this Joe guy, who isn't actually even a plumber, going to buy his boss' business?  I can just picture the year end meeting now. "Joe we have a few concerns about your work ethic..."  Joe: "Oh yeah, well screw you, I'm buying this place out and firing your ass!"
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« Reply #25 on: October 17, 2008, 02:41:20 PM »

Quote from: Ironrod on October 17, 2008, 04:55:36 AM

Isn't Joe incorporated?  icon_confused

Joe doesn't yet own anything to incorporate.  The business is hypothetically "making $250K".  Who knows what Joe really makes as a unlicensed pulmbing skilled craftsman.  Or what his wife makes.

But a non-incorporated Joe is my point.  If Joe was a separate tax entity than the business, Joe wouldn't be "making $250K" and "Need to worry about Obama's proposed tax policy changes increasing his taxes."

Either you Incorporate or LLC, and keep a risky $250K business off of your personal bottom line and keep your personal finances safeguarded...

Or You "make $250K and need to worry about higher taxes" because you can't put your head around business practices, tax policies, and being self-employed, and prove McCain's disingenuous, political, and hypothetical point.

Joe is not in trouble if Joe keeps his head out of his own ass.
« Last Edit: October 17, 2008, 05:26:48 PM by the Nightbreeze » Logged

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« Reply #26 on: October 17, 2008, 05:55:29 PM »

Joe has got much larger challenges than a small potential tax increase...which doesn't even exist if we're talking about $250k of corporate revenue, vs. his personal income. This whole Joe the Plumber thing is as silly as it sounds.
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« Reply #27 on: October 18, 2008, 01:59:14 AM »

Big day today, Obama got endorsements from 3 major newspapers.

The text is from CNN's political ticker, which changes, so I'll post the text here. (bold emphasis mine)

Quote
October 17, 2008
Obama wins backing from three major newspapers
Posted: 07:43 PM ET

(CNN) Barack Obama scored three high-profile newspaper endorsements Friday, including two from papers that have never endorsed a Democratic presidential candidate before.

The Los Angeles Times, the Chicago Tribune and The Washington Post all praised Obama's handling of the grueling presidential campaign and the historical nature of his candidacy as the first black to be the nominee for a major political party. It's the first time either the Times or the Tribune, Obama's historically conservative hometown newspaper, has endorsed a Democrat for the White House.

"The excitement of Obama's early campaign was amplified by that newness," wrote the Times, which hasn't endorsed a presidential candidate since 1972. "But as the presidential race draws to its conclusion, it is Obama's character and temperament that come to the fore. It is his steadiness. His maturity. These are qualities American leadership has sorely lacked for close to a decade."

"We have tremendous confidence in his intellectual rigor, his moral compass and his ability to make sound, thoughtful, careful decisions. He is ready," wrote the Tribune, originally led by founding members of the Republican Party. "The change that Obama talks about so much is not simply a change in this policy or that one. It is not fundamentally about lobbyists or Washington insiders. Obama envisions a change in the way we deal with one another in politics and government.

"Mr. Obama is a man of supple intelligence, with a nuanced grasp of complex issues and evident skill at conciliation and consensus-building," The post, which has a history of endorsing Democrats said.

With 18 days remaining before Election Day, more newspaper are expected to weigh in on the presidential race.

But it remains unclear if newspaper endorsements translates into a White House win. According to the newspaper trade magazine Editor and Publisher, John Kerry's losing 2004 presidential bid was endorsed by 211 newspapers while President Bush's successful campaign had the backing of 197. However, the president did win the backing of more key newspapers in the crucial presidential battlegrounds that propelled him to victory.

It is likely then that the endorsements of local papers in key states such as Missouri, Ohio, Virginia, Pennsylvania, and Colorado will have a greater impact than those of the Times, Post, and Tribune.
« Last Edit: October 18, 2008, 02:43:39 AM by Jeff Jones » Logged
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« Reply #28 on: October 18, 2008, 04:12:09 AM »

Quote from: Jeff Jones on October 16, 2008, 08:09:46 PM

Quote from: Turtle on October 16, 2008, 07:49:59 PM

Quote from: PeteRock on October 16, 2008, 07:37:15 PM

Can't hear, or won't listen?  I'd have to say that the latter concerns me more.

Yeah, was just about to edit something like that in.

In seriousness, we've already got an administration that won't listen to the evidence or unbiased experts.

Jeff, I'm also pretty sick of what this atmosphere of FUD they've generated is doing to human rights.  There's a whole lot of people at Guantanamo Bay being held there even though even the security staff know they did nothing and post no threat simply because they can't afford the media backlash of releasing said prisoners and thus *gasp!* admitting they were wrong.   While I'm sure we are also holding a lot of very nasty people, it's not just a waste to hold people we know aren't a problem, it's horrific.

I live in Florida, and last week I received a flyer in the mail from Republican governor Charlie Crist. The flyer depicted masked Arab men holding AK47's, burning U.S. flags, etc. The message was along the lines of "we better go get them, before they come get us". And it urged me to "Keep America Safe -- Vote Republican".

Amazing that they think this scare tactic still works. We have far worse problems in our country now than terrorism, and I think we should be focusing on better priorities.

Like marking it zero.
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