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Author Topic: [opinion] One night will decide Obama's fate  (Read 164 times)
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CeeKay
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« on: June 23, 2012, 08:32:17 AM »

http://www.cnn.com/2012/06/22/opinion/granderson-campaign-key/index.html

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President Barack Obama will not lose his re-election bid because of Eric Holder.

As sensational as the headlines surrounding the Fast and Furious controversy might be, recent history tells us Holder is only the topic of conversation right now.

Come July, we'll forget all about it much in the way the Keystone Pipeline is hardly mentioned.

Remember, it was just last week that all of the talk was about immigration and the Latino vote.

The week before that, it was same-sex marriages.

So Holder -- and the rest of those those sexy subplots -- are really just there to keep us entertained until the main event, the only event that matters leading to the election: the first debate. Everything before that will will likely fade away by November, especially for independents.

It's what happens when Obama and Mitt Romney finally square off on Wednesday, October 3, that will have the greatest influence on those who are undecided. The candidates will debate at the University of Denver, in the first of three planned presidential debates.

But you know the old saying: the first impression is the last impression. So if Obama stumbles in the first, he might as well spend the rest of the fall packing.

do you really think things will get so bad that one night will be that big of a deal?
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Ironrod
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« Reply #1 on: June 24, 2012, 12:40:18 AM »

It's a long time until October. Plenty of time for game-changing events to swing opinion either way.

80% of the electorate divides along party lines. How many of the other 20% still have no opinion? How many of those will make up their minds based on one debate? How many will even watch it?

Seems dubious to me.
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Ironrod
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« Reply #2 on: June 25, 2012, 12:46:35 AM »

The 20% number that I pulled out of my hat turns out to be a little low. A new AP poll says that 27% of likely voters are "persuadable".

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Overall, the poll found that among registered voters, 47 percent say they will vote for the president and 44 percent for Romney, a difference that is not statistically significant.

Those totals include soft support, though, meaning people who lean toward a candidate as well as those who said they could change their minds before November. The poll showed that these persuadable voters are equally apt to lean toward Obama, Romney, or neither, with about one-third of them in each camp.

The survey also showed that these voters are more likely than others to say they distrust both Romney and Obama on the major issues. They are far more likely to think the outcome of the election won't make a big difference on the economy, unemployment, the federal budget deficit or health care.

Party politics and wedge issues have dubious weight with this group. The poll found more independents fall into this category than partisans. The partisans who are persuadable are more likely to be in the ideological middle than either liberal Democrats or conservative Republicans. Seventeen percent of persuadables say they consider themselves supporters of the tea party.

The poll also found that demographically, they are more likely to be members of Generation X (between the ages of 30 and 49) than other registered voters. Many, 71 percent, have not graduated college. They are a bit more likely to have lower incomes than all registered voters. Fifty-two percent of persuadables have incomes below $50,000, compared with 44 percent of all voters.

On other characteristics gender, religious preference and race they're split similarly to other registered voters.

Of course this doesn't address the subject of the OP, but I thought it was an interesting breakdown. Though I don't see how any tea partiers can be persuaded to vote for Obama...more likely they need Romney to convince them they shouldn't just stay home.
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