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Question: Will this be the next big pandemic?
yes.  I'm prepping the bunker. - 4 (7.1%)
No.  just mass hysteria. - 36 (64.3%)
Maybe, too early to tell. - 16 (28.6%)
Total Voters: 56

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Author Topic: Swine Flu Outbreak- the next big pandemic?  (Read 3384 times)
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CeeKay
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« on: April 27, 2009, 12:07:54 AM »

The US has declared a state of emergency over this outbreak of Swine flu that originated in Mexico, killing a bunch of people and sickening even more.  this thing does seem to be moving rather quickly- the first I remember hearing about it was the 24th and now we've got cases in the US in a few different areas.  I'm figuring this won't be The Stand, but it is kind of chilling thinking this could be the global pandemic that some people have said is overdue.
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« Reply #1 on: April 27, 2009, 12:20:12 AM »

We are well overdue for a pandemic.  I'm not too worried about this particular virus though.  While it is resistant to a couple of antiviral medications, it is still susceptible to Tamiflu.  Also, while we have infections in the USA, we've had no deaths. This is probably due to several reasons but it gives me hope that if the infections rise the death rate will be low.  No need to stock up on ammo and bottled water quite yet.  icon_biggrin
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« Reply #2 on: April 27, 2009, 12:30:49 AM »

maybe....i have been following this story closely,i know they closed the schools and everything in mexico the other day i just read on the news that it has spread to New York,California,Texas,New Zealand and now the UK(UK and NZ spread by people coming back from Mexico ill,they are now in Quarantine )
EDIT:Ohio,Kansas and France,Canada,Isreal and Spain as well<<<suspected cases

the case in the UK was up in Scotland,the guy also has had close contact with about 20 people and they have all been rounded up

i wouldnt say its overdue,these kinds of Flu's break out every few years,its just that America never gets effected
Bird Flu(H5N1...this Swine Flu is H1N1) was massive in Asia and swept across Europe,and eventually some cases were discovered here(in the UK),and every few years a new case breaks out and people die again

Quote
    * 1975 LPAI H5N1 was detected in a wild mallard duck and a wild blue goose in Wisconsin.

    * 1981 and 1985 LPAI H5N1 was detected in ducks by the University of Minnesota conducting a sampling procedure in which sentinel ducks were monitored in cages placed in the wild for a short period of time.

    * 1983 LPAI H5N1 was detected in ring-billed gulls in Pennsylvania.

    * 1986 - LPAI H5N1 was detected in a wild mallard duck in Ohio.

    * 2005 - LPAI H5N1 was detected in ducks in Manitoba, Canada.

    * 2008 - LPAI H5N1 was detected in ducks in New Zealand.

    * 2009 - LPAI H5N1 was detected in commercial poultry in British Columbia. [20]


RED→  Countries with poultry or wild birds killed by H5N1.
DARK RED →  Countries with humans, poultry and wild birds killed by H5N1.





this Swine Flu though,looks like its a lot more deadly,killing i think its up to 86 106 people now in such a short time.....i also think of 'The Stand' every time one of these breaks out

« Last Edit: April 27, 2009, 05:17:02 AM by metallicorphan » Logged

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« Reply #3 on: April 27, 2009, 12:33:15 AM »

The good news about it turning into a Stand type situation is that the survivors wouldn't have to listen to Algore talk about Global Warming anymore.
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« Reply #4 on: April 27, 2009, 01:02:38 AM »

Quote from: Moliere on April 27, 2009, 12:33:15 AM

The good news about it turning into a Stand type situation is that the survivors wouldn't have to listen to Algore talk about Global Warming anymore.

unless he was one of the survivors  icon_wink
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« Reply #5 on: April 27, 2009, 04:07:33 AM »

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« Reply #6 on: April 27, 2009, 06:52:58 AM »

Oink?
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« Reply #7 on: April 27, 2009, 07:51:13 AM »

hysteria
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« Reply #8 on: April 27, 2009, 07:58:56 AM »

Quote from: Razgon on April 27, 2009, 06:52:58 AM

Ouink?
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« Reply #9 on: April 27, 2009, 12:14:59 PM »

+1 Hysteria.


I am in healthcare, and worked through SARS.  I'm glad I'm in an office now.. I couldn't survive another "outbreak" like that.
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« Reply #10 on: April 27, 2009, 12:46:41 PM »

Spain Confirmed
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« Reply #11 on: April 27, 2009, 02:31:48 PM »

I work at a major hospital in Maryland and the un-official word is that it's a non-issue for the moment. The news is probably creating more of a hysteria than it needs to be
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« Reply #12 on: April 27, 2009, 03:41:59 PM »

Hard to say. We are at the end of the traditional flu season (i.e. the school year), so it's not going to spread as rapidly as it would have done a few months ago.

I'd expect that it will fizzle out quickly, lie dormant throughout the summer, and then come raging back in the fall when all the little plague vectors go back to school. I further expect that millions of people will feel really crappy for a few days, and then recover. There's not much evidence that it's deadly in otherwise-healthy populations.

Maybe the early (over?)reaction will contain this virus before it can rage through the populace next fall/winter.
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« Reply #13 on: April 27, 2009, 04:04:57 PM »

Right now, with... twenty cases in the US, declaring a "national medical emergency" is about the silliest thing someone can do. It's the same as declaring a state of disaster for all of Kansas, because an F5 tornado took out three trailers in small town Kansas. All it's doing is putting everyone on edge about someone coughing on a subway (as seen when Sars hit Toronto), and will undoubtedly overload hospitals with people with non-serious flu-like cases.
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« Reply #14 on: April 27, 2009, 04:31:10 PM »

I'm curious how concerned we need to be about our upcoming trip to Rocky Point, Mexico from June 19th to the 22nd.  I'm hoping our trip is far enough away that pandemic concerns will have subsided by then and the outbreak contained.  We've been really looking forward to our trip as we managed to score a 3-bedroom penthouse at the Sonoran Sky right on the beach.  An f-ing penthouse, and for a steal.  We're in "wait and see" mode right now.   disgust
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« Reply #15 on: April 27, 2009, 06:28:27 PM »

i dunno about this now,this is a lot worse than all the Bird Flu we had in the last 10 years,and that would go on for months ....it has now been confirmed that its hit Britain as well

yesterday i posted my post up above^^^,i put 81 deaths..straight away i changed that to 86 deaths,then i put a strike through on that 86 and put 106 ...and now there are 149

and it seems the wrath of Khan has put Mexico on its list as Mexico City has just been hit by a powerful earthquake



Powerful earthquake hits Mexico City

Mexico Swine Flu deaths hit 149,and over 1600 cases

Swine Flu confirmed for Britain

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« Reply #16 on: April 27, 2009, 06:42:02 PM »

I went through the '76 Swine Flu scare (got sick as a friggin' dog from the vaccine...never been sicker, before or since). Certainly not panicking, although there are a few cases less than 10 miles from where I live, but we're keeping an eye out on the news.
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« Reply #17 on: April 27, 2009, 08:24:12 PM »

Quote from: metallicorphan on April 27, 2009, 06:28:27 PM

and it seems the wrath of Khan has put Mexico on its list as Mexico City has just been hit by a powerful earthquake

Wouldn't Montezuma's Revenge be more appropriate to that locale?
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« Reply #18 on: April 27, 2009, 08:34:34 PM »

Well, I'm from Mexico, but don't live in Mexico City, though two siblings of mine do live there, but they seem to be ok. One of them reports that Mexico City is pretty empty (for Mexico City standards, that is).

Me, I'm going to stay indoors for a week or so and see how it develops. God willing it won't be the end of us, not by a long shot.
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« Reply #19 on: April 27, 2009, 08:42:22 PM »

This is starting to remind me of the plot of various zombie movies and games.  paranoid

I am starting to get a little worried. Especially when the European Health officials say they're starting to warn people not to travel to the United States because of concerns about the swine flu (and presumbly they don't want it brought back in-country over there).

This CNN item sketches things a bit:
http://www.cnn.com/2009/HEALTH/04/27/swine.flu.qanda/index.html
Quote
AL Scientists are concerned whenever a new virus is able to jump from an animal to a person -- and then spread from person to person. When the flu spreads person to person, it can continue to mutate, making it harder to treat or fight off.

The World Health Organization has said the current outbreak has "pandemic potential," and has urged governments to take precautions to prevent its spread. If the virus continues to mutate, drug makers won't be able to come up with vaccines fast enough.
I guess it's time to dig up the hand sanitizer (which I tend to use more in the winter).
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« Reply #20 on: April 28, 2009, 06:59:38 AM »

I swear, this is beginning to look more and more like some end-of-the-world-disaster-movie...

Latest thing is a container filled with the flustrain has exploded during transport on a schwizz (SP?) train

Now, authorities *claims* that there is no harm done since it wasnt the deadly strain of the virus, or so they believe.

Anyone see the movie in their head? Next you see an empty street, and a newspaper saying "the dead walk"  icon_eek

Anyways, just helping out the media here, spreading the panic word

btw, here's the link http://jp.dk/udland/europa/article1676182.ece
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« Reply #21 on: April 28, 2009, 07:42:31 AM »

I finally bought The Andromeda Strain on DVD the other day.  I'm getting a strange urge to watch it now...
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« Reply #22 on: April 28, 2009, 07:55:11 AM »

heh, yeah, most fitting, huw :-D

Btw, its here...its 5 miles from where I live now. A woman who was recently in the states has been hospitalized now with what is almost certainly the flu.

14 other cases has been reported in the vicinity, but has been dismissed to far as the swineflu.

hey, I should blog about all this, for future generations to see what really happened in those fateful weeks :-D
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« Reply #23 on: April 28, 2009, 08:40:54 AM »

Quote from: Razgon on April 28, 2009, 07:55:11 AM

hey, I should blog about all this, for future generations to see what really happened in those fateful weeks :-D

Yeah, you'd make a fortune after everyone is dead! icon_biggrin
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« Reply #24 on: April 28, 2009, 02:27:51 PM »

Quote from: Razgon on April 28, 2009, 06:59:38 AM


you guys have beholders running around Europe?  eek Tongue
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« Reply #25 on: April 28, 2009, 05:31:42 PM »

From my semi-medical point of view:

1) As of right now, this is nothing to worry about (unless you're intending to travel to Mexico anytime soon).
2) Mexico, despite what some of the places closer to the border look like, is a very 3rd world country. Something to keep in mind.
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« Reply #26 on: April 29, 2009, 12:47:11 AM »

The reaction is nuts.  Since January, 13,000 people in the U.S. have died from complications of the regular flu.  So, should we close schools and wear masks and all that?  We don't think anything of it.  Throw a different name on the virus and people freak out.  Thousands of people in Mexico have probably already had the swine flu, recovered, and didn't think anything of it.

Does give CNN/Fox/MSNBC/ETC something to craft a new logo for, though.
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« Reply #27 on: April 29, 2009, 01:50:57 AM »

Quote from: jament on April 29, 2009, 12:47:11 AM

The reaction is nuts.  Since January, 13,000 people in the U.S. have died from complications of the regular flu.  So, should we close schools and wear masks and all that?  We don't think anything of it.  Throw a different name on the virus and people freak out.  Thousands of people in Mexico have probably already had the swine flu, recovered, and didn't think anything of it.

Does give CNN/Fox/MSNBC/ETC something to craft a new logo for, though.

Did CDC and WHO put on an alert when 13,000 people in the US died from regular flu? Are you saying that CDC and WHO = CNN/Fox/MSNBC?

http://edition.cnn.com/2009/HEALTH/04/28/regular.flu/index.html?iref=mpstoryview

Quote
About 9 out of 10 of those deaths are among people older than 65, Currie said. Most times, they already have health problems that the flu makes worse, he said.

http://edition.cnn.com/2009/HEALTH/04/28/swine.flu.mexico/index.html?iref=mpstoryview

Quote
"It's a fairly novel strain," he said, "and the deaths could be from healthy people who have a healthy, robust immune system that overreacts."


Quote
McKenna said it's possible "there is much more flu in Mexico than we know because it hasn't been counted. That would mean that there are mild cases there as well, but that you have to get to a certain number of cases before, statistically, you start to see the very serious ones, and the U.S. hasn't had that many cases yet."

Thousands of people had it, recovered and didn't think anything of it is not a good thing. That just mean those thousands of people had opportunities to infect millions of others.
« Last Edit: April 29, 2009, 02:01:25 AM by Victoria Raverna » Logged
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« Reply #28 on: April 29, 2009, 11:42:32 AM »

First US fatality due to the swine flu, a two year old  icon_cry

thats really sad, no matter how severe the flu is, pandemic or not, its a disase that should be taken seriously.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/30471035/
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« Reply #29 on: April 29, 2009, 01:33:24 PM »

Quote from: Razgon on April 29, 2009, 11:42:32 AM

First US fatality due to the swine flu, a two year old  icon_cry

thats really sad, no matter how severe the flu is, pandemic or not, its a disase that should be taken seriously.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/30471035/

Quote
Houston spokesman Frank Michel told the Houston Chronicle the child came from Brownsville, in south Texas. Barton said the toddler came from Mexico.

Not exactly a US fatality if the kid wasn't from here in the first place.
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« Reply #30 on: April 29, 2009, 01:53:44 PM »

I have my squash bat at the ready.
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« Reply #31 on: April 29, 2009, 03:32:30 PM »

Quote from: Destructor on April 29, 2009, 01:33:24 PM

Quote from: Razgon on April 29, 2009, 11:42:32 AM

First US fatality due to the swine flu, a two year old  icon_cry

thats really sad, no matter how severe the flu is, pandemic or not, its a disase that should be taken seriously.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/30471035/

Quote
Houston spokesman Frank Michel told the Houston Chronicle the child came from Brownsville, in south Texas. Barton said the toddler came from Mexico.

Not exactly a US fatality if the kid wasn't from here in the first place.

I figured up to this point that the deaths reported were in terms of where they occured. So a death in Mexico is because someone, regardless of nationality, died in Mexico. Is this not the case?
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« Reply #32 on: April 29, 2009, 04:55:58 PM »

Quote from: SensuousLettuce on April 29, 2009, 01:53:44 PM

I have my squash bat at the ready.

No no no...  By the time the zombies get in close enough to use that, its too late.  You need to keep as much distance between you and them as possible. 
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« Reply #33 on: April 29, 2009, 05:24:49 PM »

mini World update:



UK
here in Britain they had a press conference on TV(i know,'cos i watched it),they said that Britain had been stock piling Anti Flu drugs(they obviously knew something we didnt)...and the actual alert level is level 4 here,6 being a pandemic

on Tuesday every household are getting leaflets(what do you call them....flyers?  BTTF) posted through their letterbox on how to deal with Swine Flu or how to identify Swine Flu

Masks aren't said to be needed by the public yet,but our hospital staff will be wearing them

In Egypt:
The Egyptian government says it has begun slaughtering of the country's 300,000 pigs as a precautionary measure, despite repeatedly stating it has no cases of swine flu.


It has spread to Asia and the Middle East as world health officials admitted the virus could not be contained.

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« Reply #34 on: April 29, 2009, 05:41:58 PM »

Ruh roh....  I seem to be developing the sniffles. If I don't make it tell Razgons wife I love her....
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« Reply #35 on: April 29, 2009, 06:18:53 PM »

It's the flu, for Pete's sake...WTF are people getting so freaked out by it???  Color me confused...
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« Reply #36 on: April 29, 2009, 06:32:49 PM »

The regular flu kills 36,000 people a year according to the CDC.  That is the common flu which doesn't really kill adults even if left untreated.  This new strain kills adults so what if it becomes as common as the common flu?  Millions?  And not just the elderly or the really young but normal adults?  I think that is why people are worried. 
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« Reply #37 on: April 29, 2009, 06:48:05 PM »

Quote from: CeeKay on April 29, 2009, 05:41:58 PM

Ruh roh....  I seem to be developing the sniffles. If I don't make it tell Razgons wife I love her....


 icon_evil

So, the sweatsoaked blankets from my sick petpig I planted in your travelling bags finally worked, eh?
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« Reply #38 on: April 29, 2009, 06:59:21 PM »



Quote
We're all gonna die.

This is way overblown, as others have said. I am following the story (it's hard not to thanks to the media) but far from the point where I feel the need to get spooked by this. It's not a flu-variant that scares me, it's some man made biological concoction getting out that gives me the heeby-jeebies.
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« Reply #39 on: April 29, 2009, 07:04:05 PM »

Uh...

http://www.smh.com.au/world/only-7-swine-flu-deaths-not-152-says-who-20090429-aml1.html

Quote
Only 7 swine flu deaths, not 152, says WHO

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