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Author Topic: What skills will be obsolete in 50 years?  (Read 900 times)
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farley2k
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« on: February 24, 2015, 05:48:38 PM »

Saw this topic over at io9 and thought it was neat.

What do you think will be obsolete in 50 years?

For me it is cursive.  I am a working professional and I can't remember the last time I needed to write something over a paragraph in length in cursive.  I write quick notes to myself or others but nothing longer than a sentence.  

I also think that driving will be gone soon.  Heck when I was growing up my mom had me learn to drive a stick shift because she thought it was important.  Now something like 98% of cars sold are automatic.  In 50 more years they will all be self driving.

What is on your list?
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« Reply #1 on: February 24, 2015, 06:17:32 PM »

I have had a car with a manual transmission since I first started driving.  I finally had to ditch the stick shift due to some foot/ankle issues when I bought my new (used) car about a month ago.  Not having to shift just feels...weird.  Not sure I like it.
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« Reply #2 on: February 24, 2015, 09:33:07 PM »

Physical media, at least from a consumer standpoint. Everything entertainment-wise will be delivered from the cloud on demand.

I don't think physical books will be obsolete, but I think traditional community libraries might be.
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« Reply #3 on: February 24, 2015, 09:45:44 PM »

I don't think people will be typing much in another 20 years, let alone 50, with the way voice recognition has evolved.
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« Reply #4 on: February 24, 2015, 09:47:32 PM »

I'm wondering about the fate of automobiles in that time.   Self-driving cars seem to be a big push.   I'd love to reclaim that time for literally anything other than silently staring out the window concentrating on not dying.  

I'm hoping that in 50 years we'll also see the death of commercial power.  While I'm not sure we'll get everyone off the grid themselves, it'd be nice to see all commercial power replaced by renewables.  

The biggest thing I see dying off is small-form manufacturing.   "Oh shit, my controller cracked.  I guess I'll print another one" will be the norm.  maybe not for proprietary things like controllers, but that doesn't mean people won't figure out how to make their own.  
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« Reply #5 on: February 24, 2015, 10:12:24 PM »

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« Reply #6 on: February 24, 2015, 10:57:32 PM »

Quote from: DOSHIGH on February 24, 2015, 09:45:44 PM

I don't think people will be typing much in another 20 years, let alone 50, with the way voice recognition has evolved.

You can't exactly talk to your computer quietly in most office environments, so I doubt voice recognition would replace it there.

Not to mention talking is going to be much slower and less accurate than typing for anything like coding that requires tons of specific syntax and non-English words.

But, having said that, 50 years is a long time for something to completely change the game.
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« Reply #7 on: February 24, 2015, 11:32:44 PM »

Working a necessity for survival. Wage slavery will no longer be tenable when robots are doing virtually all manual labor and AIs can do much of what we consider skilled labor. I don't know what will replace it, but the way economies are organized will have to change radically as workforce participation keeps dropping in fits and starts. People will work at creative endeavors if they choose to, for self-fulfillment and to enrich themselves beyond a basic income.

I doubt that nation-states will be the dominant political entities. They'll still exist as convenient geographical designations, and they'll continue to be the source of military power, but culture will be increasingly global and nations will be subordinate to transnational corporations and political entities -- not a centralized "world government" though.

Both of these shifts are already under way and I only see them intensifying over the next 50 years.

 
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« Reply #8 on: February 25, 2015, 03:01:18 PM »

Quote from: DOSHIGH on February 24, 2015, 09:45:44 PM

I don't think people will be typing much in another 20 years, let alone 50, with the way voice recognition has evolved.

There's an irony in this coming from DOSHIGH. slywink
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« Reply #9 on: February 25, 2015, 03:09:28 PM »

The world will be so different in 50 years that I'd say the only skills that will be relevant are skills with first aid, outdoorsmanship, and repair.  Maybe general speech and bartering skills.  Also gambling, science, traps, stealing, lockpicking, sneaking, doctoring, throwing, melee weapons, unarmed combat, guns of all sizes, and energy weapons.
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« Reply #10 on: February 25, 2015, 03:58:01 PM »

There will be some sort of fallout with those skills, Pug.
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« Reply #11 on: February 25, 2015, 11:48:15 PM »

Humans will still have value for creative skills and imagination. I don't foresee AI developing those anytime soon. They will displace us at analytical and logical thinking.
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« Reply #12 on: February 26, 2015, 12:44:38 AM »

Luckily, some of us coppertops will be needed to program said devices.
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« Reply #13 on: February 26, 2015, 02:46:40 AM »

A smaller industry of humans will still find work in high-level (OS-type) programming. It's easy to foresee learning AIs writing their own code for routine applications, similar to the way our brains program themselves by forming memories and associations. This will be evident in the next 5-10 years, never mind 50 years. By then we will be watched over by machines of loving grace. Or Skynet. Pretty sure it will be one or the other.
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« Reply #14 on: February 26, 2015, 04:51:02 AM »

When they take the gloves off of the Turing test that they hold every year, I'll be worried. I might not be able to beat Watson at Jeopardy, but I'm pretty sure I'm a better dinner companion at least 60% of the time.
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« Reply #15 on: February 26, 2015, 09:40:02 PM »

I'm not confident I'll live to be 99, so it's possibly moot to me.  smirk

Typing seems as useful now as it presumably was in the 19th century. While I suspect that will remain so, regardless of Siri and the like, it still seems like a skill ripe for being pushed aside by something else.

I do think in terms of driving, it's more likely going to be more standard to have a lot of optional automation, and a lot of safety-features designed to remove driver error (i.e., not breaking fast enough to avoid some numbnut abruptly pulling in front of you w/o warning etc.). Most people enjoy driving, and I just can't see that market entirely reduced to the level of an automated airport tram. I can see it reaching the point where even the cheapest car has standard automation options and safety-features designed to assist you when crisis situations come up.

I've probably experienced more near-miss accidents here in Va. the last couple years due to - imho - deranged driving maneuvers in front of me. I've emerged unscathed but have wondered how a car with more of these newer safety-automation features would've reacted/helped me.

Some examples might be:

Tesla's Autopilot (albeit in a crazy expensive electric car):
http://www.theverge.com/2014/10/17/6982289/tesla-autopilot-is-a-non-revolution-for-self-driving-cars
http://www.teslamotors.com/models

Subaru's Eye-Sight:
http://www.subaru.com/engineering/eyesight.html

Volvo's IntelliSafe:
http://www.volvocars.com/us/about/our-innovations/intellisafe

To me, anything electronic is subject to possible failure, malfunction, maybe weather-related dysfunction so if you don't give a manual drive option it doesn't seem like a good idea.

Maybe in a hundred years, things will be different. But then I'm SURE I'll be dead, and I just won't care how people get around then.  icon_smile
« Last Edit: February 26, 2015, 09:45:48 PM by Blackjack » Logged

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« Reply #16 on: February 27, 2015, 01:32:11 AM »

I think people are only afraid of self-driving cars because we've always been in control and can't imagine a state where we are not. People were also terrified of elevators when they were first invented (for many of the same reasons), and yet now we go up and down them every day at heights that would kill us instantly if they failed.

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« Reply #17 on: February 27, 2015, 04:14:08 AM »

Quote from: Isgrimnur on February 26, 2015, 04:51:02 AM

When they take the gloves off of the Turing test that they hold every year, I'll be worried. I might not be able to beat Watson at Jeopardy, but I'm pretty sure I'm a better dinner companion at least 60% of the time.

Neuromorphic chips came as news to me.

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« Reply #18 on: February 27, 2015, 04:16:42 AM »

Quote from: YellowKing on February 27, 2015, 01:32:11 AM

I think people are only afraid of self-driving cars because we've always been in control and can't imagine a state where we are not. People were also terrified of elevators when they were first invented (for many of the same reasons), and yet now we go up and down them every day at heights that would kill us instantly if they failed.

I worked in a building that still employed elevator operators in the 1990s.
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« Reply #19 on: February 27, 2015, 01:23:22 PM »

Quote from: farley2k on February 24, 2015, 05:48:38 PM

For me it is cursive.  I am a working professional and I can't remember the last time I needed to write something over a paragraph in length in cursive.  I write quick notes to myself or others but nothing longer than a sentence.  

Cursive is dead as far as I'm concerned. It's not even taught in schools anymore (or so my boss at work as said, as his three kids have gone through school). I just wish doctors would realize this and stop doing it, mainly as they have piss poor at best handwriting skills, and cursive only makes it worse to read! I'm trying to avoid killing my patients thank you very much!
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« Reply #20 on: March 15, 2015, 01:43:47 PM »

Um.......Russian diplomacy?
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« Reply #21 on: March 17, 2015, 05:32:16 PM »

Posting on Internet message boards?  smirk

Probably that's already obsolete, which is why I continue to embrace it.  retard
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« Reply #22 on: March 17, 2015, 06:56:56 PM »

It's probably on its way out now but being able to read a map and compass (aka orienteering). I never understood the appeal to Geocaching...how hard is it to find something when you're given the coordinates and you can just walk right to the cache being directed by your GPS.
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« Reply #23 on: March 18, 2015, 03:18:58 AM »

I just spent 15 minutes with car salespeople trying to convince me that a CVT is the way to go with my new Forester.

Saying that a six-speed manual made driving more fun did not compute with them.
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« Reply #24 on: March 18, 2015, 01:40:52 PM »

Quote from: Ironrod on February 24, 2015, 11:32:44 PM

Working a necessity for survival. Wage slavery will no longer be tenable when robots are doing virtually all manual labor and AIs can do much of what we consider skilled labor. I don't know what will replace it, but the way economies are organized will have to change radically as workforce participation keeps dropping in fits and starts. People will work at creative endeavors if they choose to, for self-fulfillment and to enrich themselves beyond a basic income.

That is not happening in 50 years.  Automating jobs is expensive and difficult and labor is quite cheap in many areas of the world.
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« Reply #25 on: March 23, 2015, 10:33:34 PM »

Quote from: stessier on March 18, 2015, 01:40:52 PM

Quote from: Ironrod on February 24, 2015, 11:32:44 PM

Working a necessity for survival. Wage slavery will no longer be tenable when robots are doing virtually all manual labor and AIs can do much of what we consider skilled labor. I don't know what will replace it, but the way economies are organized will have to change radically as workforce participation keeps dropping in fits and starts. People will work at creative endeavors if they choose to, for self-fulfillment and to enrich themselves beyond a basic income.

That is not happening in 50 years.  Automating jobs is expensive and difficult and labor is quite cheap in many areas of the world.

This fellow disagrees with you:

Quote
University of Oxford Associate Professor in machine learning Michael Osborne has examined the characteristics of 702 occupations in the US, predicting 47 per cent will be overtaken by computers in the next decade or two.

Those most at-risk jobs are in accommodation and food services (87 per cent of workers at high risk of being replaced), transportation and warehousing (75 per cent) and real estate (67 per cent).

...yes we may see new forms of work generated but it's not  clear that the kind of people who are put out of work, which I said ought to be those at the low-skilled end of the spectrum, are necessarily going to be those that move into those new forms of work."

Note that his predicted timeframe is 20 years, not 50.
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« Reply #26 on: March 23, 2015, 11:05:26 PM »

There will probably be a very select few people who know how to develop film in 50 years.
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« Reply #27 on: March 24, 2015, 04:37:49 PM »

Quote from: Ironrod on March 23, 2015, 10:33:34 PM

Quote from: stessier on March 18, 2015, 01:40:52 PM

Quote from: Ironrod on February 24, 2015, 11:32:44 PM

Working a necessity for survival. Wage slavery will no longer be tenable when robots are doing virtually all manual labor and AIs can do much of what we consider skilled labor. I don't know what will replace it, but the way economies are organized will have to change radically as workforce participation keeps dropping in fits and starts. People will work at creative endeavors if they choose to, for self-fulfillment and to enrich themselves beyond a basic income.

That is not happening in 50 years.  Automating jobs is expensive and difficult and labor is quite cheap in many areas of the world.

This fellow disagrees with you:

Quote
University of Oxford Associate Professor in machine learning Michael Osborne has examined the characteristics of 702 occupations in the US, predicting 47 per cent will be overtaken by computers in the next decade or two.

Those most at-risk jobs are in accommodation and food services (87 per cent of workers at high risk of being replaced), transportation and warehousing (75 per cent) and real estate (67 per cent).

...yes we may see new forms of work generated but it's not  clear that the kind of people who are put out of work, which I said ought to be those at the low-skilled end of the spectrum, are necessarily going to be those that move into those new forms of work."

Note that his predicted timeframe is 20 years, not 50.

That guy doesn't work in a business with those functions or for someone who reports to shareholders.  I'm sure the view from his ivory tower is quite rosy.  smile

I've worked with an automated portion of the warehouse - it was FANTASTIC...when it worked (infrequent).  When it didn't (frequent), forklifts and their drivers were quite busy.  Real estate will almost certainly disappear, but while food ordering might, food preparation is far less likely.  Then there are all the factories - stuff that creating reliable robots for is too hard or costly.  20 years is a pipe dream.

On the other hand, maybe he's right.  I mean, you were able to place your order for a flying car this week, right?
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« Reply #28 on: March 24, 2015, 06:07:02 PM »

Quote from: stessier on March 24, 2015, 04:37:49 PM

That guy doesn't work in a business with those functions or for someone who reports to shareholders.  I'm sure the view from his ivory tower is quite rosy.  smile

I've worked with an automated portion of the warehouse - it was FANTASTIC...when it worked (infrequent).  When it didn't (frequent), forklifts and their drivers were quite busy.  Real estate will almost certainly disappear, but while food ordering might, food preparation is far less likely.  Then there are all the factories - stuff that creating reliable robots for is too hard or costly.  20 years is a pipe dream.

On the other hand, maybe he's right.  I mean, you were able to place your order for a flying car this week, right?

Amazon is an example of a business that has utilized automation to make their warehouses much more efficient, essentially bringing the product to the packagers.

LEGO also has a nearly fully automated facilities for manufacturing and packaging of millions of bricks.  They only have a handful of people watching the whole place and don't even let the bricks be "contaminated" by human handling.

UPS and FedEx also have large mostly automated sorting facilities.

It's certainly possible even right now for companies that have the money and foresight, I imagine it will only become more adopted with time.  I don't think 20 (or 50) years is out of the question at all for more widespread impact.
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