NFL 2011 Offseason Discussion -2012 Draft Edition

[gellar]

I thought Smith was incredibly consistent this year.  A few flashes of brilliance, but you pretty much expect 200 yards, 2 tds, and no INTs for him.  I'll take that over any QB that can be had any day.  Let Harbaugh coach him up some more and we'll get maybe a 20% improvement at best?  That's a pretty decent QB in this offense.

Realistically, the biggest offseason gain the Niners will pick up is the return of Josh Morgan, who's probably the teams best WR.  The issue is, even historically at Stanford, Harbaugh has gotten relatively poor production from his WRs.  He's good with TEs and QBs, but his WRs are going to be serviceable at best.  I don't think you can expect a much better offense next year... just marginally better.  Maybe they manage to convince Colston or Bowe to come over, but I think that's a pipe dream.

The team is what it is.  It's going to be difficult to make a huge leap in performance.  I'm OK with that.  It's a good team that's built to win more often than not.  They didn't yesterday, but they came damn close.  I'll take it.

My actual real concern in the offseason is getting a replacement for Gore.  He's old by RB standards and it's time to start grooming his eventual replacement.  I like Hunter a lot, but he's not big enough to be a primary back.

[rickfc]

Blame it on Williams, blame it on the refs, blame it on whatever you want but first look at the statistical differences before you single out anyone.   The Giants out played the Niners, overall statistically.

1st downs,  20 to 15.   ( 4 of the Niners 1st downs were due to penalty )
3rd down conversions  7/21  to 1/13.   
Total yards was close but NY still had the edge at 352 to 328. 
Red zone conversions 2/4  to 0/1. 
turnovers 0 to 2
time of possession 39:36 to 28:18

You have to give the Giants their props, theyve gone into Green Bay and San Francisco, playing against the top 2 seeded NFC teams and come away with wins.

The Giants won the game deservedly, but I think it was pretty clear the 49ers offense and special teams let down the defense, who may have had their game of the year.  10 points off special teams turnovers and the 49er offense, as you pointed out, just could not convert on 3rd down.

This sounds almost exactly like the Texans game last week against the Ravens.

[Gratch]

The Niners made it to the conference championship game this year.   With a few exceptions their D carried them most of the season.  A few tweaks on offense and they will be a force to be reckoned with next year.  Alex Smith is too inconsistent to carry this offense but replacing him would be difficult.  The Niners are primed right now and dont want to take the time to train a qb draft pick, so they either have to find a diamond in the rough qb through trade or free agency or try to improve the weapons Smith has to work with.  Should be an interesting off season for them.

Alex's problem isn't that he's inconsistent (he was remarkably consistent this year), but rather that he doesn't put up gaudy numbers.  I find it amusing that a guy who lead a team that is primarily focused on defense and a run-heavy attack to 14 wins - with a top 10 QB rating, and the fewest INT's in the entire league - is viewed as an liability because he doesn't throw for 300 yards.

Alex is what he is...a game managing, mid-tier QB.  He is neither the second coming of Joe Montana nor is he Aaron Rodgers, and Niners fans will always howl for his head because of it.  I hope Naednek gets his wish and Alex moves on so they can howl at someone else.

[gellar]

The Niners made it to the conference championship game this year.   With a few exceptions their D carried them most of the season.  A few tweaks on offense and they will be a force to be reckoned with next year.  Alex Smith is too inconsistent to carry this offense but replacing him would be difficult.  The Niners are primed right now and dont want to take the time to train a qb draft pick, so they either have to find a diamond in the rough qb through trade or free agency or try to improve the weapons Smith has to work with.  Should be an interesting off season for them.

Alex's problem isn't that he's inconsistent (he was remarkably consistent this year), but rather that he doesn't put up gaudy numbers.  I find it amusing that a guy who lead a team that is primarily focused on defense and a run-heavy attack to 14 wins - with a top 10 QB rating, and the fewest INT's in the entire league - is viewed as an liability because he doesn't throw for 300 yards.

Alex is what he is...a game managing, mid-tier QB.  He is neither the second coming of Joe Montana nor is he Aaron Rodgers, and Niners fans will always howl for his head because of it.  I hope Naednek gets his wish and Alex moves on so they can howl at someone else.

Again, not all Niner fans are naednek. 

My group of fans is almost universal in support of Alex.  He's done exactly what he's been asked to do this year and did it considerably well. About the only QB that *might* be realistically available in the offseason that would be an upgrade is Peyton Manning.  If he's healthy and they're moving him, you have to consider that from a 49ers perspective.  Other than that, it's Alex.  I actually expect he'll get a three or four year contract.  If he doesn't and we have to roll with Kaepernick or someone else at that spot, we be fucked for 2012.

[rshetts2]

The Niners made it to the conference championship game this year.   With a few exceptions their D carried them most of the season.  A few tweaks on offense and they will be a force to be reckoned with next year.  Alex Smith is too inconsistent to carry this offense but replacing him would be difficult.  The Niners are primed right now and dont want to take the time to train a qb draft pick, so they either have to find a diamond in the rough qb through trade or free agency or try to improve the weapons Smith has to work with.  Should be an interesting off season for them.

Alex's problem isn't that he's inconsistent (he was remarkably consistent this year), but rather that he doesn't put up gaudy numbers.  I find it amusing that a guy who lead a team that is primarily focused on defense and a run-heavy attack to 14 wins - with a top 10 QB rating, and the fewest INT's in the entire league - is viewed as an liability because he doesn't throw for 300 yards.

Alex is what he is...a game managing, mid-tier QB.  He is neither the second coming of Joe Montana nor is he Aaron Rodgers, and Niners fans will always howl for his head because of it.  I hope Naednek gets his wish and Alex moves on so they can howl at someone else.

A QB with a career rating of 76.4  is not what I would consider consistent.  He was carried by the 8th best rushing offense in the NFL while the passing game was ranked 29th.  Yes, they won games but it was more of result of the rushing game and a very strong defense that did it, not the play of Alex Smith.  Credit Harbaugh for designing an offense that kept Smith from being exposed and give credit to Smith for being able to play within that system but IMHO Smith still has a lot to prove before Ill consider him a solid franchise QB.  Going 12 of 26 in a championship game isnt going to cut it.   That being said, I do think youre correct.  If he gets his receiver corp in shape and continues to work within Harbaughs system, he has a chance to step up to that next level.  If he does, then the Niners will be a very scary team. 

Oh one thing I will point out, a high QB rating doesnt assure fan support, in any way shape or form.  Just ask Tony Romo with his 4th best rating of 102.5 ( compared to Smiths 90.7 )  Fans can be fickle little bitches!   

[gellar]

The Niners made it to the conference championship game this year.   With a few exceptions their D carried them most of the season.  A few tweaks on offense and they will be a force to be reckoned with next year.  Alex Smith is too inconsistent to carry this offense but replacing him would be difficult.  The Niners are primed right now and dont want to take the time to train a qb draft pick, so they either have to find a diamond in the rough qb through trade or free agency or try to improve the weapons Smith has to work with.  Should be an interesting off season for them.

Alex's problem isn't that he's inconsistent (he was remarkably consistent this year), but rather that he doesn't put up gaudy numbers.  I find it amusing that a guy who lead a team that is primarily focused on defense and a run-heavy attack to 14 wins - with a top 10 QB rating, and the fewest INT's in the entire league - is viewed as an liability because he doesn't throw for 300 yards.

Alex is what he is...a game managing, mid-tier QB.  He is neither the second coming of Joe Montana nor is he Aaron Rodgers, and Niners fans will always howl for his head because of it.  I hope Naednek gets his wish and Alex moves on so they can howl at someone else.

A QB with a career rating of 76.4  is not what I would consider consistent.  He was carried by the 8th best rushing offense in the NFL while the passing game was ranked 29th.  Yes, they won games but it was more of result of the rushing game and a very strong defense that did it, not the play of Alex Smith.  Credit Harbaugh for designing an offense that kept Smith from being exposed and give credit to Smith for being able to play within that system but IMHO Smith still has a lot to prove before Ill consider him a solid franchise QB.  Going 12 of 26 in a championship game isnt going to cut it.   That being said, I do think youre correct.  If he gets his receiver corp in shape and continues to work within Harbaughs system, he has a chance to step up to that next level.  If he does, then the Niners will be a very scary team. 

Oh one thing I will point out, a high QB rating doesnt assure fan support, in any way shape or form.  Just ask Tony Romo with his 4th best rating of 102.5 ( compared to Smiths 90.7 )  Fans can be fickle little bitches!   

Your argument is why Smith is not a superstar QB (which is something I don't think anyone will argue).  But he's been consistent this season.  Consistently above average. 

The NFC Championship game on a wet field against a pretty good defense is the only time he dipped below 50% completion on the year (a low bar) and still managed a 97.6 rating (if that's what we're using to judge QBs).

No one is going to put him in the upper echelon, but to call him inconsistent is either a gross misunderstanding of the word 'consistent'.

No QB short of Brees, Manning(s), Rodgers, or Drew StaffordIfHesHealthy is going to put up gaudy numbers in the SF system as constructed.  Harbaugh's gameplan is to minimize the risk on offense because he knows his defense and special teams is so retardedly good.  When you know your punter is going to make the opposing team start at the 30 at the worst case and they gotta go 70+ yards against your D... you don't let your QB throw into areas that could cause INTs or sacks->fumbles.  You only need 20 pts max to win the game if you play within your system.

[Gratch]

Credit Harbaugh for designing an offense that kept Smith from being exposed and give credit to Smith for being able to play within that system but IMHO Smith still has a lot to prove before Ill consider him a solid franchise QB. 

And therein lies the problem...I really don't think Smith is, or ever will be, a "solid franchise QB".  The Niners drafted him 1st overall when he realistically had no business being there, then expected him to be the next Steve Young.  He simply doesn't have the talent to be that guy.  He proved this year that he can be decent given the right system, but he's never going to be a guy that you will lean on to win you games or build your franchise around.  Seems like that's what the Niners are looking for.

[naednek]

What Gellar said, except the insult towards me   Alex has been playing consistently this year, completing short passes, playing 1 or two good qtrs of football, and doing enough to get by.  Nobody expects him to be a Tom Brady/Brees type of player,  he's just not that gifted.  But he does have a limit on what he can do and we saw that yesterday.

Gratch can continue to misjudge my views on Smith, it's never been my view that Alex sucks because he's not Drew Brees, Brady or the Manning brothers.  He's definetely improved this season from the last 6, mainly due to coaching.  But he's certainly not the guy to get the job done and will have to rely on what got them this far, defense and special teams.  Maybe now that we have a good coaching situation, maybe some key WR's come to the niners during FA, maybe that will help get past that bubble. 

Maybe during the offseason they can work on the redzone and 3rd down plays.  It's amazing how this has been a problem all year long and nothing to show for improvement. 

So some positive things from Alex this season, are
Very low turn over rate, mainly due to only having to play a short field, and they don't throw as much
He's now finally reading the field looking for multiple receivers
A better pocket presence
the ability to scramble when plays go wrong
better decision making on when to get rid of the ball and not take a sack or cause a turnover
a great work ethic, and while I may not like him as an athlete, he is a good person (based on perception)
he can take criticism, and was finally able to look confident this year.

[gellar]

Gratch can continue to misjudge my views on Smith, it's never been my view that Alex sucks because he's not Drew Brees, Brady or the Manning brothers.  He's definetely improved this season from the last 6, mainly due to coaching.  But he's certainly not the guy to get the job done and will have to rely on what got them this far, defense and special teams.  Maybe now that we have a good coaching situation, maybe some key WR's come to the niners during FA, maybe that will help get past that bubble. 

Pretty sure he's actually got you pegged:

Alex is what he is...a game managing, mid-tier QB.  He is neither the second coming of Joe Montana nor is he Aaron Rodgers, and Niners fans will always howl for his head because of it.  I hope Naednek gets his wish and Alex moves on so they can howl at someone else.

What is the it you want your QB to be?  Do you demand one in the mold of Montana or Young?  Cause unless the Niners tank the next year and get lucky with the draft pick, you aren't getting that.  Smith is better than every option available.

Let's break down other ways you are wrong.

Top five things to do next year.
1: Get a new QB
2: Convert on 3rd Down
3: Stop the Pass
4: Upgrade the WR position
5: Teach football 101. (tuck the ball in, and don't touch a stray punt)

I'll have my review of the season in the offseason thread tomorrow.  I'm too pissed to think objectively.

1) Covered above.  Why dont you go ahead and give your brilliant plan on getting a new QB, since you bring this up every offseason?
2) You mean 1 for 13 ain't going to cut it?  No shit.
3) The Niners actually held Eli to an AYA of 5.45, by far his lowest of the year.  Even lower than the last time they played.  That's excellent pass defense, especially considering they lost Brown early in the third.  Statistically, the 49ers defense played considerably better than they did the first time they played the Giants.  The offense and special teams let them down.
4) Don't see it happening and not sure if a big name WR would really help the team because of the schemes Harbaugh puts together.  Desean Jackson would actually be great but there's little to no chance Harbaugh wants any piece of that.  Dwayne Bowe?  Pipedream.  Ditto for Colston.
5) The fuck?  You're saying probably the best coached team in the league needs to learn football 101?  A backup punt returner had two bad plays on a wet day at the Stick.  It happens.

[gellar]

Man Harbaugh cracks me up.  He's such a douchecanoe, but he's our douchecanoe:

-Q: How’d you spend your time after the game yesterday?

-HARBAUGH: I was… is this California that everybody just wants to know how you feel? Get to the… care about what you thought, what you did, how you felt, how your pinkie feels. Is that just a California thing?

Back where I come from, nobody really…

-Q: You went to high school in California.

-HARBAUGH: In my opinion, it’s a California thing.

-Q: Can you answer the question–do you feel comfortable answering it?

-HARBAUGH: I don’t. I don’t feel comfortable.

-Q: Is that a California thing?

-HARBAUGH: It’s a Midwestern thing.

[Jimmy the Fish]

In Coach Harbaugh's defense though, the reporters often ask him completely stupid questions. It's been that way all season. From a reader standpoint, who the hell cares how he spent his time after the game? I find it infinitely more entertaining how coach gets annoyed by some of the reporters, simply refuses to answer them, then see how butt-hurt the reporters get.

Personally, I think they have to bring back Alex Smith. I'm sick and tired of the whole "starting from scratch" act they've had to follow the past 9 seasons. Finally, the organization has a path to continuity and bringing in a new QB at this point would be another step backwards. Who else could they possibly get that is going to be significantly better than Smith? Sign him to a 2 or 3 year deal, develop Kaepernick and see where they are after a couple of seasons. What the Niners really need to do is lock up their free agents on defense. Rogers and Goldson in particular.

Clearly though, they have to do something about WR. I agree with Gellar that it's highly doubtful that they would go for one of the big free agent names. They need a physically big possession type receiver that can compliment Davis and/or Walker and a reliable speed guy on the outside. Maybe Kyle Williams can be that speed guy. Who knows. But when your WR depth is down to Swain and Hastings, you have problems. Logically, the Niners will target WR in the draft to fill their needs and maybe try to sign a cheap free agent, like they tried with Braylon Edwards.

Now that it's been almost 24 hours since the game ended, while I am incredibly disappointed that they lost, I have to say this has been the most enjoyable season I've seen since the '95 Super Bowl year. I saw enough from Alex Smith that I think he'll actually be better next season, and of course, the defense was a thing of beauty. Management seems to get it now and Coach Harbaugh has been a revelation. I can't wait for next season to start.

[Jimmy the Fish]

And here is the reporter's snarky column about the whole exchange with Harbaugh over what he did after the game.

http://www.pressdemocrat.com/article/20120123/NEWS/120129789/1057/SPORTS0908?p=1&tc=pg

 

[leo8877]

And here is the reporter's snarky column about the whole exchange with Harbaugh over what he did after the game.

http://www.pressdemocrat.com/article/20120123/NEWS/120129789/1057/SPORTS0908?p=1&tc=pg

 

Like gellar said, he's a douchecanoe, but he's our douchecanoe, except that he doesn't want to be associated with us wine and cheesers

[gellar]

he doesn't want to be associated with us wine and cheesers

I've never understood this label.  Is it supposed to be derogatory?  Wine and cheese are fucking delicious.

[leo8877]

he doesn't want to be associated with us wine and cheesers

I've never understood this label.  Is it supposed to be derogatory?  Wine and cheese are fucking delicious.

I think it's intended to be a derogatory term in the sense SF fans are "soft".  I guess if you're not blue collar you aren't a real fan!!  Real men only drink beer and eat steak!!!  These people aren't exactly lining up for The French Laundry.

[gellar]

he doesn't want to be associated with us wine and cheesers

I've never understood this label.  Is it supposed to be derogatory?  Wine and cheese are fucking delicious.

I think it's intended to be a derogatory term in the sense SF fans are "soft".  I guess if you're not blue collar you aren't a real fan!!  Real men only drink beer and eat steak!!!  These people aren't exactly lining up for The French Laundry.

I enjoy literally all of those things you've listed.  DELICIOUS.

[Devil]

We refer to them as "Pink Hats" here.

That being said, a lot of time is being spent on losers in here, let's get down to some talk of to the Giants kicking ass on that loser Tom Brady and Eli walking away with his second ring!!! 

[leo8877]

http://espn.go.com/nfl/story/_/id/7496925/peyton-manning-talks-indianapolis-colts-changes-uncertain-future

Peyton doesn't like the changes in Indy...maybe he wants to go out West to the Golden Gate!!

[Devil]

http://espn.go.com/nfl/story/_/id/7496925/peyton-manning-talks-indianapolis-colts-changes-uncertain-future

Peyton doesn't like the changes in Indy...maybe he wants to go out West to the Golden Gate!!

JETS!! PLEASE!!!

[Jimmy the Fish]

he doesn't want to be associated with us wine and cheesers

I've never understood this label.  Is it supposed to be derogatory?  Wine and cheese are fucking delicious.

I think it's intended to be a derogatory term in the sense SF fans are "soft".  I guess if you're not blue collar you aren't a real fan!!  Real men only drink beer and eat steak!!!  These people aren't exactly lining up for The French Laundry.

I enjoy literally all of those things you've listed.  DELICIOUS.

LOL, the "wine and cheese" label is a relic of the Niner glory years in the 80's and 90's when the team had a reputation as a "finesse" team and the fan base was older and nowhere are rowdy as the thug fanbase of today 

[rshetts2]

My sister and her husband live in Indy and are huge Colts fans.  They are kind of resigned to the possibility that Manning has played his last in a Colts uniform.  They said most of the local press seems to think that the new Colts management wants to rebuild and trading Manning would free up cash flow and get them some good value in return.  I think if San Fran wants a shot at Manning it will likely cost them on the defensive side of things.  Its certainly not out of the realm of possibilities though.

[Jimmy the Fish]

I highly doubt the Niners will be interested in Manning. Has he even been medically cleared to play football again?

[naednek]

I think the niners are done being the NFL retirement agency...  Hopefully now that we have a good coaching structure, players will want to come over and play for them. 

[gellar]

I highly doubt the Niners will be interested in Manning. Has he even been medically cleared to play football again?

I think if he's clear and he costs a couple of firsts at most... the Niners would be players in that game.  It all depends on cost.

[Jumangi]

Pretty sure if a team trades for Peyton they are still on the hook for the $28 million bonus he's due in March. That's the albatross around the Colts neck right now in dealing with him, unless Manning agrees to renegotiate, or even if they can before then.

[Devil]

I highly doubt the Niners will be interested in Manning. Has he even been medically cleared to play football again?

I think if he's clear and he costs a couple of firsts at most... the Niners would be players in that game.  It all depends on cost.

Yeah - But unfortunately for the Niners, their firsts aren't worth as much as almost any other teams anymore.

[leo8877]

A good article from the WSJ about just how good the Niners Defense was:

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970203806504577179120491199182.html

Even the WSJ says it's a shame football doesn't get to see them (the Niners D) play another week.

[Devil]

Such a shame!! Whaaaaaaah!!!

Really? Really?!? Is that defense going away?

That defense will be front and center for years.

No need for tears. They went from 6-10 to 13-3 in one year! Are they now being relegated to the arena league because of a fumble in OT of the NFC Championship Game!??

Why the obit like they are the Rams of '01?

[gellar]

Such a shame!! Whaaaaaaah!!!

Really? Really?!? Is that defense going away?

That defense will be front and center for years.

No need for tears. They went from 6-10 to 13-3 in one year! Are they now being relegated to the arena league because of a fumble in OT of the NFC Championship Game!??

Why the obit like they are the Rams of '01?

That defense will be considerably worse next year just by virtue of schedule.  I think the Niners have to play @GB, @NO, and @NE.

[leo8877]

Heard on the radio this AM that Colts won't trade Manning, he'll just be cut due to that crazy roster bonus (granted it's sports talk) so maybe he can come west without giving up craziness for it.

[Isgrimnur]

Assuming the rotation holds, yes, they play New England.  Along with the Jets, Bills, and Dolphins (last played in 2008).  And then the entirety of the NFC North (last played in 2009).  Based on the history and my interpretation of the current formula.  And then New Orleans and the Giants, as they all finished first in their division.

[gellar]

Assuming the rotation holds, yes, they play New England.  Along with the Jets, Bills, and Dolphins (last played in 2008).  And then the entirety of the NFC North (last played in 2009).  Based on the history and my interpretation of the current formula.  And then New Orleans and the Giants, as they all finished first in their division.

It was already announced, and it sucks for the 49ers:

HOME: Lions, Bears, Dolphins, Bills, Giants, Rams, Cardinals, Seahawks

AWAY: Packers, Vikings, Saints, Patriots, Jets, Rams, Cardinals, Seahawks

The good news is, I'm probably going to try to go to at least two of those three games.

[Isgrimnur]

Packers are set by the Conference rotation and you would have had them in any eventuality. You get the Saints and Patriots for finishing first. So the division winning finish is responsible for exactly two games.

[gellar]

Packers are set by the Conference rotation and you would have had them in any eventuality. You get the Saints and Patriots for finishing first. So the division winning finish is responsible for exactly two games.

Well first, I'm not sure I care about why.

Second, the point is that those are away games versus home games, thus ostensibly making them more difficult.  I bolded it and everything!

[Isgrimnur]

I made an error.  You get Saints and and Giants for finishing first, and those are split home/away by rule.

In any case, yes, I agree, it's a difficult schedule.  My point is that it was going to be pretty difficult regardless of what you did this year. 

The away game against NE was set up by hosting them in 2008.  You could make the argument that you should be playing GB at home, as they went there in 2009.  And all four of those NFC North games are the exact same locations as they were in 2009.

[Devil]

Such a shame!! Whaaaaaaah!!!

Really? Really?!? Is that defense going away?

That defense will be front and center for years.

No need for tears. They went from 6-10 to 13-3 in one year! Are they now being relegated to the arena league because of a fumble in OT of the NFC Championship Game!??

Why the obit like they are the Rams of '01?

That defense will be considerably worse next year just by virtue of schedule.  I think the Niners have to play @GB, @NO, and @NE.

OK - Then, taking that stance, they were over-rated and beat up on weak teams so we shouldn't care that they didn't make the Super Bowl.

[gellar]

Such a shame!! Whaaaaaaah!!!

Really? Really?!? Is that defense going away?

That defense will be front and center for years.

No need for tears. They went from 6-10 to 13-3 in one year! Are they now being relegated to the arena league because of a fumble in OT of the NFC Championship Game!??

Why the obit like they are the Rams of '01?

That defense will be considerably worse next year just by virtue of schedule.  I think the Niners have to play @GB, @NO, and @NE.

OK - Then, taking that stance, they were over-rated and beat up on weak teams so we shouldn't care that they didn't make the Super Bowl.

Correct!

[Devil]

Come on, gellsy, they were better than that!

Patriots would have lost to the Niners because their LBs would have been able to cover the Pats TEs.

Now the Patriots will lose because the Giants WRs will run wild.

[gellar]

Come on, gellsy, they were better than that!

Patriots would have lost to the Niners because their LBs would have been able to cover the Pats TEs.

Now the Patriots will lose because the Giants WRs will run wild.

They were/are very good, but I really don't think they'll be able to maintain that level of excellence next year as the competition is much better.  Their dominance is overinflated due to playing in the NFC West.  Though then again, they do still get to play the Rams, Seahawks, and Cardinals twice each next year.

[Devil]

When Niners season is over. Football season is over.