http://gamingtrend.com
October 20, 2014, 01:23:55 PM *
Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.

Login with username, password and session length
News:
 
   Home   Help Search Calendar Login Register  
Pages: [1]   Go Down
  Print  
Author Topic: Netflix: 'Rental-by-mail has 5 years left'  (Read 1016 times)
0 Members and 1 Guest are viewing this topic.
PR_GMR
Gaming Trend Senior Member

Offline Offline

Posts: 3426



View Profile
« on: May 28, 2008, 09:58:21 PM »

Get ready to get a big, fat fiber optic connection into your home. According to Netflix, the days of physical media will be over in 5 years. I've been suspecting this for some time, and I think the news is pretty cool. DVD? Blu-Ray? CDs? None of those will survive. Bring it all home with a big, fat fiber optic cable and keep it all tidy-ly stored in an (Apple-made  Tongue) fast media server computer of some sort... connected to a huge screen HDTV. As a filmmaker, I even look forward to the day we might by-pass those shady studios and distributors and bring you the goods straight to you home on release day.
« Last Edit: May 29, 2008, 12:02:18 AM by PR_GMR » Logged
YellowKing
Gaming Trend Senior Member

Offline Offline

Posts: 3144



View Profile
« Reply #1 on: May 28, 2008, 10:04:50 PM »

That article completely misinterpreted what Netflix said. They predicted that the demand for physical media rental by mail would peak in the next five years. That's a long way from saying physical media will be obsolete within five years.

I'm a proponent of the idea that physical media (in terms of consumer consumption) will eventually be obsolete, but it's a long, long way out. The broadband/cable infrastructure is simply not in place to support it, and won't be for many years if not decades.
Logged
Moliere
Gaming Trend Senior Member

Offline Offline

Posts: 5105



View Profile
« Reply #2 on: May 28, 2008, 10:05:49 PM »

Quote from: PR_GMR on May 28, 2008, 09:58:21 PM

As a filmmaker, I even look forward to the day we might by-pass those shady studios and distributors and bring you the goods straight to you home on release day.

Maybe, but there is still something about going to a movie theater and getting the crowd dynamic involved in a great movie. Besides, not everyone can have a PeteRock sized HDTV. Some of us still live in the stone age of CRT, at least until the divorce mortgage is paid off.
Logged

That which can be asserted without evidence, can be dismissed without evidence.
kathode
Gaming Trend Senior Member

Offline Offline

Posts: 2469



View Profile
« Reply #3 on: May 28, 2008, 10:47:06 PM »

Quote from: YellowKing on May 28, 2008, 10:04:50 PM

That article completely misinterpreted what Netflix said. They predicted that the demand for physical media rental by mail would peak in the next five years. That's a long way from saying physical media will be obsolete within five years.

I'm a proponent of the idea that physical media (in terms of consumer consumption) will eventually be obsolete, but it's a long, long way out. The broadband/cable infrastructure is simply not in place to support it, and won't be for many years if not decades.

Yup, I read a report a year or two ago that said switching all of Netflix's delivered movies to digital movies tomorrow would require more bandwidth than the entire US internet currently has available if all other net traffic were stopped.  Craziness.
Logged
heloder
Gaming Trend Reader

Offline Offline

Posts: 434


View Profile
« Reply #4 on: May 28, 2008, 11:08:13 PM »

Yeah that's pretty much nonsense. A lot of people in the US don't even have access to broadband, and you're talking about physical media being dead and everybody having home fiber optic connections within the next five years. If / when it happens, the US certainly won't be the one leading the pack. I wonder how feasible it would be today for say, Japan or western Europe, though.
Logged
Turtle
Gaming Trend Senior Member

Offline Offline

Posts: 9415



View Profile WWW
« Reply #5 on: May 29, 2008, 12:35:30 AM »

Fiber optic rollout is expensive, time consuming, and is a very slow process.

5 years is pushing, even if it is just for peak demand.
Logged
rshetts2
Gaming Trend Senior Member

Offline Offline

Posts: 2420



View Profile
« Reply #6 on: May 29, 2008, 12:50:43 AM »

I have noticed the recent trend of "entertainment" computers and movie specific external hard drives as of late.  While 5 years may be a bit off, the conversion to non physical media is on.  MP3 players have torn into the CD market, its only a matter of time before the same thing happens to video media.
Logged

Can you see the real me? Can ya, CAN YA?
Turtle
Gaming Trend Senior Member

Offline Offline

Posts: 9415



View Profile WWW
« Reply #7 on: May 29, 2008, 01:08:59 AM »

Long with MP3 players you have portable media players, which are basically just a fancy name for mp3 players that also support video formats.  While this is an area where there'll be a lot of growth, the high def formats combined with bigger TVs will also tend to create a market.  That is if the recession in the US doesn't kill off the tech buying market.
Logged
Sarkus
Gaming Trend Senior Member

Offline Offline

Posts: 2593


View Profile
« Reply #8 on: May 29, 2008, 01:44:12 AM »

I could see Netflix being right about it peaking in five years.  It certainly won't be decades before broadband becomes almost universal and I've lived long enough not to question how fast technology can change.  Five years is plenty of time to see a massive shift towards downloading all kinds of media.  If there is demand, it will happen.

Logged

Roger: And you should know, I have no genitals.
Syndey: That's alright.  I have both.

- American Dad
Suitably Ironic Moniker
Gaming Trend Senior Member

Offline Offline

Posts: 1168


WAKKA-WAKKA-WAKKA!!!


View Profile
« Reply #9 on: May 29, 2008, 03:39:33 AM »

Quote from: heloder on May 28, 2008, 11:08:13 PM

Yeah that's pretty much nonsense. A lot of people in the US don't even have access to broadband, and you're talking about physical media being dead and everybody having home fiber optic connections within the next five years. If / when it happens, the US certainly won't be the one leading the pack. I wonder how feasible it would be today for say, Japan or western Europe, though.

I don't know about the rest of Western Europe, but I live about an hour out of Franfurt, and the best I can get in this area (which is hardly backwoods) is a DSL 1000 connection, due to the phone lines. The future may be near, but the infrastructure has yet to catch up. This is undoubtedly true for much of the US, especially in much of the suth and quite a bit of the the rest of the country outside of populated areas that have the cable/phone lines to support it.
Logged

Patriotism means being loyal to your country all the time and to its government when it deserves it - Mark Twain

3ds friend code: 0001-3352-7186
Sarkus
Gaming Trend Senior Member

Offline Offline

Posts: 2593


View Profile
« Reply #10 on: May 29, 2008, 04:01:13 AM »

DSL can be delivered through other sources than cable and phone lines . . .

Sattelite is already there or close and wireless is improving rapidly and using existing cell towers.  That means most of the US already has the infrastructure in place.  I'm using wireless right now, and in the last year they have increased their speeds and are now topping out at 2.0 Mb download speeds. 
Logged

Roger: And you should know, I have no genitals.
Syndey: That's alright.  I have both.

- American Dad
heloder
Gaming Trend Reader

Offline Offline

Posts: 434


View Profile
« Reply #11 on: May 29, 2008, 04:30:35 AM »

Quote from: Sarkus on May 29, 2008, 04:01:13 AM

Sattelite is already there or close and wireless is improving rapidly and using existing cell towers.  That means most of the US already has the infrastructure in place.

Are you sure? Satellite may have the coverage, but I doubt very much that they have the bandwidth to do the kind of on-demand stuff that the OP was talking about. The satellite internet companies certainly aren't anywhere close to it. Hell the fair access policies alone would eliminate any kind of streaming high quality video. Download limits of 200-425 megs a day, with speeds between 700k and 1500k respectively ($60 for the low-end, $80 for the high-end).
Logged
Sarkus
Gaming Trend Senior Member

Offline Offline

Posts: 2593


View Profile
« Reply #12 on: May 29, 2008, 04:50:17 AM »

Quote from: heloder on May 29, 2008, 04:30:35 AM

Quote from: Sarkus on May 29, 2008, 04:01:13 AM

Sattelite is already there or close and wireless is improving rapidly and using existing cell towers.  That means most of the US already has the infrastructure in place.

Are you sure? Satellite may have the coverage, but I doubt very much that they have the bandwidth to do the kind of on-demand stuff that the OP was talking about. The satellite internet companies certainly aren't anywhere close to it. Hell the fair access policies alone would eliminate any kind of streaming high quality video. Download limits of 200-425 megs a day, with speeds between 700k and 1500k respectively ($60 for the low-end, $80 for the high-end).

Right now, sure.  But I don't think those services have hit their technical limits.  I'm not suggesting that we're going to see this tomorrow, but saying it will be "decades," as others in this thread have suggested, is not realistic.

Again, demand can change things very fast.  Were you around when VHS took off?  I was, and before you knew it every little podunk town in the country had a video rental store and they rented the VCR's as well.  If there is demand then you can bet someone will find a way to meet it pretty quickly.

Logged

Roger: And you should know, I have no genitals.
Syndey: That's alright.  I have both.

- American Dad
heloder
Gaming Trend Reader

Offline Offline

Posts: 434


View Profile
« Reply #13 on: May 29, 2008, 07:10:45 AM »

Well no, the only technical limit is the amount of satellites they can put into orbit. I'm just not sure demand for satellite internet will ever increase to the point of making that kind of investment reasonable. They can barely provide adequate service right now, and that's without people demanding that they be able to download a new Bluray movie or AAA game every other night. I don't know how many new satellites they'd have to launch to be able to provide that kind of bandwidth, but I know it's a lot.

And believe me, there's a demand for better service from their current customers. If they're not willing to launch satellites to keep up with the current demand, why should I believe that they'll launch numerous more so they can provide the kind of super high-speed and high-bandwidth service that would be necessary for on-demand media downloading? They just don't have to, because people who use satellite internet almost never have a better alternative.

And while I'm not an ol^H^Hexperienced person, I'm well aware that technology is quick to advance. The problem is, while metropolitan areas have gone from Dial-Up to FiOS in ten years, areas like mine have gone from Dial-Up to...Dial-Up, in the same time frame. It doesn't matter how fast technology advances, if the advances never reach half the population. Unless there's some kind of government mandate, you can't promise that there will be universal broadband in this country, because if it's not deemed cost effective, companies will simply not bother.

Of course I'm probably just bitter. I'm sure we'll get DSL next year.
Logged
YellowKing
Gaming Trend Senior Member

Offline Offline

Posts: 3144



View Profile
« Reply #14 on: May 29, 2008, 12:10:42 PM »

Keep in mind when I said decades, I meant for the kind of infrastructure that would allow for the obsolescence of physical media.

Will we reach a point when on-demand media is widespread and mainstream before that time? I definitely think so. But that point is going to come *long* before physical media is actually rendered obsolete.
Logged
Pages: [1]   Go Up
  Print  
 
Jump to:  

Powered by MySQL Powered by PHP Powered by SMF 1.1.19 | SMF © 2013, Simple Machines
Valid XHTML 1.0! Valid CSS!
Page created in 0.124 seconds with 53 queries. (Pretty URLs adds 0.021s, 2q)