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Author Topic: [WW] GTville VI: Bloodlust GAME OVER - VILLAGERS WIN  (Read 22188 times)
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JayDee
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« Reply #800 on: September 29, 2010, 06:31:25 PM »

Quote from: Cragmyre on September 29, 2010, 06:29:32 PM

Its too bad I'm not a wolf or vampire.  I'm so under the radar I don't even make JayDee's threat assesment smile  Knowing that Scraper claimed to be a special, a fake Seer could easily claim they scanned him and concluded that he was the Wolf Hunter, but then the true hunter could surface.

The rules won't let the hunter protect themselves, but they do have the free protection.  Would that mean the kamikaze attack that failed wore the protection off?

A lot to digest before I cast a vote.  Then again, not casting votes may be getting me in trouble. smile

Oh, you DIDN'T cast a vote at all. How did I miss that. You can add yourself to the list under the other five.  icon_biggrin

Although a wolf would have happily ignored my omission. The fact you pointed it out keeps you near the bottom of the list.
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envy24
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« Reply #801 on: September 29, 2010, 06:32:55 PM »

Quote from: Cragmyre on September 29, 2010, 06:29:32 PM

Its too bad I'm not a wolf or vampire.  I'm so under the radar I don't even make JayDee's threat assesment smile  Knowing that Scraper claimed to be a special, a fake Seer could easily claim they scanned him and concluded that he was the Wolf Hunter, but then the true hunter could surface.

The rules won't let the hunter protect themselves, but they do have the free protection.  Would that mean the kamikaze attack that failed wore the protection off?

A lot to digest before I cast a vote.  Then again, not casting votes may be getting me in trouble. smile

or the kamikaze went after the person protected by the hunter.
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Moliere
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« Reply #802 on: September 29, 2010, 06:35:49 PM »

Quote from: JayDee on September 29, 2010, 06:31:25 PM

Although a wolf would have happily ignored my omission. The fact you pointed it out keeps you near the bottom of the list.

I thought it was because I wasn't part of the cool kids club.  crybaby  It's like P.E. and being picked last for kick ball.
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Isgrimnur
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« Reply #803 on: September 29, 2010, 06:41:09 PM »

I'm on board with letting scoop wander free range today.  If indeed he's an unconverted scanner, the enemies have no reason to let him live longer.  If he's anything else other than the vampire, we lose nothing to let him live.  If he's the vampire, spoofing the seer is a high risk play, not one I think most people would choose.

I have to wonder about the wolves offing Scraper, as he was pinging on most people's radar and was likely headed for an untimely lynch anyway, subdued hints at specialdom notwithstanding. 

That being said, I've got a grudge against theohall for last game and he voted for me yesterday as well.
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Cragmyre
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« Reply #804 on: September 29, 2010, 06:43:05 PM »

Quote from: envy24 on September 29, 2010, 06:32:55 PM

Quote from: Cragmyre on September 29, 2010, 06:29:32 PM

Its too bad I'm not a wolf or vampire.  I'm so under the radar I don't even make JayDee's threat assesment smile  Knowing that Scraper claimed to be a special, a fake Seer could easily claim they scanned him and concluded that he was the Wolf Hunter, but then the true hunter could surface.

The rules won't let the hunter protect themselves, but they do have the free protection.  Would that mean the kamikaze attack that failed wore the protection off?

A lot to digest before I cast a vote.  Then again, not casting votes may be getting me in trouble. smile

or the kamikaze went after the person protected by the hunter.

Which would make more sense since the kamikaze didn't seem to know the victim wouldn't be able to be killed.  So if the wolves communicated, they attempted to kill Scraper.  They were neglected that because of his built in protection.  The kamikaze dies the next day and happens to pick the person that Scraper was protecting, possibly Scoop.  Then, that night, they decide to attempt Scraper again and succeed.  Wouldn't they attempt the Seer again?
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envy24
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« Reply #805 on: September 29, 2010, 06:47:42 PM »

Quote from: Cragmyre on September 29, 2010, 06:43:05 PM

Quote from: envy24 on September 29, 2010, 06:32:55 PM

Quote from: Cragmyre on September 29, 2010, 06:29:32 PM

Its too bad I'm not a wolf or vampire.  I'm so under the radar I don't even make JayDee's threat assesment smile  Knowing that Scraper claimed to be a special, a fake Seer could easily claim they scanned him and concluded that he was the Wolf Hunter, but then the true hunter could surface.

The rules won't let the hunter protect themselves, but they do have the free protection.  Would that mean the kamikaze attack that failed wore the protection off?

A lot to digest before I cast a vote.  Then again, not casting votes may be getting me in trouble. smile

or the kamikaze went after the person protected by the hunter.

Which would make more sense since the kamikaze didn't seem to know the victim wouldn't be able to be killed.  So if the wolves communicated, they attempted to kill Scraper.  They were neglected that because of his built in protection.  The kamikaze dies the next day and happens to pick the person that Scraper was protecting, possibly Scoop.  Then, that night, they decide to attempt Scraper again and succeed.  Wouldn't they attempt the Seer again?

from all the bickering between scoop and scraper i dont see scraper protecting scoop.
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JayDee
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« Reply #806 on: September 29, 2010, 06:48:42 PM »

Quote from: Cragmyre on September 29, 2010, 06:43:05 PM

Wouldn't they attempt the Seer again?

No, because the village had made it very clear that Scoop would be lynched today so the wolves would rather let us do their work for them. What they probably didn't expect is that they would get the WW hunter and thus give us a reason to keep him alive one more night.
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rickfc
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« Reply #807 on: September 29, 2010, 06:50:53 PM »

Quote from: Isgrimnur on September 29, 2010, 06:41:09 PM

I'm on board with letting scoop wander free range today.  If indeed he's an unconverted scanner, the enemies have no reason to let him live longer.  If he's anything else other than the vampire, we lose nothing to let him live.  If he's the vampire, spoofing the seer is a high risk play, not one I think most people would choose.

I have to wonder about the wolves offing Scraper, as he was pinging on most people's radar and was likely headed for an untimely lynch anyway, subdued hints at specialdom notwithstanding. 

That being said, I've got a grudge against theohall for last game and he voted for me yesterday as well.

I can dig it.  withdraw scoopular

lynch theohall
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Soulchilde
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« Reply #808 on: September 29, 2010, 06:51:49 PM »

I'm for letting Scoop live...
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envy24
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« Reply #809 on: September 29, 2010, 06:54:22 PM »

withdraw scoop since the populous seems to want to let him live however i still feel he is a wolf/vamp.


lynch rick because he mostly drops in to post a lynch vote and not much more.
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envy24
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« Reply #810 on: September 29, 2010, 06:56:19 PM »

and according to jaydee's tally and matrix rick was in the middle of the scraper lynch where most believe a wolf would hide.
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Lassr
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« Reply #811 on: September 29, 2010, 07:24:28 PM »

Quote from: envy24 on September 29, 2010, 06:56:19 PM

and according to jaydee's tally and matrix rick was in the middle of the scraper lynch where most believe a wolf would hide.

 thumbsup

I was thinking the same thing.

he's bad guy or uninterested plain villager.

rickfc
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« Reply #812 on: September 29, 2010, 07:26:42 PM »

I think theohall
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Moliere
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« Reply #813 on: September 29, 2010, 07:27:09 PM »

Are we going to keep ignoring the logical infection targets (BP, Lassr, & Scoop) in order to lynch random villagers hoping we get lucky again?
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envy24
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« Reply #814 on: September 29, 2010, 07:34:44 PM »

Quote from: Moliere on September 29, 2010, 07:27:09 PM

Are we going to keep ignoring the logical infection targets (BP, Lassr, & Scoop) in order to lynch random villagers hoping we get lucky again?

well im back from the dead braaai... i mean yes.
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Lassr
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« Reply #815 on: September 29, 2010, 07:44:04 PM »

Quote from: Moliere on September 29, 2010, 07:27:09 PM

Are we going to keep ignoring the logical infection targets (BP, Lassr, & Scoop) in order to lynch random villagers hoping we get lucky again?

most everyone decided to save scoop for tomorrow since the wolves must kill him tonight if he is the seer. I'm not infected yet but I realize I must prove it at some point. I volunteer for the day after scoop. Then you can deal with BP...problem is you start running out of days if they chose to infect someone else...someone they think can help them win.

I'd like to lynch scoop today to see what we have. If we let him live then he's not going to get to scan tonight anyhow, the wolves must kill him. It is way way too risky for the wolves to let the seer live for another scan. There is no gain on their part. Risk getting outed by the seer just to kill another villager trying to find the undertaker, who's powers have weakened with all the reveals (if true).
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« Reply #816 on: September 29, 2010, 07:44:48 PM »

I'll put my money where my mouth is:
withdraw rickfc

lynch scoop
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« Reply #817 on: September 29, 2010, 07:53:53 PM »

In order for Scraper to have gotten eaten last night, he had to have been attacked at least once before giving his natural immunity.  Either it was the night before, or the kamikaze attack.  Unless the vampires are active, but then they would have to have chosen the same target as the wolves.  So I'm thinking the vampires are still searching.

If we are all assuming the wolves would infect we now feel is clear, wouldn't the wolves also suspect that of us as well?  If I were the Alpha I would have infected less likely targets.

I honestly believe that Scoop is the Seer now, so if he has been infected, he will eventually pass off a wolf as an innocent.  For that I'll lynch Scoop
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Cragmyre
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« Reply #818 on: September 29, 2010, 07:55:01 PM »

I'm not going to edit my previous post, but boy is this headcold messing with my grammar and thought process.
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Moliere
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« Reply #819 on: September 29, 2010, 07:56:58 PM »

Quote from: Lassr on September 29, 2010, 07:44:04 PM

most everyone decided to save scoop for tomorrow since the wolves must kill him tonight if he is the seer. I'm not infected yet but I realize I must prove it at some point. I volunteer for the day after scoop. Then you can deal with BP...problem is you start running out of days if they chose to infect someone else...someone they think can help them win.

Infecting the Seer seems like a good way to help the wolves win. Especially when the Seer can conveniently announce that his scan was coincidentally the wolf victim. He was the first outed Special and a great opportunity to mislead the village with his scans. Keeping him alive just gives us more suspect scans. If we can't trust him today why would we trust his scans tomorrow? Of course he will survive the night if he's already been infected.

I know the village doesn't like to lynch the Seer, but he's the most obvious choice for having been infected. Lynch scoop.
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« Reply #820 on: September 29, 2010, 07:58:04 PM »

Quote from: Moliere on September 29, 2010, 07:27:09 PM

Are we going to keep ignoring the logical infection targets (BP, Lassr, & Scoop) in order to lynch random villagers hoping we get lucky again?
   
Moliere, I've been thinking about infection.
   
I am of the opinion that infection has not occurred so far. Lassr started me along this train of thought, but I've been trying to think it through. Here's why I don't think an infection has been tried yet.
   
1. It would have been very tempting for a wolf to infect an outed special (Scoop or Bulletpig) or a scanned innocent (Lassr). However, the wolves would also know we were thinking this way and they would realize that we could easily lynch these players soon, especially Scoop. What better play for the Alpha than to leave them innocent and let us lynch them, one-by-one, burning through our lynch chances along the way?
   
2. The infection is most powerful near the end game. With the vagaries of lynch votes here at GT, there is no telling how the winds will blow from hour to hour. Why risk infecting someone so early on when they may be lynched by a fast forming train (something GT villages have perfected)? It would be much more effective for the Alpha Wolf to hold on to the infection. It's harder for the village to pick a wolf with just two wolves active, rather than three (now one active wolf, rather than two), just by the odds alone. It seems to me that it would be in the Alpha's best interests to hang on to the infection as long as possible. I would think the Alpha probably wouldn't even try to use it until he was at n-1 or n-2, hoping that specials, protections, vamps, etc. might have been somewhat revealed so that the infection isn't blocked.
   
3. Now that the WW Hunter has (supposedly) been killed and revealed, the Alpha could safely infect someone, but I would think they would go for someone flying under the radar, rather than the obvious (Scoop, Bulletpig, Lassr) choices.
   
Anyway, I'm probably way off base, but that's my feeling on infection. I think the Alpha still has it in his back pocket as an insurance policy.
   
However, ***most importantly***, even if an infection has taken place:
   
We know for certain that an infected player is NOT the Alpha and they are NOT the vampire. It is in our best interests to try to find the Alpha or the Vampire (hopefully, before he can activate a Goth) before we worry about the possible infected players.
   

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« Reply #821 on: September 29, 2010, 08:02:54 PM »

Quote from: Qantaga on September 29, 2010, 07:58:04 PM

Quote from: Moliere on September 29, 2010, 07:27:09 PM

Are we going to keep ignoring the logical infection targets (BP, Lassr, & Scoop) in order to lynch random villagers hoping we get lucky again?
   
Moliere, I've been thinking about infection.
   
I am of the opinion that infection has not occurred so far. Lassr started me along this train of thought, but I've been trying to think it through. Here's why I don't think an infection has been tried yet.
   
1. It would have been very tempting for a wolf to infect an outed special (Scoop or Bulletpig) or a scanned innocent (Lassr). However, the wolves would also know we were thinking this way and they would realize that we could easily lynch these players soon, especially Scoop. What better play for the Alpha than to leave them innocent and let us lynch them, one-by-one, burning through our lynch chances along the way?
   
2. The infection is most powerful near the end game. With the vagaries of lynch votes here at GT, there is no telling how the winds will blow from hour to hour. Why risk infecting someone so early on when they may be lynched by a fast forming train (something GT villages have perfected)? It would be much more effective for the Alpha Wolf to hold on to the infection. It's harder for the village to pick a wolf with just two wolves active, rather than three (now one active wolf, rather than two), just by the odds alone. It seems to me that it would be in the Alpha's best interests to hang on to the infection as long as possible. I would think the Alpha probably wouldn't even try to use it until he was at n-1 or n-2, hoping that specials, protections, vamps, etc. might have been somewhat revealed so that the infection isn't blocked.
   
3. Now that the WW Hunter has (supposedly) been killed and revealed, the Alpha could safely infect someone, but I would think they would go for someone flying under the radar, rather than the obvious (Scoop, Bulletpig, Lassr) choices.
   
Anyway, I'm probably way off base, but that's my feeling on infection. I think the Alpha still has it in his back pocket as an insurance policy.
   
However, ***most importantly***, even if an infection has taken place:
   
We know for certain that an infected player is NOT the Alpha and they are NOT the vampire. It is in our best interests to try to find the Alpha or the Vampire (hopefully, before he can activate a Goth) before we worry about the possible infected players.
   



Bingo! You've thought this through which means you are probably the Alpha.  icon_razz

Since the ALpha can infect at anytime why not wait until he gets a train on him them simply infect someone then. One problem is seeing how fast a person can go from lynch target to lynch victim in a matter of hours the Alpha must always be present to guard against that.
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« Reply #822 on: September 29, 2010, 08:05:22 PM »

Quote from: Moliere on September 29, 2010, 07:56:58 PM

Quote from: Lassr on September 29, 2010, 07:44:04 PM

most everyone decided to save scoop for tomorrow since the wolves must kill him tonight if he is the seer. I'm not infected yet but I realize I must prove it at some point. I volunteer for the day after scoop. Then you can deal with BP...problem is you start running out of days if they chose to infect someone else...someone they think can help them win.

Infecting the Seer seems like a good way to help the wolves win. Especially when the Seer can conveniently announce that his scan was coincidentally the wolf victim. He was the first outed Special and a great opportunity to mislead the village with his scans. Keeping him alive just gives us more suspect scans. If we can't trust him today why would we trust his scans tomorrow? Of course he will survive the night if he's already been infected.

I know the village doesn't like to lynch the Seer, but he's the most obvious choice for having been infected. Lynch scoop.

Because we get one more scan from the Seer, ignore it, lynch the Seer and see what the result is. If he was actually innocent we act on his extra scan info. If he was a wolf, we continue to ignore the scan. The ability to get one more scan that *might* be useful is reason enough for me to withhold my vote on Scoop today.

No one seems interested in testing Bulletpig today either.

So withdraw Bulletpig.
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« Reply #823 on: September 29, 2010, 08:06:20 PM »

Further to my point, if he is actually innocent the wolves won't let him live anyway, so they do our job for us and kill him tonight. So let's get someone else instead that might be a wolf or vampire.
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« Reply #824 on: September 29, 2010, 08:07:20 PM »

Quote from: Cragmyre on September 29, 2010, 07:55:01 PM

I'm not going to edit my previous post, but boy is this headcold messing with my grammar and thought process.

newcastle blesses you
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« Reply #825 on: September 29, 2010, 08:07:52 PM »

I feel like I blew it. I thought the was a good chance scaper was lying so I scanned to make sure. Would have been nice if he had data dumped his info do we could have coordinated tonight better.

Doesn't matter now. That was my last scan.

Im on my phone so no long post but soulchilde is starting to worry me greatly.

More later...
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« Reply #826 on: September 29, 2010, 08:11:29 PM »

Quote from: Lassr on September 29, 2010, 08:02:54 PM

Since the ALpha can infect at anytime why not wait until he gets a train on him them simply infect someone then. One problem is seeing how fast a person can go from lynch target to lynch victim in a matter of hours the Alpha must always be present to guard against that.

This was going to be my response as to why I think the infection has already happened. Given the speed at which past games have lynched players it would be dangerous for the Alpha to wait until he was about to be lynched. Although we have been better this game about following Qantaga's request to stop the vote at n-1 to give the person last words. If the Alpha wolf has already infected someone then he is equivalent to a normal wolf now. So hitting either wolf accomplishes the same thing. The question is, do we have a lead on the Alpha like we do on possible infections?
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« Reply #827 on: September 29, 2010, 08:13:32 PM »

OK so i have a question....as of now assuming no one is infected there is only one wolf left to get correct?
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JayDee
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« Reply #828 on: September 29, 2010, 08:17:17 PM »

Quote from: envy24 on September 29, 2010, 08:13:32 PM

OK so i have a question....as of now assuming no one is infected there is only one wolf left to get correct?

Yes. But the vampire may now be active.
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« Reply #829 on: September 29, 2010, 08:18:45 PM »

Quote from: envy24 on September 29, 2010, 08:13:32 PM

OK so i have a question....as of now assuming no one is infected there is only one wolf left to get correct?

correct...so to speak. But as soon as the one wolf gets uncomfortable he will infect another (if he hasn't already).
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« Reply #830 on: September 29, 2010, 08:21:41 PM »

Quote from: Lassr on September 29, 2010, 08:18:45 PM

Quote from: envy24 on September 29, 2010, 08:13:32 PM

OK so i have a question....as of now assuming no one is infected there is only one wolf left to get correct?

correct...so to speak. But as soon as the one wolf gets uncomfortable he will infect another (if he hasn't already).

i get that i was just trying to understand....we could get a quick enough lynch on someone and it be the alpha and get the wolves out of the way  slywink
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« Reply #831 on: September 29, 2010, 08:21:49 PM »

If the Vampires are active, we'll know because of the double kill tonight - unless they manage to pick the same targets as the Werewolves.
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« Reply #832 on: September 29, 2010, 08:24:32 PM »

Quote from: Moliere on September 29, 2010, 08:11:29 PM

If the Alpha wolf has already infected someone then he is equivalent to a normal wolf now. So hitting either wolf accomplishes the same thing. The question is, do we have a lead on the Alpha like we do on possible infections?
   
Here's the math:
   
We have 16 players.
 
There may or may not be a maximum of 1 infected wolf in the pool of Scoop, Lassr, Bulletpig. (Scoop could even be the vamp, but the wolves will kill him tonight if he is the true Seer or the vamp (in other words, not a wolf) and Scoop is lynched tomorrow, if he survives the night).
   
Of the remaining 13 players, there are definitely 4 (Alpha, Vampire, 2 Goths) bad guys and maybe 5 bad guys if there has been an infection already outside of the Scoop, Lassr, Bulletpig group.
   
So, we have either a 33% or a 0% chance of hitting an infected wolf if we lynch one of (Scoop, Lassr, Bulletpig).
   
We have a 30.7% or a 38.5% chance of hitting a bad guy (with the big prize being hitting the Vampire maybe before he activates a Goth), if we look at the other 13 players.
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« Reply #833 on: September 29, 2010, 08:24:35 PM »

Scrapper...sigh...see what you did? Anyway a learning lesson there..i dont blame you for doing the partial reveal, but it hurts us in figuring out who you were...anyway, life rolls on.

Lynching Scoop while tempting to some, I think is shortsighted. Lets let teh wolves do the dirty work. We arent in a rush yet. I am not even sure how close to winning/losing we are. But with 16 people left...1 baddie down, and 5 to go...I think we are doing alright. I think letting him live is the best thing for now. Let's see him get killed off.

ok right now...this is what we got..this scenario assumes the conversion and the goth & vamps hooking up. I much rather paint he worse case scenario then have a false sense of comfort.

16 left

Today -day 3
Lynch 1
Nightkill 1

Tomorrow day 4- 14 left (5 bad 9 good)
Lynch 1
Nk 1

Day 5- 12 - (5 bad 7 good)
L -1
NK - 1

Day 6 - 10 left (5 bad 5 good)..i realize this scenario is a losing one, but wanted to put it out there to just see how it looked like..)
L -1
NK - 1

Looks like we have 3 shots until we lose the game. We are in a pretty good position. Just pounded these out to see where we are. The game can extend once we hit someone.

I think with such a long term view, the alpha's best interest is to wait to use the infection. best usage of it to be honest. Right now most likely he is alone, and we need to figure out who silky's partner was.

Speaking of Silky, we probably should look at how he played...who did he ignore and who ignored him.

I really am puzzled why he went after a blocked target. That really is a bad move...and I wonder why his partner didn't advise him differently...they in all likelihood failed to read their roles and others carefully. That is very instructive to me, and makes me wonder if the wolves are new players with not much experience. That is really an interesting thought to run down...are our wolves rookies who dont pay much attention? If that is the case who coudl the partner be?

People i am wondering about: jaydee, scubav, theohall, and rickfc

I really am curious about scubav, he seems to really be playing around the edges like hiding. I am also kind of thinking that he's hiding.

I seriously think we should let scoop live, no need to lynch him just yet.

Also - scrapper went pretty hard after scoop yesterday...what did he know? Did he not protect him? Did he protect BP?

Was the berzerker going after BP in order to prevent us getting an innocent back?










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newcastle
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« Reply #834 on: September 29, 2010, 08:29:03 PM »

welcome back envy, i hope you arent too miffed or peeved i went after you on the edits....i apologize now and hope no hard feelings. I dont think you cheated, I just wanted to emphasis the point that there are some (me) who take a dim view to edits. I know it's tempting and i realize some folks want to change their grammar and what not...anywho,,,Just the way i am use to playing the game...with a strict no edit rules,

/puts out his hand and a peace pipe as an offering

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Lassr
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« Reply #835 on: September 29, 2010, 08:29:13 PM »

after some thinking and rereading I think I'm OK with letting scoop live one more day.

withdraw scoop

Soulchilde, rickfc, and Ceekay make me  paranoid
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« Reply #836 on: September 29, 2010, 08:30:42 PM »

Quote from: newcastle on September 29, 2010, 08:29:03 PM

welcome back envy,

/puts out his hand and a peace pipe as an offering
   
Good on ya, newcastle!
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Cragmyre
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« Reply #837 on: September 29, 2010, 08:31:18 PM »

Newcastle, if the vampires are active, there could be 2 nightkills unless they target the same player, or they target each other ( though I think that only protects them once ).

But I agree with your logic about Scoop, I also agree with Qantaga's numbers, so I withdraw Scoop
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CeeKay
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« Reply #838 on: September 29, 2010, 08:36:39 PM »

The hunter could block one WW attack on himself, so what if Zerker Silky whet after scraper and not BP like some people are suggesting?

raven, would the zerker attack count towards the hunters one protection from a WW attack?

Maybe it's already been covered in the avalanche of posts.
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Moliere
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« Reply #839 on: September 29, 2010, 08:37:43 PM »

Quote from: newcastle on September 29, 2010, 08:24:35 PM

Lynching Scoop while tempting to some, I think is shortsighted. Lets let teh wolves do the dirty work. We arent in a rush yet. I am not even sure how close to winning/losing we are. But with 16 people left...1 baddie down, and 5 to go...I think we are doing alright. I think letting him live is the best thing for now. Let's see him get killed off.

Ok. Withdraw Scoop. Let's see what happens tonight. Based on Qantaga's math and voting for someone other than BP, Scoop, and Lassr I am leaning towards theohall. His play style has been a little too passive recently.
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