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Author Topic: PS3: We're Sony. You know you'll buy it anyway.  (Read 1887 times)
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« on: May 20, 2006, 04:43:47 PM »

Anyone see this over on Shacknews.com? Not vouching for the credibility of the site or even if this report is true, but it's funny nonetheless:

Sony's Reeves: People Will Buy PS3 Even Without Games

Quote
It's a great day for hubris on the part of European console executives, I guess. Speaking to Computer and Video Games, Sony Computer Entertainment Europe CEO David Reeves had high expectations for PS3's launch despite any hitches it may potentially have. PS3 would sell millions even if it had no games, he claimed. "We have built up a certain brand equity over time since the launch of PlayStation in 1995 and PS2 in 2000 that the first five million are going to buy it, whatever it is, even [if] it didn't have games," said Reeves.


Sony, you are seriously topping yourself time and time again with copious amounts of hilarity. Maybe it's just me, but blatant arrogance like that just rubs me the wrong way.

Don't get wrong, I hope it does well, but between Kuratagi, Reeves, and any other two-bit executive wanting to make statements, it looks like Sony is trying to ice-skate uphill, and the hill just keeps getting higher and further away.
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« Reply #1 on: May 20, 2006, 05:57:30 PM »

Its arrogant but probably true. I'm sure between Japan, US and Europe there's enough hardcore buyers who will buy it no matter the cost.
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« Reply #2 on: May 20, 2006, 08:39:23 PM »

But the problem is when no one else buys it after that first five million. The 360 already has 10 million sold with easily another 10 to 15 million units sold over the next two years. The Wii is going to sell out everywhere the second it hits so Sony won't be tops this generation.

They'll be a distant third.
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« Reply #3 on: May 20, 2006, 11:42:39 PM »

Quote from: "Jumangi"
Its arrogant but probably true. I'm sure between Japan, US and Europe there's enough hardcore buyers who will buy it no matter the cost.

As Mitch said, I personally believe the PS3 will sell out to all the hardcore gamers at launch, but beyond that, it will fail. Nobody wants to spend $500 for a blu-ray player (and a gimped one at that) that can also play games.
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« Reply #4 on: May 21, 2006, 12:28:53 AM »

Quote from: "whiteboyskim"
But the problem is when no one else buys it after that first five million. The 360 already has 10 million sold with easily another 10 to 15 million units sold over the next two years. The Wii is going to sell out everywhere the second it hits so Sony won't be tops this generation.

They'll be a distant third.


The 360 hasn't sold anywhere near 10 million so far. Microsoft hopes to ship ten million to retailers by the end of the year.
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« Reply #5 on: May 21, 2006, 03:11:07 AM »

Am I getting this right, that he thinks millions of people will purchase the PS3, a game console, even if it has *no* games?

Does he envision millions of people paying $500 for a Sony branded doorstop?
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« Reply #6 on: May 21, 2006, 04:04:08 AM »

See, you're thinking of it as a game console.  What it really is is a blu-ray player that happens to use the remote control to play some games.
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« Reply #7 on: May 21, 2006, 04:11:10 AM »

Unbreakable:probably.

My feelings on this are that Sony's thinkins is this:  The first 5 million will sell, no matter what.  I'll take odds from any one of you that this bastard (the PS3) will be IMPOSSIBLE to find two days after launch.  They are maximizing the amount of money they can get out of the first wave of buyers.  When the second batch of units is ready (in early 2007), they will test how fast they will sell. If they sell quickly, Sony will hold the line on the price.  If the sales are slow, they'll know they have hit saturation with the people would are willing to pay throught the nose, and will plan a minor price drop, likely late next year (GTA 4 release, perhaps?).

Whomever it was that said Sony is planning on trying to finance the format war on the backs (and wallets) of gamers, they nailed it on the head.
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« Reply #8 on: May 21, 2006, 04:42:18 AM »

That should be their next gen slogan.

"You'll buy it anyways"
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« Reply #9 on: May 21, 2006, 06:33:54 AM »

Quote from: "whiteboyskim"

They'll be a distant third.


A "distant 3rd"? um yea time to wake up from your dream. I'll admit the system is 3rd on my personal list too, but unless the game developers flee the system(which I don't see happening) it will still sell tens of millions of units over its lifetime.
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« Reply #10 on: May 21, 2006, 07:04:49 AM »

Quote from: "Big Jake"
likely late next year (GTA 4 release, perhaps?).


I believe GTA 4 is destined for an XBox360 launch.

Quote
Whomever it was that said Sony is planning on trying to finance the format war on the backs (and wallets) of gamers, they nailed it on the head.


I said something way back to the effect that Sony was leveraging the PS3 in order to gain mass market penetration for Blu-Ray, but I like the way you put it.  It has bite!
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« Reply #11 on: May 21, 2006, 12:30:04 PM »

GTA4 was announced for both X360 and PS3, scheduled to release simultaneously.  I figure Sony will *know* that a giant system mover being released for the comptetiton that costs a third less than their product will kill them, so it would make an opportune time to gain press and win support for the PS3.
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« Reply #12 on: May 21, 2006, 01:10:50 PM »

Quote from: "Jumangi"
Quote from: "whiteboyskim"

They'll be a distant third.

A "distant 3rd"? um yea time to wake up from your dream. I'll admit the system is 3rd on my personal list too, but unless the game developers flee the system(which I don't see happening) it will still sell tens of millions of units over its lifetime.

The system just won't sell (short of the hardcore), IMHO, at that price. And Sony's gotta be losing at least $200-300 on each console sold to get it there as it is (remember how much HD-DVD players were when they came out? This is not only a Blu-Ray player, but a game system as well). Once the initial wave sells out, it just won't sell.

At that point, some 6 to 9 months down the line, developers will start 'jumping ship' to other consoles that are much cheaper to develop for (the Wii - which also will sell at about 1/3rd the price of the PS3 - as such, will sell as many consoles as Nintendo can put out), as they can't afford to spend the insane amounts of dollars required to develop on the complicated to program for PS3.

I say the PS3 will sell great as a Blu-Ray player. As a game machine, it will fail. And the price has everything to do with it. That, and Sony's expectance that people will buy the thing on name brand 'loyality' alone, no matter how expensive it is.
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« Reply #13 on: May 21, 2006, 03:08:09 PM »

Quote from: "Jumangi"
Quote from: "whiteboyskim"

They'll be a distant third.


A "distant 3rd"? um yea time to wake up from your dream. I'll admit the system is 3rd on my personal list too, but unless the game developers flee the system(which I don't see happening) it will still sell tens of millions of units over its lifetime.


10's of millions is a far cry from the 100+ million PS2's sold. And honestly, I see myself asking for a Wii for christmas before a PS3.

In Japan, it faces the Wii. In the rest of the world, it's the 360. It *IS* quite possible that this is the leg of the race that has Sony fall on its face. Sony isn't an innovator by any stretch of the imagination. Mass consumers made the PS2 what it is, not us hardcore gamers. They've put in "hardcore" upgrades such as BluRay (for DRM and copy protection, not storage capacity). The problem as I see it is that the price is prohibitive of wide-spread adoption. You and I can "reason with" $100-200 extra and say yadda this and yabbut that; it comes down to whether the walmart moms of the world are going to go with a PS3 or a Wii as the "new" thing, or for the X360 and it's second gen games on christmas lists this year.

I think MS is hiding something; something BIG. I'm not talking Halo3 either. They have something in the works that will POP Sony's balloon come launch season. Mark my words. E3 was too easy for them to walk over the Sony side of the house (I mean, SONY basically flopped on the marketting ride unlike last year's little Killzone 2 dog-n-pony show). Sony's got to deliver on promises now, and they're too much into getting things to market to realize how badly they need to come up with some GOLDEN gaming.

I'm not saying they WILL be a distant 3rd, but it is ENTIRELY possible.

Does anybody know what the data read access times are like on a Blu-Ray drive vs DVD? I'm hoping that after all of this that the drive itself (being first-gen) is actually going to CAUSE longer load times.
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« Reply #14 on: May 21, 2006, 04:47:30 PM »

Quote
Does anybody know what the data read access times are like on a Blu-Ray drive vs DVD? I'm hoping that after all of this that the drive itself (being first-gen) is actually going to CAUSE longer load times.


As a likely future (someday) owner of a PS3, I say screw you!  biggrin

And no, I don't root for any of the systems to fail.  I hope they all end up kicking ass in some way.
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« Reply #15 on: May 21, 2006, 04:59:17 PM »

Quote from: "Purge"

10's of millions is a far cry from the 100+ million PS2's sold.


That's not the point. I was responding to the "distant third" comments. People dissed the $399 price of the 360 too. Many "pundits" here dissed the DS as a gimmick too. Now we have some saying this is the death of the PS.
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« Reply #16 on: May 21, 2006, 06:04:28 PM »

Quote from: "Purge"
Does anybody know what the data read access times are like on a Blu-Ray drive vs DVD? I'm hoping that after all of this that the drive itself (being first-gen) is actually going to CAUSE longer load times.


I don't know what the comparison is between blu-ray and DVD, but I did notice that the 360 has a faster DVD drive.
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« Reply #17 on: May 21, 2006, 07:42:39 PM »

Quote from: "Purge"
Does anybody know what the data read access times are like on a Blu-Ray drive vs DVD? I'm hoping that after all of this that the drive itself (being first-gen) is actually going to CAUSE longer load times.

From what little I know (which means that you can't quote me on it :wink: ), the drive that'll be in the PS3 is comparable to the data transfer speeds of the 360.

Just hopefully nowhere near as noisy. biggrin
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« Reply #18 on: May 21, 2006, 08:48:07 PM »

Quote from: "Jumangi"
Quote from: "Purge"

10's of millions is a far cry from the 100+ million PS2's sold.


That's not the point. I was responding to the "distant third" comments. People dissed the $399 price of the 360 too. Many "pundits" here dissed the DS as a gimmick too. Now we have some saying this is the death of the PS.


Retort: if you look at sales, the handheld market traditionally lead consoles in sales. IIRC the gameboy advance is/was king of the hill, the PS2 is not the top-selling video game device on the market today.

Hypothetical: Were the 2009 Q4 worldwide sales reports like this:
360 - 62million
Wii  - 50million
PS3 - 25million
the "distant third" WBS labelled the product would be true.

Insight: 25 million of any product on today's market is a significant customer install base. It just isn't the lions share, and there's no neck-and-neck race.

Digression: context is key. I'd find it disturbing if 25 million meatbags bought toothbrushes worldwide in a year..... or rolls of toilet paper.

Defamation : WBS is a gameplay whore. He isn't a platform whores (fanboi), graphic whore, "lady of the night" or working girl. I don't think he was going for the "Death of Sony".

Elucidation: the prediction was not Sony's demise; it was an comment showing lack of confidence as Sony continuing in the market leadership. It stands to reason if you can't move 50-75 million in the lifespan of the console you are not dominating the market anymore.

Summation: This thread is focuses directly on Sony's flaws; it's almost a foregone conclusion that negative predictions on their upcoming (unfinished) platform would come forth.
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« Reply #19 on: May 21, 2006, 09:32:29 PM »

I find it hard to believe that Sony would go from 110 million sold to only 25 million console sales the next. There are too many developers making games for the platform and Microsoft is very weak in Japan and to a lesser extent in Europe. In the very worst case, they'll still move over 50 million consoles and be in first place for the generation, albeit by a slim margin. Xbox may very well get first place in North America, though.
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« Reply #20 on: May 21, 2006, 10:36:06 PM »

Quote from: "Andrew Mallon"
I find it hard to believe that Sony would go from 110 million sold to only 25 million console sales the next. There are too many developers making games for the platform and Microsoft is very weak in Japan and to a lesser extent in Europe. In the very worst case, they'll still move over 50 million consoles and be in first place for the generation, albeit by a slim margin. Xbox may very well get first place in North America, though.



Many people said the same thing about Nintendo before the N64, and Sony blew em up. It's inevitable, market share will erode if you've been the leader.

A single action, like pricing yourself out of the market, can pretty much destroy your chances at being Market leader.

If Sony doesn't move more units than the competition by the end of the year 2007, you won't see the same amount of software being developed for the system. Initially the sucess of the PS2 will garner them more support, but ultimately if they don't move the console, and software sales suffer then the support will dissappear. Especially if say the Wii, which is cheaper to develop for takes a market lead, companies will focus on that machine because of higher profit margins.

Anyways, the point I am trying to make is that in the console market past performance is not allways a good indicator of future results because each new generation gives a fairly new slate to start from(brand recognition helps ease the transition, but ultimately teh PS3 won't be successful just because the PS2 was, if that were the case Nintendo would've never lost the title as top dog.)
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« Reply #21 on: May 21, 2006, 10:46:14 PM »

How is the console software industry going in Japan?  Is there not a shift towards handheld and mobile devices?  If the North American/EU market continues to grow wouldn't it make sense for developers to shift resources towards these markets both at home (mobile) and abroad (largest install base)?

I'm not sure the console market in Japan is shrinking but I've read rumblings of such elsewhere.  Can't vouch for their accuracy which is why I ask.

That's not to say the 360 will be #1.  I still haven't played a PS3.  Sony knows how to market their product and they simply can't afford to lose that much marketshare.  Then again maybe management really is crazy.

Just looking at DS sales, I can't imagine the Wii not making a killing in Japan.  It's going to be insane if they can convince all those DS owners to hop on board.  Perhaps the portability and library of the DS is the reason.  We shall see.
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« Reply #22 on: May 22, 2006, 02:18:37 AM »

Quote from: "Tebunker"
Quote from: "Andrew Mallon"
I find it hard to believe that Sony would go from 110 million sold to only 25 million console sales the next. There are too many developers making games for the platform and Microsoft is very weak in Japan and to a lesser extent in Europe. In the very worst case, they'll still move over 50 million consoles and be in first place for the generation, albeit by a slim margin. Xbox may very well get first place in North America, though.



Many people said the same thing about Nintendo before the N64, and Sony blew em up. It's inevitable, market share will erode if you've been the leader.

A single action, like pricing yourself out of the market, can pretty much destroy your chances at being Market leader.

If Sony doesn't move more units than the competition by the end of the year 2007, you won't see the same amount of software being developed for the system. Initially the sucess of the PS2 will garner them more support, but ultimately if they don't move the console, and software sales suffer then the support will dissappear. Especially if say the Wii, which is cheaper to develop for takes a market lead, companies will focus on that machine because of higher profit margins.

Anyways, the point I am trying to make is that in the console market past performance is not allways a good indicator of future results because each new generation gives a fairly new slate to start from(brand recognition helps ease the transition, but ultimately teh PS3 won't be successful just because the PS2 was, if that were the case Nintendo would've never lost the title as top dog.)


I'm not saying the PS3 will be successful because of the PS2. Of course it's market share is going to erode because of Sony's boneheaded pricing decision. I'm just calling 'bunk' on these 'distant 3rd' posts. Not gonna happen. Even if Sony sells half the number of PS3s than PS2, they're still going to be in first place this console gen.
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« Reply #23 on: May 22, 2006, 02:56:33 AM »

Here is the way I see it, and it looks like an uphill battle for Sony:

1. They will be last to market...
2. ...and priced considerably higher than everyone else.
3. Their developer's kits aren't even out yet, while developers can already start creating games for their competition.
4. Nintendo is actually courting third party developers this time around, a mistake which was a significant reason the PS2 surged ahead last generation.
5. XBox360 may not be much competition inside Japan, but can Sony actually recover their investment by only being a success in Japan?

I'm not going to yell the sky is falling, but it isnt looking good.  The PS3 experience better be damn close to being in the Matrix if they are going to win people over, because on paper, the score looks pretty stacked against them.

Maybe a victory with Blu-Ray is worth it for Sony to take a hit with this console generation.  But it's a big gamble.  If they actually lose with both the PS3 and Blu-Ray... things are not going to be good in Sonyville.
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« Reply #24 on: May 22, 2006, 03:17:55 AM »

I think Sony probably doesn't make mistake with the high launch price.

If the PS3 is going to be sold out due to the limited production capacity, it makes sense that as a seller you should try to keep the price as high as possible. Instead of people making money off ebaying limited PS3, Sony will take some of those money.

When Microsoft is feeling confidence with their price advantage, Sony can cut the price so that PS3 will cost the same as XBOX360. If Microsoft cut $100 price off for X360, Sony will cut $200 to match the price. And end result is that even if the price is the same, the consumers will think that PS3 is better value purchase since it was $100 more expensive than X360.
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« Reply #25 on: May 22, 2006, 03:32:41 AM »

Quote from: "Andrew Mallon"
I find it hard to believe that Sony would go from 110 million sold to only 25 million console sales the next. There are too many developers making games for the platform and Microsoft is very weak in Japan and to a lesser extent in Europe. In the very worst case, they'll still move over 50 million consoles and be in first place for the generation, albeit by a slim margin. Xbox may very well get first place in North America, though.


110 million shipped over 7 years. How many people have a first or even second gen PS2? Keep in mind there is hardware replacement; the ps2 had the same faulty parts in the first design that had people flipping their PS1's over.

Also, I'm sure europe has no problems with MS; they just don't like waiting 4 months for the same games available in north america. MS has been launching pretty consistantly; Europe is a swing market. smile As a matter of fact, they ALL are. biggrin
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« Reply #26 on: May 22, 2006, 03:37:34 AM »

Quote from: "Victoria Raverna"
When Microsoft is feeling confidence with their price advantage, Sony can cut the price so that PS3 will cost the same as XBOX360. If Microsoft cut $100 price off for X360, Sony will cut $200 to match the price. And end result is that even if the price is the same, the consumers will think that PS3 is better value purchase since it was $100 more expensive than X360.


When it comes to price cuts, MS has the advantage. They are not losing nearly as much per console as they did last-go-round (they learned), whereas Sony has hopped on the expensive train with 1st gen technology. They don't have room to move, and MS is willing to take a hit in the pocketbook to win this. Sony's other lines of business don't all have the profit margins that MS has to support it.
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« Reply #27 on: May 22, 2006, 04:00:46 AM »

Quote from: "Purge"
Quote from: "Andrew Mallon"
I find it hard to believe that Sony would go from 110 million sold to only 25 million console sales the next. There are too many developers making games for the platform and Microsoft is very weak in Japan and to a lesser extent in Europe. In the very worst case, they'll still move over 50 million consoles and be in first place for the generation, albeit by a slim margin. Xbox may very well get first place in North America, though.


110 million shipped over 7 years. How many people have a first or even second gen PS2? Keep in mind there is hardware replacement; the ps2 had the same faulty parts in the first design that had people flipping their PS1's over.


I would bet only a small percentage of households are on their second PS2.

Quote
Also, I'm sure europe has no problems with MS; they just don't like waiting 4 months for the same games available in north america. MS has been launching pretty consistantly; Europe is a swing market. smile As a matter of fact, they ALL are. biggrin


Europe has not warmed to the Xbox or the 360 the way North America has. There is no guarantee that Microsoft will do well there no matter what the price of the 360 or the PS3.
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« Reply #28 on: May 22, 2006, 04:52:16 AM »

Quote from: "Andrew Mallon"
Quote from: "Purge"
Quote from: "Andrew Mallon"
I find it hard to believe that Sony would go from 110 million sold to only 25 million console sales the next. There are too many developers making games for the platform and Microsoft is very weak in Japan and to a lesser extent in Europe. In the very worst case, they'll still move over 50 million consoles and be in first place for the generation, albeit by a slim margin. Xbox may very well get first place in North America, though.


110 million shipped over 7 years. How many people have a first or even second gen PS2? Keep in mind there is hardware replacement; the ps2 had the same faulty parts in the first design that had people flipping their PS1's over.


I would bet only a small percentage of households are on their second PS2.



I would bet it's a lot more than a small percentage.  A number of people are on their third and sometimes fourth system.  There's a reason that Gamestop/EB does such a brisk business in taking in broken systems in trade.
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« Reply #29 on: May 22, 2006, 05:42:27 AM »

I see this being one of two things, and I can't really be sure which it is:

Either the PS3 is a bargaining chip in the next gen DVD format wars,
or else the PS3 is a victim of feature creep.

Either that, or the PS3 is a victim of delays in getting marketable, working Blu-Ray players and/or Cell processors.

Another scary thing is that Sony seems to have hinged most of their company upon the Cell processor.  I've read some of the tech data, and yeah, the Cell sounds impressive as hell.  On paper.  But is Cell really working out as well as their PR states?  I guess only Sony knows that.
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« Reply #30 on: May 22, 2006, 11:36:58 AM »

Wait til the PS3 launches and the games look worse than 360.

Fanboism? No. Just take a look at the stuff coming out on 360. The games already look substantially better then the launch titles did. I expect the same thing will be true for PS3 and 360 titles like Gears of War will look better than PS3 launch titles simply because the developers will have had much more time wiith thhe final hardware.

This might actually be a pretty good reason to limit production initially. The hardcore fans are going to buy the system the first chance they get. A lot of other folks will be shut out of a purchase for a few months, and by then, just like with the 360, the games should start to improve.
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« Reply #31 on: May 22, 2006, 12:10:21 PM »

I know I will be in the minority on this, but personally, even if I had the money to somehow buy a PS3 at launch, I won't now given Sony's elitist attitude.  My chances of getting a PS3 had been slim to none, they are now at no f'in way.  I will buy a Wii (ouch, it hurts so bad to say that systems name) to complement my 360.
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« Reply #32 on: May 22, 2006, 02:46:22 PM »

Quote from: "Andrew Mallon"
I would bet only a small percentage of households are on their second PS2.

Europe has not warmed to the Xbox or the 360 the way North America has. There is no guarantee that Microsoft will do well there no matter what the price of the 360 or the PS3.


If the 3rd party titles come out on both platforms and one is much more accessible than the other, you do the math.

As to the small percentage; I can think of 4 people who have had more than one ps2, and I know two others that are on their fourth.

Also, the platform has been out for almost 7 years. Seven. That's a long damned time for a console. That's a lot of time for them to break down. How many electronics devices with moving parts (such as dvd / cd players) do you have in your home that are older than 5 years?
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whiteboyskim
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« Reply #33 on: May 22, 2006, 06:54:59 PM »

Quote from: "Purge"
Defamation : WBS is a gameplay whore. He isn't a platform whores (fanboi), graphic whore, "lady of the night" or working girl. I don't think he was going for the "Death of Sony".


Spot on, lad. I am first and foremost for the quality of the game. One of the reasons I slap around EA is that they focus on shiny while ignoring gameplay on a lot of their key titles. Then they surprise me by going the other way with The Godfather and crafting a solidly entertaining mafia-themed GTA knock-off that looked like games did three years ago. But it was fun to play and I cranked 40+ hours out of it.

Go figure.

I'm actually all for Sony doing well this round, don't misunderstand me. But every single step they've taken for the PS3 has been cloaked in hubris. I cannot fathom how egotistical one must be to be willing to drive a monolithic global company into the dirt by forcing a format war no consumer wants. They're so convinced of their own superiority that they figure we'll buy it on name recognition alone. Remember the last time this happened to the industry leader?

It was called the Nintendo 64.

Please bear witness as to just how long it's taken Nintendo to climb out of their self-made hole. slywink
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