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Author Topic: PS3 Pre-Order  (Read 1729 times)
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HankRaptor
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« on: January 06, 2006, 01:29:58 PM »

With all this nonsense over blu-ray players being 1800$ im sure the 500 PS3 will be in INSANE demand. Anyone hear when you can pre-order one? I want to order one On the first day this time biggrin
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« Reply #1 on: January 06, 2006, 01:42:00 PM »

Quote from: "HankRaptor"
With all this nonsense over blu-ray players being 1800$ im sure the 500 PS3 will be in INSANE demand. Anyone hear when you can pre-order one? I want to order one On the first day this time biggrin


Well, I'm currently Number 42 on my local Gamestop's list to be called when the PS3 is available to preorder.  

My brother-in-law was able to preorder at FYE but that isn't the type of store I would trust to get a preorder in a timely manner.
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JLu
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« Reply #2 on: January 06, 2006, 02:13:42 PM »

Number 42 on the pre-preorder list!?  Wow.

I wonder if there will be more PS3 preorders after the 360 launch than there might have been otherwise.  I still don't have that much interest in the system, but if I can buy one, EBay it, and then get a system a couple months later effectively for 'free'?  Damn.
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Hetz
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« Reply #3 on: January 06, 2006, 02:21:12 PM »

There is no way that the PS3 with a Blu Ray drive will undercut their partners by that much. They would be basicly saying "F U" to all their manufacturing partners by screwing them over with a PS3 that costs less than half of what a standalone blu-ray player will cost.

It's not going to happen. I think they will pull a 360 and have two sku's, one with blu ray and one without. it's the only thing that makes sense from a financial and business standpoint. The non-blu ray version will be $400-$500 while the blu ray version will be much more.
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« Reply #4 on: January 06, 2006, 02:35:17 PM »

Quote from: "Hetz"
There is no way that the PS3 with a Blu Ray drive will undercut their partners by that much. They would be basicly saying "F U" to all their manufacturing partners by screwing them over with a PS3 that costs less than half of what a standalone blu-ray player will cost.

It's not going to happen. I think they will pull a 360 and have two sku's, one with blu ray and one without. it's the only thing that makes sense from a financial and business standpoint. The non-blu ray version will be $400-$500 while the blu ray version will be much more.


I'm actually with Hetz on this one. Sadly, Microsoft set a bad precedent by pulling it in the first place, but it gives Sony a legitimate "out" to make an affordable PS3 at launch.
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« Reply #5 on: January 06, 2006, 02:38:42 PM »

No, the PS3 will have Blu Ray as the standard drive.  No seperate SKU's, well, at least not for a non-Blu Ray model.  

So what if it's cheaper then a stand alone Blu Ray player?  Do many home theatre enthusiasts actually use an Xbox or PS2 as their DVD player?  No.  If Blu Ray is good, then the PS3 creates a user base and demand for the product.  If people like the tech, then they'll eventually buy a standalone player.  I'm guessing 95% of the people who would buy a PS3 on day one, would not buy a dedicated Blu Ray drive on day one.  I think it's safe to say many people are hesitant to back either HD DVD or Blu Ray since nobody wants the next Betamax.  I know I won't be buying either until one format is the winner.  But if my PS3 can play Blu Ray movies, well I might just start buying some HD movies afterall.

Consoles are always about selling hardware at a loss.  If the PS3 does end up stealing some Blu Ray player sales at the start, it will be worth it in the end to have a much larger Blu Ray market.  Think about it, if all those PS3 owners already have a Blu Ray film library, which format will they back?  And then which format will they eventually buy a dedicated player from?
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Kevin Grey
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« Reply #6 on: January 06, 2006, 02:46:17 PM »

I just don't see a non-Bluray SKU.  Devs have certainly been planning their content all along on the basis of Bluray storage sizes.  Plus, PS3 is effectively the lynchpin of Sony's Bluray strategy.  There will likely be 5 million Bluray players in households in the form of PS3 while standalone Bluray sales are still under a million.  

And I don't see an issue with undercutting their partners- even when PS2 launched at $299 there were plenty of "high end" DVD players that cost $1000 or more (and plenty of sub $300 players too).  Which is really what these initial $1000-1800 Bluray players are for- the high end early adopters.  

While they have "parners" in the Bluray group, let's not forget they are actually "competitors".

Just like with PS2 and DVD, I expect that standalone Bluray players will be more full featured in terms of movie playback options than we are likely to get in PS3.
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Hetz
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« Reply #7 on: January 06, 2006, 06:31:35 PM »

Well, I guess we will wait and see. I am still thinking there will be 2 SKU's....either that or the price of the PS3 is going to be a lot more than people here are expecting. $500+ easily. I can't see it for less than that with a bluray drive, Sony can't stand to lose as much per unit as MS can. They would be a taking a HUGE loss at $399 with a bluray drive.
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« Reply #8 on: January 06, 2006, 06:43:58 PM »

Quote from: "Hetz"
Well, I guess we will wait and see. I am still thinking there will be 2 SKU's....either that or the price of the PS3 is going to be a lot more than people here are expecting. $500+ easily. I can't see it for less than that with a bluray drive, Sony can't stand to lose as much per unit as MS can. They would be a taking a HUGE loss at $399 with a bluray drive.

You're thinking too short term.  If bluray wins, Sony not only gets a piece of every PS3 game sold, but every HD movie sold.  That's a fortune they can't afford to ignore (or lose).  Yes it's a big loss, but it gets them market share in two markets at once.  Sony need the cell to succeed and bluray to succeed.  The only way to ensure that is have the PS3 succeed.  They can't afford to price themselves out of the market any more than they could drop either of those core technologies.
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Kevin Grey
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« Reply #9 on: January 06, 2006, 08:04:05 PM »

Quote from: "Hetz"
They would be a taking a HUGE loss at $399 with a bluray drive.


We have no idea how much the Bluray drive costs.  You don't think those $1000-1800 prices are based on materials do you?  Sony only has to pay the cost of the optical drive components themselves- the cell and RSX handle all of the hardware and software decoding.

HD-DVD standalone players were announced at $500-800 but surely you don't think MS is going to sell their external 360 HD-DVD attachment for anywhere near that?  And unlike the console, there is no interest in MS taking a loss on that.
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pr0ner
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« Reply #10 on: January 06, 2006, 08:29:04 PM »

Bill Hunt of The Digital Bits says he expects the PS3 to come in at $499, Blu-Ray and all.
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« Reply #11 on: January 06, 2006, 08:39:06 PM »

Companies do not always focus on profit from manufactured items.
Sometimes they go after market share or market entrenchment and sacrifice the $$$ up front to do it.

Sony wants to drive a wedge down the HD versus Blue Ray disk sides.
MS is supporting HD. Sony will give up the $$$ up front to help get Blue Ray in the hands of as many users as possible.

The indusrty is split on the media, and whichever conglomerate gains market share will probably win the battle.

This is what will drive the media that movies and such are manufactured to, and that is where the $$$ is down the road five to ten years.

Sony owns buko content so this will make them very happy and rich if they win out.
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Sarkus
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« Reply #12 on: January 07, 2006, 05:38:04 AM »

I still hold to my theory that Sony will launch the PS3, but it will be a "deluxe" version similar to the failed "PSX" deluxe PS2 they tried a few years ago.  They won't really be aiming at the mass market at first and will probably talk about how they envision a transition from PS2 to PS3 rather than a traditional quick switch over.  Remember, at CES they just talked about how they saw the PS2 having a 10 year life cycle and we only just started year six.  The advantage to Sony is that they can charge a higher price for the deluxe PS3 to offset costs, the price will also limit demand which will give them more time to bring Cell and Blu Ray production costs down and bring chip yields up, and they will still be able to say they launched it.  Any price point higher than the premium 360's $400 will be proof in my mind.
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denoginizer
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« Reply #13 on: January 07, 2006, 06:01:16 AM »

I have said it before and I will say it again.  I will not believe anything about the PS3 until I actually see it in action.  Getting a Cell Processor in that form factor and selling the unit including a blue-ray drive for $499?   I hope it is true, but I still have my doubts.  I just remember the claims Sony made during the development of PS2.  What they promised and what they delivered were very different.
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Kevin Grey
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« Reply #14 on: January 07, 2006, 06:10:14 AM »

Quote from: "denoginizer"
I just remember the claims Sony made during the development of PS2.  What they promised and what they delivered were very different.


It isn't nearly as impressive as you remember.  Check out this Sony preview clip of the PS2's potential:

http://ps2movies.ign.com/media/news/video/ps2demos/psx2_1.mpg

Outside of the old man's face, all of that stuff has been easily surpassed with actual PS2 games.
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« Reply #15 on: January 07, 2006, 03:48:54 PM »

Quote from: "Sarkus"
They won't really be aiming at the mass market at first and will probably talk about how they envision a transition from PS2 to PS3 rather than a traditional quick switch over.


That's interesting...is PS3 supposed to have full backward compatibility? One thing that might make me question such a potential strategy is that they have to have developers on board and with the reported costs of making a next gen game, the devs are going to need to shift some copies. How are they going to do that in a big way if Sony isn't doing the same?
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Sarkus
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« Reply #16 on: January 07, 2006, 07:36:45 PM »

Quote from: "Misguided"
That's interesting...is PS3 supposed to have full backward compatibility? One thing that might make me question such a potential strategy is that they have to have developers on board and with the reported costs of making a next gen game, the devs are going to need to shift some copies. How are they going to do that in a big way if Sony isn't doing the same?


All signs are that PS3 is supposed to be almost completely backward compatible to both PS1 and PS2 games, though you will have to start over because the memory cards won't work on the PS3.  

As for the devs, there are a couple of issues to consider.  First, reports indicate that games are behind schedule so a delay would actually work for a lot of developers.  Second, developers don't expect massive sales on launch titles right away anyway.  Even a positive fall release in the US for the PS3 is probably only 1 million units in consumers hands at best.  So, for big publishers it's going to be a while before next gen becomes a significant factor.  Third, Sony can probably make some sort of deal to offset potential developer unhappiness over a delay.

Again, its just my theory.  smile
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« Reply #17 on: January 07, 2006, 08:36:24 PM »

No, it's an interesting one...not trying to splash water on it, just trying to think it through.
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« Reply #18 on: January 07, 2006, 10:23:28 PM »

Quote from: "Misguided"
Quote from: "Sarkus"
They won't really be aiming at the mass market at first and will probably talk about how they envision a transition from PS2 to PS3 rather than a traditional quick switch over.


That's interesting...is PS3 supposed to have full backward compatibility? One thing that might make me question such a potential strategy is that they have to have developers on board and with the reported costs of making a next gen game, the devs are going to need to shift some copies. How are they going to do that in a big way if Sony isn't doing the same?


This is actually probably driven more by the publishers than it is by the console manufacturer.  EA went on record a few years ago stating that they stopped supporting the PS1 way too early.  While it is in the console manufactururer's best interest to push software for their next-gen system, from the publisher's standpoint there is less risk making a game for an install base of 100+ million using existing assets and engines (ie current gen console development) than there is investing a much higher budget for a much, much smaller install base (ie next gen consoles).  

I would expect the PS2 to remain the top selling console for at least the coming year and maybe even the year after that.  Sony's "10 year console life cycle" comments are a reflection of that - it doesn't mean they will wait a decade in between new console launches.
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« Reply #19 on: January 08, 2006, 09:26:27 PM »

Back to the question of pre-orders, I think there's a potential that after the XBox 360 debacle, there might actually be LESS preorders placed.

After all, who would pre-order again at an EB or Gamestop after paying for a 360 back in Sept/Oct and still not receiving their unit?  It's no secret that those who saved the cash then did some camping ended up with their units long before those who preordered.
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« Reply #20 on: January 09, 2006, 12:25:00 AM »

Quote from: "jament"
Back to the question of pre-orders, I think there's a potential that after the XBox 360 debacle, there might actually be LESS preorders placed.

After all, who would pre-order again at an EB or Gamestop after paying for a 360 back in Sept/Oct and still not receiving their unit?  It's no secret that those who saved the cash then did some camping ended up with their units long before those who preordered.


While it's reasonable to think that might occur, all I can tell you is that we have had a lot of people asking about preordering the PS3 since the 360 launch. If anything, I think a lot of people are that much more determined to get on the preorder lists early.
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Sarkus
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« Reply #21 on: January 09, 2006, 02:13:00 AM »

Quote from: "Misguided"
Quote from: "jament"
Back to the question of pre-orders, I think there's a potential that after the XBox 360 debacle, there might actually be LESS preorders placed.

After all, who would pre-order again at an EB or Gamestop after paying for a 360 back in Sept/Oct and still not receiving their unit?  It's no secret that those who saved the cash then did some camping ended up with their units long before those who preordered.


While it's reasonable to think that might occur, all I can tell you is that we have had a lot of people asking about preordering the PS3 since the 360 launch. If anything, I think a lot of people are that much more determined to get on the preorder lists early.


Same experience here.  The fallout from the 360 thing will be fewer pre-orders taken, not a lack of people wanting to do it.  My guess is that there will be a short window to pre-order sometime around whenever Sony announces a US date and then no way of pre-ordering until much closer to launch when availability is much clearer.
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« Reply #22 on: January 09, 2006, 04:29:58 AM »

I probably wont get a PS3 until I know theres no problems and I can get it for cheaper than launch price. Besides my cousin will be first to have one anyways, so I can play his.
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