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Author Topic: October NPDs  (Read 2849 times)
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kronovan
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« Reply #40 on: November 16, 2007, 07:53:30 PM »

Quote from: Kevin Grey on November 16, 2007, 07:31:24 PM

Barring Sony crying "Do-over!", I fully expect Nintendo to be first on the scene with their follow up console.  I think in a couple of years they'll have a Wii 2 that isn't really much more, if at all, powerful than a 360 or PS3 but is obviously more than capable of HD output, at the same $250 price point they launched the Wii at.

I ditto your thoughts on this Kevin. I've often wondered if Big N might be planning on chucking their traditional 5 year life cycle this console gen. If Microsoft does the smart thing and gives the X360 a 5 year life cycle, at a minimum Nintendo will probably release the Wii 2 to go head -to- head with MS's launch. However, if MS sticks to the existing 4 year life cycle I'm not sure Nintendo will cut short the Wii's life to just 3 years.  Although if the Wii 2 still ends up being cheaper than the X720, they could probably get away with it.
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« Reply #41 on: November 16, 2007, 07:55:08 PM »

Quote from: JCC on November 16, 2007, 07:52:38 PM

I am amazed that the Wii has sold 5 million units in the US (in 11 months!) and you STILL can't freaking find one! It seems logical to conclude the Wii will still be hard to find for the rest of the year. When does the insane demand end? 1Q 2008? 2Q2008?

I'm not sure.  Even the DS Lite was hard to find this year.


As a follow up to the DS, Nintendo should shoot for the moon.  What about a Nintendo DS which is a PDA, MP3 player, and potentially even a phone?  Throw in hardware on par with a PSP... and it's one device to rule them all.
« Last Edit: November 16, 2007, 07:57:25 PM by unbreakable » Logged
kronovan
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« Reply #42 on: November 16, 2007, 08:04:10 PM »

Quote from: Eel Snave on November 16, 2007, 07:49:38 PM

I foresee the PS3 going like the Gamecube did, struggling, plodding along in relative obscurity, just laying groundwork for the next console.  But this generation is pretty much screwed at that pace.  They're being outsold by the PS2.

I think we have to wait to see what impact the November price drop will have on sales, but my gut feelings are that you're probably correct. Marketing momentum is a hard thing to stop and Big N's currently got it.
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« Reply #43 on: November 16, 2007, 08:07:56 PM »

Quote from: unbreakable on November 16, 2007, 07:55:08 PM

As a follow up to the DS, Nintendo should shoot for the moon.  What about a Nintendo DS which is a PDA, MP3 player, and potentially even a phone?  Throw in hardware on par with a PSP... and it's one device to rule them all.

It'll never happen. Nintendo is 1st and foremost a games company and and they're too aware of that fact to risk development and manufacturing $'s on a whiz-bang, portable media center.
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« Reply #44 on: November 16, 2007, 08:09:18 PM »

Quote from: kronovan on November 16, 2007, 07:53:30 PM

Quote from: Kevin Grey on November 16, 2007, 07:31:24 PM

Barring Sony crying "Do-over!", I fully expect Nintendo to be first on the scene with their follow up console.  I think in a couple of years they'll have a Wii 2 that isn't really much more, if at all, powerful than a 360 or PS3 but is obviously more than capable of HD output, at the same $250 price point they launched the Wii at.

I ditto your thoughts on this Kevin. I've often wondered if Big N might be planning on chucking their traditional 5 year life cycle this console gen. If Microsoft does the smart thing and gives the X360 a 5 year life cycle, at a minimum Nintendo will probably release the Wii 2 to go head -to- head with MS's launch. However, if MS sticks to the existing 4 year life cycle I'm not sure Nintendo will cut short the Wii's life to just 3 years.  Although if the Wii 2 still ends up being cheaper than the X720, they could probably get away with it.

I think if MS decides to go with a short life cycle again they will be screwing themselves.  I think the lesson of this generation is price matters *a lot*.  While I don't subscribe to the theory that the Wii is doing so well solely because of it's pricepoint, I think there is no doubt that Nintendo is helped by being at $250, MS has been hurt by being at $400, and Sony completely destroyed at $600.

I think the maximum price for consoles in the next generation should be $400.  Which doesn't mean that $400 was appropriate two years ago, but that $400 four or five years from now will be acceptable the same way $300 was in 2000.  So that means that all three consoles really need to wait on the hardware until they can get a suitable power boost and not exceed $400 MSRP.  If MS tries to launch a 360 successor in 2009 or 2010 at $400, I'm dubious if it could be a big enough horsepower increase over the 360 to justify. 

There is also the question of price cut ramping.  It's going to take both MS and Sony a helluva lot longer to get into the $200 and below mass market price point.  Which kind of necessitates a longer generation too. If MS launched in 2009 or 2010, the 360 may still be above $200 and not even reached "mass market". The flip side is that Nintendo started so much closer that they will reach that point much sooner and benefit which could really have them pull away from the other two. 

Sony is a wildcard though.  I don't think they can linger for years on the bottom like Nintendo did because Nintendo's hardware and software model let them be an incredibly profitable third place.  Sony's loss leader strategy means they are going to hemmorage massive amounts of money every year in such a situation.  I fully expect that within two years, Sony throws in the towel, calls PS3 a complete failure, ditches support, and they put a slightly more powerful PS4 on the market in 2010 at $350. 
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« Reply #45 on: November 16, 2007, 08:25:42 PM »

Quote from: kronovan on November 16, 2007, 08:07:56 PM

Quote from: unbreakable on November 16, 2007, 07:55:08 PM

As a follow up to the DS, Nintendo should shoot for the moon.  What about a Nintendo DS which is a PDA, MP3 player, and potentially even a phone?  Throw in hardware on par with a PSP... and it's one device to rule them all.

It'll never happen. Nintendo is 1st and foremost a games company and and they're too aware of that fact to risk development and manufacturing $'s on a whiz-bang, portable media center.

I'm not expecting a full-blown media center.  It doesn't take much energy to make an MP3 player.  Heck, with my R4DS card and Moonshell, I can already use my DS as an MP3 player (it can play video, too, by the way).

I only mentioned the PSP in terms of graphics and processor power.  I'm not expecting an equivalent device.  Hey, if N can design it and still make money from the device, of course it's a good thing (we know Nintendo is not going to accept losing money on it, and rightly so).
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kronovan
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« Reply #46 on: November 16, 2007, 08:27:09 PM »

All good points you made in your last post Kevin.
In regards to Microsoft not going again with a short life cycle; I'd like to think they've seen the light, but that's assuming they won't continue to make bone head decisions like they've made in recent years. In regards to Sony thowing in the towel on the PS3 and going with a PS4 in 2010, I think that will have a lot to do with the status of their Japanese 3rd party support in the next 2 years. If Nintendo eats into it in a big way I can't see them avoiding a PS4 in 2010.
It does all seem to be leading up to a 3 console launch in 2010. which means some of us better save now or plan to contend with one helluva hemorrhaging wallet.
« Last Edit: November 16, 2007, 08:30:43 PM by kronovan » Logged
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« Reply #47 on: November 16, 2007, 08:39:15 PM »

Considering I don't see a compelling reason (personally) to have more than one console from this generation, it is not beyond the realm of possibility that I won't have more than one system next generation either.

That's purely my take at the moment.  If/when the PS3 hits sub-200 I may grab one.
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« Reply #48 on: November 16, 2007, 09:27:43 PM »

Although it is currently fashionable to jump on the bandwagon that is trumpeting that Sony has failed this generation, I think it is still far too early to make that claim. First, Sony has finally made their console price competitive. Second, they still have an amazing stable of first party developers, and as witnessed by Halo and GTA, one title can really catapult a system. Sony is far more likely to find that "magic-bullet" than Microsoft. With the exception of Bungie (who is now "independent") MS has an anemic development stable in contrast to Sony. Third, Sony still has unreleased exclusive behemoths such as Gran Turismo, Final Fantasy, God of War, and Metal Gear Solid.

It also needs to be restated that outside of North America is a very different story. Sony is outselling MS in Europe, and trouncing it in Japan. There is absolutely no indication that this trend will end.

Sony will clearly not retake their #1 title this generation, but I still maintain that they will overtake MS and be the second best selling console of this generation. If you look at the disparity of available software between Sony and MS, Microsoft should be manhandling the PS3. If it hasn't happened by now, chances are it will never happen. Microsoft is in full stride and has already released its flagship title. For all intents and purposes, Sony has only now entered the competition and brought itself down to fighting weight.

If anyone should be worried it is MS- lackluster European sales, abysmal sales in Japan, a massive 1 billion dollar hit on hardware, and the inability to swiftly increase sales in North America despite numerous AAA releases. They are still a regional power that had their eyes firmly set on first place this generation.
« Last Edit: November 16, 2007, 09:29:16 PM by Dante Rising » Logged
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« Reply #49 on: November 16, 2007, 10:36:55 PM »

Looks like the price drop helped in Japan.  PS3 outsold the Wii there (for 1 week, anyway).

gellar
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« Reply #50 on: November 16, 2007, 10:54:59 PM »

Yow, that's pretty good.
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« Reply #51 on: November 16, 2007, 11:33:14 PM »

From Gellar's article:

"Update Nov 16: Japanese entertainment market data firm, Media Create, reported the following sales figures for games consoles in Japan for the week November 5 to November 11."

That's amazing when you consider that the 40gig PS3 didn't even come out in Japan until November 11th.  So the bulk of those PS3's were sold in one day.  I wonder if the PS3 will top the Wii this month.
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« Reply #52 on: November 16, 2007, 11:45:49 PM »

Quote from: kronovan on November 16, 2007, 08:27:09 PM

All good points you made in your last post Kevin.
In regards to Microsoft not going again with a short life cycle; I'd like to think they've seen the light, but that's assuming they won't continue to make bone head decisions like they've made in recent years. In regards to Sony thowing in the towel on the PS3 and going with a PS4 in 2010, I think that will have a lot to do with the status of their Japanese 3rd party support in the next 2 years. If Nintendo eats into it in a big way I can't see them avoiding a PS4 in 2010.
It does all seem to be leading up to a 3 console launch in 2010. which means some of us better save now or plan to contend with one helluva hemorrhaging wallet.

Why do people think MS killed the Xbox 1 off after 4 years on some secret plan? They had no intention of doing that when they made the system. It wasn't some plan to destroy the console life cycle.

None of the 3 will launch another console by 2010. None of them.
« Last Edit: November 16, 2007, 11:47:47 PM by Jumangi » Logged
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« Reply #53 on: November 17, 2007, 12:06:00 AM »

I don't see Nintendo adding an MP3 player into the next iteration of the DS.  They're too nervous about piracy, and being able to put things on a DS would just make them jittery.  Besides, we've seen how well it's worked for the PSP.  How many firmware updates have they made since day 1 to stop piracy?  And how long does it take to crack each one?

I'm still trying to figure out Nintendo's next move, especially with a handheld.  Do they just do a DS with more power, like the Game Boy -> Color -> Advance progression?  Or do they shake it up even more?  Maybe add motion sensing to the DS2?

And what about the Wii?  Are they sure this is the route from now on?  Motion sensing?  Or do they have something else up their sleeve for the next gen?
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« Reply #54 on: November 17, 2007, 12:06:47 AM »

Quote from: Dante Rising on November 16, 2007, 09:27:43 PM

Although it is currently fashionable to jump on the bandwagon that is trumpeting that Sony has failed this generation, I think it is still far too early to make that claim. First, Sony has finally made their console price competitive. Second, they still have an amazing stable of first party developers, and as witnessed by Halo and GTA, one title can really catapult a system. Sony is far more likely to find that "magic-bullet" than Microsoft. With the exception of Bungie (who is now "independent") MS has an anemic development stable in contrast to Sony. Third, Sony still has unreleased exclusive behemoths such as Gran Turismo, Final Fantasy, God of War, and Metal Gear Solid.

It also needs to be restated that outside of North America is a very different story. Sony is outselling MS in Europe, and trouncing it in Japan. There is absolutely no indication that this trend will end.

Sony will clearly not retake their #1 title this generation, but I still maintain that they will overtake MS and be the second best selling console of this generation.If you look at the disparity of available software between Sony and MS, Microsoft should be manhandling the PS3. If it hasn't happened by now, chances are it will never happen. Microsoft is in full stride and has already released its flagship title. For all intents and purposes, Sony has only now entered the competition and brought itself down to fighting weight.

If anyone should be worried it is MS- lackluster European sales, abysmal sales in Japan, a massive 1 billion dollar hit on hardware, and the inability to swiftly increase sales in North America despite numerous AAA releases. They are still a regional power that had their eyes firmly set on first place this generation.

agreed. as mark twain would've said, the reports of the ps3's death have been greatly exaggerated (tho i think there was a certain amount of hope on ms's part that it would be dead at this point, & rightly so, to the extent that, from here on out, it becomes a pretty level playing field, if not slightly tilted in sony's favor, for all the reasons you've stated)...
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« Reply #55 on: November 17, 2007, 03:31:12 AM »

The reason why the 360 hasn't totally roasted the PS3 is due entirely to one thing:

Japan.

Because of (insert reason here), Microsoft's consoles will NEVER sell in Japan, or at best be a niche market. It's hard to be number 1 when you don't sell any consoles in one of the three main world territories.

I look at it this way - the PS3 is bombing (or did until the last price cut) in all three territories. The Wii, for whatever reason, is dominating in all three. And the 360 is doing fantastic in one, so so in another, and completely failing in the third.
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« Reply #56 on: November 17, 2007, 04:14:19 AM »

Quote from: Destructor on November 17, 2007, 03:31:12 AM

And the 360 is doing fantastic in one, so so in another, and completely failing in the third.

I wouldn't go as far as to say the 360 is doing fantastic in North America.  Halo 3 might have turned things around (we'll see how things settle once we get past the holidays), but the 200k or less the 360 was typically doing before that isn't very exceptional. 
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« Reply #57 on: November 17, 2007, 10:11:17 PM »

Quote from: Jumangi on November 16, 2007, 11:45:49 PM

Quote from: kronovan on November 16, 2007, 08:27:09 PM

All good points you made in your last post Kevin.
In regards to Microsoft not going again with a short life cycle; I'd like to think they've seen the light, but that's assuming they won't continue to make bone head decisions like they've made in recent years. In regards to Sony thowing in the towel on the PS3 and going with a PS4 in 2010, I think that will have a lot to do with the status of their Japanese 3rd party support in the next 2 years. If Nintendo eats into it in a big way I can't see them avoiding a PS4 in 2010.
It does all seem to be leading up to a 3 console launch in 2010. which means some of us better save now or plan to contend with one helluva hemorrhaging wallet.

Why do people think MS killed the Xbox 1 off after 4 years on some secret plan? They had no intention of doing that when they made the system. It wasn't some plan to destroy the console life cycle.

None of the 3 will launch another console by 2010. None of them.

I don't think anyone's saying it was necessarily Microsoft's intent from day 1, but it became their intent after about 2.5 - 3 years. And after the 3rd year they even initiated a campaign to persuade 3rd parties from continuing development for it and moving efforts to the 360; which screams 'screw you customer' as far as I'm concerned. In hindsight the XBox had plenty enough resources to continue on for 1 year more and in fact it's quite probable the hardware would have made some money in it's 5th year.

You could argue that it was market strategy that lead to MS cutting the XBox's life cycle short, but you could just as easily argue that it was greed. In regards to none of the players launching a new console in 2010. November 2010 would be the end of the 5th year for the 360, which is the typical life cycle for a gaming console.
« Last Edit: November 18, 2007, 12:24:40 AM by kronovan » Logged
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« Reply #58 on: November 18, 2007, 01:09:52 AM »

http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=208822

Toys R Us no longer participating in NPDs, started with October. TRU tended to heavily favor Nintendo products, so it will be interesting to see how NPD guestimates those sales like they do with Wal-mart.
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« Reply #59 on: November 18, 2007, 01:35:34 PM »

Quote from: Tebunker on November 18, 2007, 01:09:52 AM

http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=208822

Toys R Us no longer participating in NPDs, started with October. TRU tended to heavily favor Nintendo products, so it will be interesting to see how NPD guestimates those sales like they do with Wal-mart.

Is it because they want to hide decling sales to their investors or....?
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« Reply #60 on: November 18, 2007, 02:02:17 PM »

Quote from: ATB on November 18, 2007, 01:35:34 PM

Quote from: Tebunker on November 18, 2007, 01:09:52 AM

http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=208822

Toys R Us no longer participating in NPDs, started with October. TRU tended to heavily favor Nintendo products, so it will be interesting to see how NPD guestimates those sales like they do with Wal-mart.
Is it because they want to hide decling sales to their investors or....?

I'm going to answer 'yes' to this one.
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« Reply #61 on: November 18, 2007, 11:42:35 PM »

Quote from: ATB on November 18, 2007, 01:35:34 PM

Quote from: Tebunker on November 18, 2007, 01:09:52 AM

http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=208822

Toys R Us no longer participating in NPDs, started with October. TRU tended to heavily favor Nintendo products, so it will be interesting to see how NPD guestimates those sales like they do with Wal-mart.

Is it because they want to hide decling sales to their investors or....?

I mean, I guess, but its going to come out in the quarterlies one way or the other.
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« Reply #62 on: November 19, 2007, 12:56:06 AM »

Quote from: Destructor on November 18, 2007, 02:02:17 PM

Quote from: ATB on November 18, 2007, 01:35:34 PM

Quote from: Tebunker on November 18, 2007, 01:09:52 AM

http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=208822

Toys R Us no longer participating in NPDs, started with October. TRU tended to heavily favor Nintendo products, so it will be interesting to see how NPD guestimates those sales like they do with Wal-mart.
Is it because they want to hide decling sales to their investors or....?

I'm going to answer 'yes' to this one.

Is TRU still publicly traded? They were owned by FAO Schwartz who went Bankrupt, and TRU was sold to a private investment group, so I don't think they have anyone to hide from but themselves.
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