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Author Topic: My Christmas Prediction  (Read 4106 times)
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Kevin Grey
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« Reply #40 on: November 29, 2005, 11:28:42 PM »

Quote from: "gellar"
MS didn't take any preorders. Retailers did. MS cannot stop retailers from taking preorders. Joe's Game Shop can take 1 million preorders and fill 2, and MS would have zero control over that.


Preorders aren't done in a vacuum.  Stores didn't even take preorders until they had a SKU from MS and you can bet store management were talking to MS reps as far back as May as to a minimum number of units to expect.  

Most analysts are estimating that MS shipped around 300k  units last week.  To put that in perspective here are the launch units of the most recent consoles:

PS2:  500k
Cube:  400-500k
Xbox 1: 350k
PSP:  1 million

Its likely that MS actually shipped less than any console since the Dreamcast and maybe even longer than that.  With the growing market I can't imagine that retailers (and MS themselves) could reasonably have expected fewer consoles than any of those launches.  

Quote from: "gellar"
MS has sold every unit they've produced so far. I don't think missing Black Friday means that much to them.


Friends and relatives are deciding right around now how their Christmas money is being allocated.  If they feel they have no hope of getting a 360 before Christmas (which the media is certainly playing up) then that $400 is going to go elsewhere- whether its more games for older consoles, an iPod nano, or whatever.

Once the Christmas money is spent it doesn't necessarilly do much good for MS to have plenty of consoles on shelves in January or February.

Yeah, a lot of people will still get the console in the long run but you have these additional factors to consider:

-With Christmas having been missed, some may wait for a price drop.  Yeah, they end up being a 360 owner but MS gets less money.

-They wait until next Christmas and maybe you have PS3 and Revolution as the "new hot things" on the market and more sales are lost.

-360 hits a post launch doldrum (see PSP for most recent example) and people opt to wait even with available product.

Now none of these things spells anything like failure (indeed the PS2 was effected by it all and it still flourished) but it doesn't make it a good thing or mean everything is going to plan.  Every one of those scenarious results in less money for MS.

And consider this- MS's stated plan for this generation is built upon being "first to 10 million" and they want to do this prior PS3 hitting.  I'd love to find an exact percentage on total makeup of Holiday sales but I'm betting that this Christmas would play a huge portion of that.
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« Reply #41 on: November 29, 2005, 11:32:58 PM »

Well let me clarify, I'm not saying MS goal was to ship the number they shipped.  I'm sure they're trying to ship as much as they can right now.  More sales faster is certainly the ultimate goal, but for the purposes of this thread, I'm just trying to bring a business sense into the internet argument table.

gellar
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« Reply #42 on: November 30, 2005, 12:33:43 AM »

KEvin.. TESTIFY

You could not be more right...

Most of the xmas cash will be re-allocated. Opportunity lost.
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« Reply #43 on: November 30, 2005, 12:45:57 AM »

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THe only winner in this mess is the PSP.

Hahaha wow, that's hilarious.  I mean, I don't see how no one else except for TML mentioned you writing this.  This is sarcastic right?  A joke?

DS FTW.  And I can bet money it'll outsell the PSP in terms of both hardware and game sales.

. . . wasn't this supposed to be what the original topic was all about?
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« Reply #44 on: November 30, 2005, 01:02:43 AM »

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THe only winner in this mess is the PSP.

Hahaha wow, that's hilarious.  I mean, I don't see how no one else except for TML mentioned you writing this.  This is sarcastic right?  A joke?

DS FTW.  And I can bet money it'll outsell the PSP in terms of both hardware and game sales.

. . . wasn't this supposed to be what the original topic was all about?


No way the DS outsells the PSP in the US or Europe this holiday. PSP has been absolutely crushing the DS in hardware sales and especially software sales. It's been getting closer in recent months, but the PSP will pick up again in November and December.

The reason the DS has had a price drop in recent months and been bundled with other games is because of lower than expected sales. And this isn't to bash the DS. I'd love to see it blow the PSP out of the water. It just hasn't found its niche yet, especially as the DS target market is the same as the GBA, and Nintendo just released a couple of new Pokemon SKUs for that platform a few months ago.
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« Reply #45 on: November 30, 2005, 01:31:13 AM »

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No way the DS outsells the PSP in the US or Europe this holiday. PSP has been absolutely crushing the DS in hardware sales and especially software sales. It's been getting closer in recent months, but the PSP will pick up again in November and December.


Do we even know October PSP numbers yet?  PSP *was* crushing the DS but the gap has narrowed significantly in recent months and speculation seemed to be that the DS might have edged out PSP for October.

I wouldn't be surprised to see DS outsell PSP this holiday if for no other reason than lower pricepoint.  It really depends on how much GTA drives the PSP.  Despite a generally warm reception the buzz on LCS seems almost nil.  At this point I'd put Mario Kart even with GTA for drawing power (portable not home unit).  In fact, Nintendo reported 112k first week sales of Mario Kart which is pretty close to the numbers that GTA pulled its first week.
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« Reply #46 on: November 30, 2005, 01:31:31 AM »

What constitutes a successful console launch?  I'm not trying to be smart ass in asking, but what criteria has to be met in order for a console launch to be considered a success (or a failure)?

Based on their own criteria, whatever it may be, do you think MS would consider the launch of the xbox 360 a success?  Who knows, maybe based on their own internal metrics and targets they've knocked the ball out of the park.
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« Reply #47 on: November 30, 2005, 03:26:20 AM »

No numbers have been released for the PSP for October.  Which is odd and really unexplainable.

I'd say that a successful console launch would be delivering systems to consumers who want them.  Microsoft hasn't delivered.  However, they *have* sold every 360 they've had on the market, so it's been successful...to them.

But even if the people with 360's LOVE the launch games, LOVE the system, LOVE EVERYTHING, the fact remains that there are gamers out there who want a 360.  And can't get one.  So, to me, it wasn't successful.
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« Reply #48 on: November 30, 2005, 03:27:52 AM »

Quote from: "HankRaptor"


Alot of people are telling me that they cant find a 360, so they are getting their kids a PSP.


How many parents are really planning to spend $500+ on a console this christmas or any other christmas for their kids? Unless, of course, it is the parents that play the games. smile

Same goes for handhelds. I suspect the DS is much more attractive to a parent than the PSP for that very reason, not to mention the game lineup is decidedly more kid friendly.
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« Reply #49 on: November 30, 2005, 04:10:56 AM »

This opening salvo is much less important than how MS handles the launch of the PS3.  In my opinion they need to hold two killer apps (Halo and one other title) and then also drop the price of the Xbox by about $50 when the PS3 launches. And at that point be damned sure that there are Xbox 360 units next to all those "sold out" PS3 signs.

Remember, if MS had sold 10 million units on day one the console would be a disaster if those ten million people rarely bought software.  The number of consoles sold is much less important than the amount of titles purchased per system.

MS has shown that their next system is in high demand. The developers are on board but it will take time to grow the library. In the short term, with the exception of a small number of harcore gamers, most people will only be interested in purchasing one or two titles. There just aren't enought software choices. This makes the system a massive sinkhole while in its infancy.

They won't fret over initial "lost" (I prefer postponed) sales because the harcore gamers are going to buy the system at some point anyway. And these are the people who drive the console's profitability due to the number of titles they consume. It might be better to grab some of these people as costs go down and software availability rises. The name of the game is sustained demand.
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« Reply #50 on: November 30, 2005, 06:06:51 AM »

i dunno im sure microsoft views this as almost a "mini-launch."  they probably had 2 options, hold onto the 360s that were already manufactured and add them to a launch later, or just sell the ones that were already built and ready to go.  then when more were produced, theyd sell those too.

and now people will be worried about them running out again.

personally, i find it cool that if i had wanted to, i wouldnt have had to wait another few months to get my hands on a new xbox - i mean really whats better having a shot at getting an xbox last week, or no one having one for another month or so (assuming the rumors are true)?  plus now theyll be able to refine the box, and the only people who will be hurt with the defective ones are you nutty bastards who probably would have bought 3 by the end of this generation anyway smile
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« Reply #51 on: November 30, 2005, 09:13:31 AM »

I don`t know that much about business, or do I care THAT much. BUT... Simply put, Microsoft isn`t really in a bad place at all, from my view that is.
 There is a HUGE demand for the new system, quite a few good games for it on day one and many more coming. The systems will be on store shelves soon enough. I just saw that gamespot is getting their second shipment.
 The defects are just that. Day one defects. You buy a warranty for that sort of thing and it =peace of mind. These defect numbers will only go down from here.
 Last but not least, Ill still get one in a few months when I can swing the dough for one :wink: .
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« Reply #52 on: November 30, 2005, 12:35:05 PM »

I don't see people buying the DS as a replacement for the 360. Yes the PSP is more expensive, but it is also a closer approximation graphically to the 360 than the DS. Also, we're talking about money people have already committed to spending in theiir minds, so paying 249 instead of 399 is actually a bargain from that standpoint. PSPs are starting to really fly out of our store now.

Personally, I've been pushing Gamecubes to a lot of parents. Cheap as all get out, and some great looking games.

When discussing the launch, I think we really need to separate out the logistics from the hardware. I don't think there's anybody here, Hetz included, who wouldn't scratch their heads and wonder what the heck is up from a logistical standpoint. If you don't agree, try working the front lines for a couple of days and explaining to customers that paid for their systems months ago why they aren't going to have one in time to put under the tree.

I think the hardware problems are being overblown, and the launch lineup is reasonably solid if not awe-inspiring, but the logistics of this whole think flat out stink.
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« Reply #53 on: November 30, 2005, 01:18:32 PM »

Quote from: "TheMissingLink"
No numbers have been released for the PSP for October.  Which is odd and really unexplainable.

I'd say that a successful console launch would be delivering systems to consumers who want them.  Microsoft hasn't delivered.  However, they *have* sold every 360 they've had on the market, so it's been successful...to them.

But even if the people with 360's LOVE the launch games, LOVE the system, LOVE EVERYTHING, the fact remains that there are gamers out there who want a 360.  And can't get one.  So, to me, it wasn't successful.


http://www.usatoday.com/life/2005-11-28-xbox-second-round_x.htm

Second shipment, on it's way!  biggrin
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« Reply #54 on: November 30, 2005, 01:25:27 PM »

Quote from: "philosophist_"
Quote from: "HankRaptor"


Alot of people are telling me that they cant find a 360, so they are getting their kids a PSP.


How many parents are really planning to spend $500+ on a console this christmas or any other christmas for their kids? Unless, of course, it is the parents that play the games. smile

Same goes for handhelds. I suspect the DS is much more attractive to a parent than the PSP for that very reason, not to mention the game lineup is decidedly more kid friendly.


YOU ARE OLD.

I realized something this year.

I AM OLD.

300$ is the new 100$

What I mean by that is, most parents I know, are willing to spend at least 500$ on a kid for xmas.... it is not 1975 anymore when houses cost 22,000.00 houses now cost several hundred thousand dollars. People are buying Ipod's like mad for 300-500. A friend of mine buys a new one every year...
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« Reply #55 on: November 30, 2005, 02:20:04 PM »

I don't understand the problem.  I ordered 2, yes TWO, on Friday November 18th online.  One from WalMart and the other from Circuit City.  It took me almost two hours to complete my order on CC's website, but it went through.

The CC 360 showed up November 23rd.  The WalMart one showed up yesterday.

How can this launch be described as a debacle if I was able to order TWO of them the Friday before launch?
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« Reply #56 on: November 30, 2005, 02:31:46 PM »

Quote from: "Greggy_D"
I don't understand the problem.  I ordered 2, yes TWO, on Friday November 18th online.  One from WalMart and the other from Circuit City.  It took me almost two hours to complete my order on CC's website, but it went through.

The CC 360 showed up November 23rd.  The WalMart one showed up yesterday.

How can this launch be described as a debacle if I was able to order TWO of them the Friday before launch?


O.K. you win. Sell me the extra for cost and I will agree this launch was hugely successful.
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« Reply #57 on: November 30, 2005, 03:03:18 PM »

Quote from: "HankRaptor"


YOU ARE OLD.

I realized something this year.

I AM OLD.

300$ is the new 100$

What I mean by that is, most parents I know, are willing to spend at least 500$ on a kid for xmas.... it is not 1975 anymore when houses cost 22,000.00 houses now cost several hundred thousand dollars. People are buying Ipod's like mad for 300-500. A friend of mine buys a new one every year...


$500 on a kid for christmas? Wow! At least we're training them to be slavish consumers, too... smile These same clueless parents will buy their children very adult games like Condemned and CoD2 and PDZ to go along with their $400 console.

I make a very good salary, and I wouldn't dream of spending that much on a child. I just don't know where Americans find that kind of money. Credit card debt?
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« Reply #58 on: November 30, 2005, 03:09:53 PM »

Bingo! The money lenders in the temple help us celebrate the birth of Christ with portable digital music. Hallelujah! Sing hosanna from on high.
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« Reply #59 on: November 30, 2005, 05:43:18 PM »

How old are we talking? 13? 500$ is apropos.

5 Years old... not so much.

Depends where you live.

In NY the average house here is 500$-750,000.00

ITs all relative I suppose.

Didnt you get an Atari 2600 in the 70s for XMAS?

In 1975 My parent bought their Home for 29,000.00 They bought a PLymouth for 2800.00 NEW

They sold that house in 1995 for 370,000.00 more that 10x the purchase price.

A similarly equiped Car in 2005 is about 15-20K or about 10x give or take.

So 2009.$ American dollars was worth at least 4x (a LOW estimate) in 1975 that 199.99 so today a 2600 is worth AT MINIMUM 500$ NO?

We are not in 1975... 500$ is not a lot of money.
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« Reply #60 on: November 30, 2005, 06:08:32 PM »

Quote from: "HankRaptor"

We are not in 1975... 500$ is not a lot of money.


If you earn, say, 50k per year (probably higher than the median), $500 is 1/100 of your annual salary before taxes! That's a non-trivial amount of money.

But you're right; it's all relative. There's plenty of parents that can afford to spend that much on a 13 year old. However, *most* parents can not.
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« Reply #61 on: November 30, 2005, 06:35:03 PM »

Quote from: "rrmorton"
Bingo! The money lenders in the temple help us celebrate the birth of Christ with portable digital music. Hallelujah! Sing hosanna from on high.


Why sing it when I can download it for $.99 and load it up on my iPod? slywink
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« Reply #62 on: November 30, 2005, 07:13:21 PM »

Quote from: "HankRaptor"
We are not in 1975... 500$ is not a lot of money.


Speak for yourself.  $500 is a nice chunk of change, and I make a decent salary.  It's not a car or a vacation perhaps, but it's not a purchase I'd make without seriously sitting down and going over my budget.
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« Reply #63 on: November 30, 2005, 07:16:45 PM »

Your misunderstanding me.

ITs all relative.

400$ is not alot of money for a CONSOLE LAUNCH in 2005. We are just used to 200$ 25 years ago.


That said, Let me explain.

Im selling you my house. Which is worth 492,000.00 lets say. And you like  iot.

If I tell you the price has change to  492,500.00 your not going to blink an eye.

ITs all relative. Im also jaded living in NY I paid 32.00 to park my Durango in Manhattan this morning..... INSANITY.
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« Reply #64 on: November 30, 2005, 10:23:41 PM »

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« Reply #65 on: November 30, 2005, 11:24:54 PM »

Quote from: "philosophist_"

I make a very good salary, and I wouldn't dream of spending that much on a child. I just don't know where Americans find that kind of money. Credit card debt?

Yeah, pretty much smile

Quote
ITs all relative. Im also jaded living in NY I paid 32.00 to park my Durango in Manhattan this morning..... INSANITY.


Ah, it all becomes clear smile  Yeah, for NY/SF-type residents, $500 is nothing - the cost of living is just so much higher. For those of us outside of huge cities, it's a significant amount.
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« Reply #66 on: December 01, 2005, 02:13:32 AM »

Quote from: "Laner"
Quote from: "philosophist_"

I make a very good salary, and I wouldn't dream of spending that much on a child. I just don't know where Americans find that kind of money. Credit card debt?

Yeah, pretty much smile

Quote
ITs all relative. Im also jaded living in NY I paid 32.00 to park my Durango in Manhattan this morning..... INSANITY.


Ah, it all becomes clear smile  Yeah, for NY/SF-type residents, $500 is nothing - the cost of living is just so much higher. For those of us outside of huge cities, it's a significant amount.


I live in SF and make good money.  $500 is still a lot.

gellar
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« Reply #67 on: December 01, 2005, 01:40:27 PM »

THis is tantamount to my Father running around the house saying he thought bread was expensive at 25 cents a loaf.

Im not attempting to be arrogant by saying 500$ is not alot. Im saying IT AINT WHAT IT USED TO BE.
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« Reply #68 on: December 01, 2005, 02:56:11 PM »

Quote from: "HankRaptor"
THis is tantamount to my Father running around the house saying he thought bread was expensive at 25 cents a loaf.

Im not attempting to be arrogant by saying 500$ is not alot. Im saying IT AINT WHAT IT USED TO BE.

No.  It's not what it used to be.  There was a time when $500 bought you the entirity of a house.  Granted, that was back when the primary mode of transportation was horseback, but it did happen.

But to proclaim "We are not in 1975... 500$ is not a lot of money" is arrogant.  At the very least it's presumptuous.  Wy wife and I are living off one (small) salary while I go back to school.  $500 is half of our rent.  It's 4 weeks of groceries.  Dropping $500 on a video game system is unthinkable in our financial situation.  And we're living better than most of the country.

Yes, the 360 might be commensurate or a better deal than the Atari 2600 after inflation.  That's all well and good.  But those statistics don't live in a vacuum.  I remember the 2600 being considered a major purchase for my family back then.  For most, the 360 is still going to be one today.
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« Reply #69 on: December 01, 2005, 09:54:29 PM »

Thats all I was trying to say.

Ok, Granted its a big gift. But you got a 2600... kids should be able to get a 360 today.

Tis all.
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« Reply #70 on: December 01, 2005, 11:18:16 PM »

Actually, I didn't get a 2600.  My family did.  It was truly for everyone.

The NES on the other hand, that was all me.  biggrin
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