My Christmas Prediction

[HankRaptor]

With the complete debacle that is the 360 Launch. THe only winner in this mess is the PSP.

In fact, Sony is not even lowering the price of the PS2.. they DONT HAVE TO.

Alot of people are telling me that they cant find a 360, so they are getting their kids a PSP.

[msduncan]

Yeah.   This is the worst launch ever.   Period.

I'm angry and sad all at the same time.    If I have to wait until Feb, I might cancel completely and just wait for PS3.

[msduncan]

BTW --  Sony could score a killing blow at this point if they would surprise everyone with a blitz of PS3 announcements and promises of a summer launch.   Unlikely I know.... but if they could pull that card out of their sleeve they would PWN Microsoft.

[HankRaptor]

This is the first launch I missed. Even though I preordered 4 months ago.

And Frankly, With each passing week/day... The sheen is coming off the newness of owning a 360.

What that means is, I will be FAR more practical about what games I am buying and NOT buying. The launch day ferver is gone.

You know who should be violently angry?

SOFTWARE DEVELOPERS: They are losing all the launch day hype and quick software sales. Now people will pick up their 360 preorder in 2006 and grumble and MAYBE buy one or two titles, instead of happily buying 4.

What a mess.

[msduncan]

SOFTWARE DEVELOPERS: They are losing all the launch day hype and quick software sales. Now people will pick up their 360 preorder in 2006 and grumble and MAYBE buy one or two titles, instead of happily buying 4.

What a mess.

Since it's in style to do this these days:

QFT

[Autistic Angel]

SOFTWARE DEVELOPERS: They are losing all the launch day hype and quick software sales. Now people will pick up their 360 preorder in 2006 and grumble and MAYBE buy one or two titles, instead of happily buying 4.

Whenever it is that I receive an X-Box 360, I intend to buy Kameo, Project Gotham Racing 3, and Perfect Dark Zero...unless, of course, there are other, newer games out at the time that pique my interest.  Since I know I'm not alone in my predicament, I have to conclude that some of these software developers will be genuinely hurt by limited sales due to hardware shortages.

-Autistic Angel

[Hetz]

I sense much anger in this thread...

I'm not going to say anything but this: Complete Debacle and Worst.Launch.Ever are a little over the top, don't you think?

 :?:

[jament]

Not if you have one.  Or two.

Duh.

[greeneggsnham]

In an earlier thread, I had defended MS. If they were going to trickle product into the market, thats one thing. If they aren't going to have product available until the start of next year, that's another.

Sadly, it's looking more and more like case B.

So, yeah, if 360's aren't on shelves again until 2006, this will be one of the worst console launches of all time. When people have to wait a -month- or more to purchase your product, that's bad. Even worse when they had preordered your product six months prior. Bad for the developer, bad for the retailers, bad for the consumers.

Any word on why this happened? This can't be what was planned; has anyone heard word why production or shipment targets have been missed?

[Daehawk]

Maybe next summer they will have a 360 / Oblivion bundle

[Autistic Angel]

I sense much anger in this thread...

Speaking for myself, I'm disappointed in the situation, but I follow the political situation here in the United States much too closely to have anger left over for a videogame console shortage.  Let me know when people are using E*Bay to profit off of insulin shortages.  

That said, I wouldn't judge people too harshly for voicing their frustration.  If I'd been given a free X-Box 360 and then successfully turned around and sold my extra unit for a good profit, I'd probably feel pretty satisfied with the launch, too.

-Autistic Angel

[The Grue]

I sense much anger in this thread...

I'm not going to say anything but this: Complete Debacle and Worst.Launch.Ever are a little over the top, don't you think?

 :?:

You know, I thought your fanboyism was cute when it was about Morrowind, but now it is just annoying.  Microsoft has no excuse for this after seeing the debacle that was the PS2 launch.  Why not learn from the mistakes from the past?  Also, why come in here and continuously post that everything is okay when you got yours by winning a contest?  Seriosuly, we get that you like your 360...no need to post comments like this over and over and over.  Let these people bitch.

[TheMissingLink]

THe only winner in this mess is the DS.

Fixed your quote right there.

Seriously though, with the line-up the DS is offering this Xmas (Mario Kart, Animal Crossing, Nintendogs, Mario & Luigi), I see waaaaaaaay more DS's under the tree than PSP's.  Add in the fact that the DS is more affordable and parents everywhere will most likely grab a DS for their children instead of a PSP.

I mean, I'd drop $120 for a DS+game instead of $270 for a PSP+game if I had a child wanting a portable gaming system.  Partly because it's cheaper.  And partly because I like fun games

[CrayolaSmoker]

Ever are a little over the top, don't you think?

Nope.  But thanks for asking.

[CrayolaSmoker]

Yeah.   This is the worst launch ever.   Period.

I'm angry and sad all at the same time.    If I have to wait until Feb, I might cancel completely and just wait for PS3.

Oh quit yer moanin' and play with your hot wife instead!  :wink:

[msduncan]

Yeah.   This is the worst launch ever.   Period.

I'm angry and sad all at the same time.    If I have to wait until Feb, I might cancel completely and just wait for PS3.

Oh quit yer moanin' and play with your hot wife instead!  :wink:

Well that's true.   I think I'll head over to Fredericks of Hollywood and get her a santa outfit....

[whiteboyskim]

Yeah.   This is the worst launch ever.   Period.

I'm angry and sad all at the same time.    If I have to wait until Feb, I might cancel completely and just wait for PS3.

Oh quit yer moanin' and play with your hot wife instead!  :wink:

Well that's true.   I think I'll head over to Fredericks of Hollywood and get her a santa outfit....

Ho ho ho... oh wait, probably shouldn't have said that.

 

For the most part I actually agree with Hetz. While I have zero enthusiasm for the console right now, I know I'll look at it again in a year. Right around that time, we get to judge whether Sony is going to clusterfuck the PS3 release which looks exactly what they are headed for. Expensive to manufacture hardware? Check. Need to mass produce a ton of it in a short period to hit the launch window? Check. Likelihood that gamers are going to experience another console shortage this time next year? Check.

It's the nature of the beast I think. This time next year, you won't be able to walk into a store without seeing 30-50 360's just sitting there waiting to be picked up.

I also think this year is the year of the DS. I'm now anxious to get one, mainly because I lost my GBASP, and Nintendo is actually releasing a ton of games for it unlike someone else *coughPSPcough*.

[gellar]

Also keep in mind that Microsoft is not immune to overwhelming demand.  Most hot product launches, be they consoles, movies, cars, ipods, etc... have a hard time keeping up with our mega-consumer based society.

Cars such as the Dodge Magnum, Volkswagen Beetle, Anything Hybrid sell at HUGE markups and 3+ month waits when they first went on sale.

The Apple iPod Mini also was a bitch to get a few Christmases back.

Every year there is a hot toy that does not meet demand, it happens.

Fuck, people get in line for HOURS to watch a movie, because they want to watch it at X time and the theater simply cannot accomodate that.

This is nothing new.  It just now happens to be for something you want.

gellar

[msduncan]

Also keep in mind that Microsoft is not immune to overwhelming demand.  Most hot product launches, be they consoles, movies, cars, ipods, etc... have a hard time keeping up with our mega-consumer based society.

Cars such as the Dodge Magnum, Volkswagen Beetle, Anything Hybrid sell at HUGE markups and 3+ month waits when they first went on sale.

The Apple iPod Mini also was a bitch to get a few Christmases back.

Every year there is a hot toy that does not meet demand, it happens.

Fuck, people get in line for HOURS to watch a movie, because they want to watch it at X time and the theater simply cannot accomodate that.

This is nothing new.  It just now happens to be for something you want.

gellar

Don't tell me you are buying into the line of 'overwhelming demand'?

I think 'extremely short supply' is probably a lot more accurate.

[whiteboyskim]

Also keep in mind that Microsoft is not immune to overwhelming demand.  Most hot product launches, be they consoles, movies, cars, ipods, etc... have a hard time keeping up with our mega-consumer based society.

Cars such as the Dodge Magnum, Volkswagen Beetle, Anything Hybrid sell at HUGE markups and 3+ month waits when they first went on sale.

The Apple iPod Mini also was a bitch to get a few Christmases back.

Every year there is a hot toy that does not meet demand, it happens.

Fuck, people get in line for HOURS to watch a movie, because they want to watch it at X time and the theater simply cannot accomodate that.

This is nothing new.  It just now happens to be for something you want.

gellar

STOP DEFENDING YOUR COPORATE OVERLORD$, FIEND!!11! LOLOMGHI2UFTW!!11!!

[gellar]

Also keep in mind that Microsoft is not immune to overwhelming demand.  Most hot product launches, be they consoles, movies, cars, ipods, etc... have a hard time keeping up with our mega-consumer based society.

Cars such as the Dodge Magnum, Volkswagen Beetle, Anything Hybrid sell at HUGE markups and 3+ month waits when they first went on sale.

The Apple iPod Mini also was a bitch to get a few Christmases back.

Every year there is a hot toy that does not meet demand, it happens.

Fuck, people get in line for HOURS to watch a movie, because they want to watch it at X time and the theater simply cannot accomodate that.

This is nothing new.  It just now happens to be for something you want.

gellar

Don't tell me you are buying into the line of 'overwhelming demand'?

I think 'extremely short supply' is probably a lot more accurate.

Well either or, it's not an entirely new concept.  They both end in the same result.

Again, MS has said they plan on shipping 3 mil in the first 90 days, which is pretty good.

I honestly had a MUCH harder time getting a PS2 at launch.

gellar

[gellar]

Also keep in mind that Microsoft is not immune to overwhelming demand.  Most hot product launches, be they consoles, movies, cars, ipods, etc... have a hard time keeping up with our mega-consumer based society.

Cars such as the Dodge Magnum, Volkswagen Beetle, Anything Hybrid sell at HUGE markups and 3+ month waits when they first went on sale.

The Apple iPod Mini also was a bitch to get a few Christmases back.

Every year there is a hot toy that does not meet demand, it happens.

Fuck, people get in line for HOURS to watch a movie, because they want to watch it at X time and the theater simply cannot accomodate that.

This is nothing new.  It just now happens to be for something you want.

gellar

STOP DEFENDING YOUR COPORATE OVERLORD$, FIEND!!11! LOLOMGHI2UFTW!!11!!

Dude those guys didn't give me one for free.  They can blow me

gellar

[Laner]

Also keep in mind that Microsoft is not immune to overwhelming demand.  Most hot product launches, be they consoles, movies, cars, ipods, etc... have a hard time keeping up with our mega-consumer based society.

Cars such as the Dodge Magnum, Volkswagen Beetle, Anything Hybrid sell at HUGE markups and 3+ month waits when they first went on sale.

The Apple iPod Mini also was a bitch to get a few Christmases back.

Every year there is a hot toy that does not meet demand, it happens.

Fuck, people get in line for HOURS to watch a movie, because they want to watch it at X time and the theater simply cannot accomodate that.

This is nothing new.  It just now happens to be for something you want.

gellar

Don't tell me you are buying into the line of 'overwhelming demand'?

I think 'extremely short supply' is probably a lot more accurate.

What's the difference, really?  Either way you slice it, more people want 360s than are currently available.

[Hetz]

I sense much anger in this thread...

I'm not going to say anything but this: Complete Debacle and Worst.Launch.Ever are a little over the top, don't you think?

 :?:

You know, I thought your fanboyism was cute when it was about Morrowind, but now it is just annoying.  Microsoft has no excuse for this after seeing the debacle that was the PS2 launch.  Why not learn from the mistakes from the past?  Also, why come in here and continuously post that everything is okay when you got yours by winning a contest?  Seriosuly, we get that you like your 360...no need to post comments like this over and over and over.  Let these people bitch.

 :lol:

I would have still had an Xbox 360 on launch day....cause I preordered my system in MAY and was #3 on the list at Gamestop. People are free to bitch all they want, just like I am free to say it isn't all that bad. It's called an opinion.

Is it a flawless launch....hell no. But it is far from a complete disaster. Lets see if MS actually ships more units before we get all bent out of shape over internet rumors of a massive shortage...k?

[Starshifter]

Hey Hetz can you take a break for a few minutes from all this nonsense and answer my PM question about Kameo I sent you awhile ago? :wink:

[whiteboyskim]

Also keep in mind that Microsoft is not immune to overwhelming demand.  Most hot product launches, be they consoles, movies, cars, ipods, etc... have a hard time keeping up with our mega-consumer based society.

Cars such as the Dodge Magnum, Volkswagen Beetle, Anything Hybrid sell at HUGE markups and 3+ month waits when they first went on sale.

The Apple iPod Mini also was a bitch to get a few Christmases back.

Every year there is a hot toy that does not meet demand, it happens.

Fuck, people get in line for HOURS to watch a movie, because they want to watch it at X time and the theater simply cannot accomodate that.

This is nothing new.  It just now happens to be for something you want.

gellar

STOP DEFENDING YOUR COPORATE OVERLORD$, FIEND!!11! LOLOMGHI2UFTW!!11!!

Dude those guys didn't give me one for free.  They can blow me

gellar

[Hetz]

Hey Hetz can you take a break for a few minutes from all this nonsense and answer my PM question about Kameo I sent you awhile ago? :wink:

Doh!  

Sorry about that. I'll answer it tonight when I get home from work.

[rrmorton]

What's the Kameo question? I want to see if I can answer it!

[Kevin Grey]

Expensive to manufacture hardware? Check. Need to mass produce a ton of it in a short period to hit the launch window? Check. Likelihood that gamers are going to experience another console shortage this time next year? Check. Wink

All of that could be said bout the PSP and they still managed to have one million units for launch in North America.  The fact that Sony had plenty of product and a good launch lineup for the PSP told me that they learned a lot of lessons from the PS2 launch.  Now if only they would learn the lesson about post launch doldrums...

I think the global launch is what is biting MS in the ass and I don't expect Sony to try that.  If those 360s that MS has earmarked for Japan and Europe were in the US then the demand situation would be a whole new game.  

Think about it- if MS had 700k units for launch in one territory that would almost be a record (only the PSP has had more on launch day).  PS2, Cube, and Xbox all launched in the realm of 400-500k.

However, divide that 700k across 3 markets and you are left with a US launch of maybe 300k which is the lowest in recent memory.

[The Grue]

I sense much anger in this thread...

I'm not going to say anything but this: Complete Debacle and Worst.Launch.Ever are a little over the top, don't you think?

 :?:

You know, I thought your fanboyism was cute when it was about Morrowind, but now it is just annoying.  Microsoft has no excuse for this after seeing the debacle that was the PS2 launch.  Why not learn from the mistakes from the past?  Also, why come in here and continuously post that everything is okay when you got yours by winning a contest?  Seriosuly, we get that you like your 360...no need to post comments like this over and over and over.  Let these people bitch.

 :lol:

I would have still had an Xbox 360 on launch day....cause I preordered my system in MAY and was #3 on the list at Gamestop. People are free to bitch all they want, just like I am free to say it isn't all that bad. It's called an opinion.

Is it a flawless launch....hell no. But it is far from a complete disaster. Lets see if MS actually ships more units before we get all bent out of shape over internet rumors of a massive shortage...k?

Sounds fair.  Now, go back to being a fanboy for Oblivion so I can like you better.

[stimpy]

I dont know if this has been brought up, but does anyone have numbers on how many 360s were given away by Pepsi during that promotion? 1 every 10 minutes for how ever long has to add up to alot of units. How is it that a system that was so desperately short at launch was able to hand them out for free? Where is the logic in that? Add in all the other free systems handed out to assorted "celebrities" and such, and it is no wonder the average gamer that was willing to PAY for it is pissed. To me, it is that kinda shit that makes this launch so terrible.

[coopasonic]

I dont know if this has been brought up, but does anyone have numbers on how many 360s were given away by Pepsi during that promotion?

It was a bit over 9,000 systems.

[gellar]

I dont know if this has been brought up, but does anyone have numbers on how many 360s were given away by Pepsi during that promotion? 1 every 10 minutes for how ever long has to add up to alot of units. How is it that a system that was so desperately short at launch was able to hand them out for free? Where is the logic in that? Add in all the other free systems handed out to assorted "celebrities" and such, and it is no wonder the average gamer that was willing to PAY for it is pissed. To me, it is that kinda shit that makes this launch so terrible.

Well that's just Marketing really.  They get more value from giving those systems away than they do from you buying it.

gellar

[stimpy]

I dont know if this has been brought up, but does anyone have numbers on how many 360s were given away by Pepsi during that promotion? 1 every 10 minutes for how ever long has to add up to alot of units. How is it that a system that was so desperately short at launch was able to hand them out for free? Where is the logic in that? Add in all the other free systems handed out to assorted "celebrities" and such, and it is no wonder the average gamer that was willing to PAY for it is pissed. To me, it is that kinda shit that makes this launch so terrible.

Well that's just Marketing really.  They get more value from giving those systems away than they do from you buying it.

gellar

Wow...I dont see how. What good does the publicity do when there is a shortage? What value is there in marketing a system that people cant buy? If anything, I would think the shortage creates negative publicity, not positive. At launch, sure it may be a good thing to have a limited amount. But to not follow up with any for weeks after launch doesnt help sustain the momentum thay had. It stops it. Dead.

[Roguetad]

It’s fair to categorize the 360 launch a mess, unless MS planned the following as part of their successful marketing-sales-distribution campaign:
-  Ship less than 50% of the initial proposed launch day units
-  Fill a very small % of the initial preorders
-  Include a power supply with some units that has the potential to overheat and lock-up the system
-  Completely miss the sales opportunity of Thanksgiving week and the Black Friday weekend, despite the launch occurring earlier that week
-  Have such a shortage of hardware units that the software developers they pushed to have their titles ready by launch, aren’t seeing their titles move off the shelves.
-  Based on local news reports, drive a PR campaign that results in the average joe and jane consumer thinking the Xbox 360 is a defective product that major retailers don’t even have in their inventory anymore.
-  And the big kicker if this one comes true: no major unit shipments until after the holiday.

I can’t see how anyone could categorize the 360 launch as even a semi-success.  A small % of those that wanted 360s have them now, but out of that sample, how many have had problems with them?  Is it less than 10%, more than 20%?  And when will the next major shipments occur?  Or is MS scrambling right now to try and find a better, cost acceptable power supply? From a business case perspective, I’m interested in hearing the truth about what happened.  There had to have been a circus of missteps along the way leading up to launch.  Giant corporations with brilliant people at the top are not immune from poor leadership decisions.          

Have they've actually given away more units than they've sold at this point?

[happydog]

     

stuff...stuff...stuff

Have they've actually given away more units than they've sold at this point?

No. *


*No I don't have any so called "facts" to back that up with.

[whiteboyskim]

Expensive to manufacture hardware? Check. Need to mass produce a ton of it in a short period to hit the launch window? Check. Likelihood that gamers are going to experience another console shortage this time next year? Check. Wink

All of that could be said bout the PSP and they still managed to have one million units for launch in North America.  The fact that Sony had plenty of product and a good launch lineup for the PSP told me that they learned a lot of lessons from the PS2 launch.  Now if only they would learn the lesson about post launch doldrums...

I think the global launch is what is biting MS in the ass and I don't expect Sony to try that.  If those 360s that MS has earmarked for Japan and Europe were in the US then the demand situation would be a whole new game.  

Think about it- if MS had 700k units for launch in one territory that would almost be a record (only the PSP has had more on launch day).  PS2, Cube, and Xbox all launched in the realm of 400-500k.

However, divide that 700k across 3 markets and you are left with a US launch of maybe 300k which is the lowest in recent memory.

Good point. I honestly didn't even think about the PSP launch which was a huge success by all accounts. If Sony comes out of the gates next year with 1 million+ units per territory, and has around 10 A to B grade games, then it will stun me. If they did learn from the PS2 launch, and manage a magnificent launch in 2006, then good on them.

If "Teh Powah Brick" is as big and hot as it supposedly is, then Japan may be completely out. I'm really interested to see how that launch goes. Was it at the same time or is it coming soon? Not sure on that.

[HankRaptor]

Hetz-

Yes.

COMPLETE DEBACLE.

Anytime you have a massive shortage like this, you can even fill pre-orders its a UTTER MESS.

No product for people to buy the important holiday season.

A MESS.

[gellar]

I dont know if this has been brought up, but does anyone have numbers on how many 360s were given away by Pepsi during that promotion? 1 every 10 minutes for how ever long has to add up to alot of units. How is it that a system that was so desperately short at launch was able to hand them out for free? Where is the logic in that? Add in all the other free systems handed out to assorted "celebrities" and such, and it is no wonder the average gamer that was willing to PAY for it is pissed. To me, it is that kinda shit that makes this launch so terrible.

Well that's just Marketing really.  They get more value from giving those systems away than they do from you buying it.

gellar

Wow...I dont see how. What good does the publicity do when there is a shortage? What value is there in marketing a system that people cant buy? If anything, I would think the shortage creates negative publicity, not positive. At launch, sure it may be a good thing to have a limited amount. But to not follow up with any for weeks after launch doesnt help sustain the momentum thay had. It stops it. Dead.

Your thinking is a bit shortsighted.  If you yourself cannot get a 360, someone else got that 360.  MS did not lose a sale.  There is a good chance you're still going to buy a 360 in the future.  Now you might not, but certainly Paris Hilton having an XBox will lead to hundreds of young, horribly impressionable girl seeing their hero (god help us, she is a hero) with a 360, and thus they want one.  Bingo, more demand for a system, which will carry momentum into the future.  Just because people can't get one at Launch does not mean they won't want one later.  They will.

Also, MS has stated this week that there will be a resupply of units and that again, they plan on shipping 3 million in the first 90 days.

gellar

[gellar]

-  Ship less than 50% of the initial proposed launch day units

What was that proposed figure?  How many did they actually ship?  I don't think we have answers to either question, so the 50% figure is pure conjuncture.  I'm open to being proven wrong of that.

-  Fill a very small % of the initial preorders

MS didn't take any preorders.  Retailers did.  MS cannot stop retailers from taking preorders.  Joe's Game Shop can take 1 million preorders and fill 2, and MS would have zero control over that.

-  Include a power supply with some units that has the potential to overheat and lock-up the system

Certainly has happened, but not nearly to as wide a scale as people believe.

-  Completely miss the sales opportunity of Thanksgiving week and the Black Friday weekend, despite the launch occurring earlier that week

MS has sold every unit they've produced so far.  I don't think missing Black Friday means that much to them.

-  Have such a shortage of hardware units that the software developers they pushed to have their titles ready by launch, aren’t seeing their titles move off the shelves.

Source?

-  Based on local news reports, drive a PR campaign that results in the average joe and jane consumer thinking the Xbox 360 is a defective product that major retailers don’t even have in their inventory anymore.

But they still want one.

-  And the big kicker if this one comes true: no major unit shipments until after the holiday.

Not true.

gellar