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Author Topic: MGS4 - 1 million or bust!  (Read 2640 times)
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Ridah
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« on: November 29, 2007, 05:57:46 PM »

Ran into this article at Reuters: http://www.reuters.com/article/technologyNews/idUSLAU93973120071129?pageNumber=1&virtualBrandChannel=0

I found it to be an interesting read regarding sales expectations of Metal Gear Solid 4 and Sony's position on 3rd party conent. Basically, in order to meet production costs, MGS4 has to sell a million copies on its first day. I'm not sure what they are expecting past that but obviously they are hoping MGS4 is the next Halo 3 which, let's face it, isn't gonna happen.

I think these guys are floating on clouds expecting those kind of sales on the PS3, all the more reason to expect a 360 port not too far down the line.

« Last Edit: November 29, 2007, 06:00:19 PM by Ridah » Logged

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« Reply #1 on: November 29, 2007, 06:10:28 PM »

Why does it matter if it sells that many on the first day or through it's lifetime?
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« Reply #2 on: November 29, 2007, 06:11:04 PM »

I'm glad the pundits aren't again putting too much pressure on annointing yet another PS3 game as the Savior of the Console.  Roll Eyes

I'm starting to be reminded of Monty Python's "The Life of Brian."

"Look! MGS4! It's the chosen one!"
"Yes! SAVE US, MGS4! Lead us to the promised land!"
"What? No. I'm just a game. Maybe a good game. But I'm not..."
"THERE! MGS4! It is the CHOSEN ONE! IT WILL LEAD US TO THE PS3's HOLY GRAIL!"
"No! NO! I'm just a game! Stop it! I'm not..."
"MGS4! All will fall before it's might and it will lead us to redemption!"
Etc.  icon_lol
« Last Edit: November 29, 2007, 06:15:02 PM by Blackjack » Logged

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« Reply #3 on: November 29, 2007, 06:11:27 PM »

Quote from: leo8877 on November 29, 2007, 06:10:28 PM

Why does it matter if it sells that many on the first day or through it's lifetime?

That's what I was wondering as well.  If it is to recoup production costs, it shouldn't matter if it takes 1 day or 2 weeks to reach that.
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« Reply #4 on: November 29, 2007, 06:13:26 PM »

Am I the only one who absolutely hated the MGS games?
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« Reply #5 on: November 29, 2007, 06:15:42 PM »

Quote from: QP on November 29, 2007, 06:13:26 PM

Am I the only one who absolutely hated the MGS games?

Absolutely not.

gellar
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« Reply #6 on: November 29, 2007, 06:23:51 PM »

Quote from: QP on November 29, 2007, 06:13:26 PM

Am I the only one who absolutely hated the MGS games?

I liked the the first one, but after that....
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rickfc
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« Reply #7 on: November 29, 2007, 06:58:44 PM »

Quote from: gellar on November 29, 2007, 06:15:42 PM

Quote from: QP on November 29, 2007, 06:13:26 PM

Am I the only one who absolutely hated the MGS games?

Absolutely not.

gellar

I played MGS the first time with Sons of Liberty, and I was doing ok with it until they started going on about the La Le Li Lu La, or something just as ridiculous.  The game went straight to Gamestop within the hour.
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« Reply #8 on: November 29, 2007, 07:03:41 PM »

Quote from: The Grue on November 29, 2007, 06:11:27 PM

Quote from: leo8877 on November 29, 2007, 06:10:28 PM

Why does it matter if it sells that many on the first day or through it's lifetime?

That's what I was wondering as well.  If it is to recoup production costs, it shouldn't matter if it takes 1 day or 2 weeks to reach that.

I believe this has to do with the normal selling model of games.  A new game sells the bulk of its total sales in the first day to 1st week and then declines very rapidly.  Most games' sales models are like this.  It's not that they need to sell 1 million total, but higher than a million overall with a million on the first day.

Exceptions do occur:  Guitar Hero 1 got bigger and bigger as time went on.   

- shaggy
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« Reply #9 on: November 29, 2007, 07:09:47 PM »

One interesting question they bring up in the article, is this enough of a killer app that will drive people to buy a PS3?  I know quite a few fans of the series that aren't planning on buying the PS3 for MGS4. 
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« Reply #10 on: November 29, 2007, 07:12:15 PM »

Quote from: shaggydoug on November 29, 2007, 07:03:41 PM

Quote from: The Grue on November 29, 2007, 06:11:27 PM

Quote from: leo8877 on November 29, 2007, 06:10:28 PM

Why does it matter if it sells that many on the first day or through it's lifetime?

That's what I was wondering as well.  If it is to recoup production costs, it shouldn't matter if it takes 1 day or 2 weeks to reach that.

I believe this has to do with the normal selling model of games.  A new game sells the bulk of its total sales in the first day to 1st week and then declines very rapidly.  Most games' sales models are like this.  It's not that they need to sell 1 million total, but higher than a million overall with a million on the first day.

Exceptions do occur:  Guitar Hero 1 got bigger and bigger as time went on.   

- shaggy


Yeah, that's what I was thinking. They're saying day 1 figures needed based on the typical trend in sales.
Kind of a shame the game isn't out now. It would make a PS3 purchase for Christmas more compelling.
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« Reply #11 on: November 29, 2007, 07:19:17 PM »

That's either a misquote or pure insanity.  Yes, a lot of game sales come within the first week of release but no one short of maybe MS and Halo mandate first day sales.  Well, maybe SE and Dragon Quest but that's pretty much it. 

However, if they are talking about a simultaneous worldwide release then it becomes slightly less insane- MGS is actually almost equally popular in all three major territories so that means each territory "only" has to put up about 300-400k day one sales.  And Japan is far more skewed toward day one sales than the other two territories. 

I'm thinking it's either:

1) A misquote and they meant first month.

2) A poke at Sony to ensure that they continue to aggressively price cut the system as well as push the advertising on it in an effort to get install base. 

3) A forewarning that the game isn't coming unit Fall '08 where the install base might actually be high enough to make these projections have a decent chance of happening. 
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« Reply #12 on: November 29, 2007, 07:20:34 PM »

Quote from: faide on November 29, 2007, 07:09:47 PM

One interesting question they bring up in the article, is this enough of a killer app that will drive people to buy a PS3?  I know quite a few fans of the series that aren't planning on buying the PS3 for MGS4. 


No it's not enough of a killer app to drive hardware sales.  Any hardware shifts from the release of MGS4 will be a one month blip at most unless Sony can couple it with either a price drop or some other high profile software to get a bit of momentum going. 
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« Reply #13 on: November 29, 2007, 07:25:24 PM »

Have they sold a million PS3s yet?
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« Reply #14 on: November 29, 2007, 07:52:57 PM »

No matter how good MGS4 is I think the series has become to polarizing to become a runaway mainstream success. 

There are alot of people who love Metal Gear.  And there are alot of people who despise it.  Unfortunatley I do not think the recent trailers have done anything to change peoples' minds about the series one way or the other.
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« Reply #15 on: November 29, 2007, 07:55:55 PM »

Okay, just stop it with the MGS4 multiplatform stuff.  PS3 isn't getting Mass Effect, BioShock, or Alan Wake, but we do get MGS4 and Final Fantasy exclusive, period.  That is just the way it is.

That said, I think it will sell multimillion units, rather quickly too.  Why?  The MGS series is pretty similar to the Halo series in terms of how well they know the demand for the game and its market.

Just like there were many who didn't like, or just didn't think Halo was all that special, it still sold great.  The same goes for MGS4.

The PS3 has actually been selling on par for a system 1 year out of release, still roughly half that of the 360, I think around 5-6 million units now.  I do think the game will drive system sales, but not that much.  However, when has any 1 game ever convinced you to buy a system?  It's always the library of games alongside the few high profile top tier titles, the PS3 is getting such a library.
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« Reply #16 on: November 29, 2007, 07:56:17 PM »

Quote from: denoginizer on November 29, 2007, 07:52:57 PM

No matter how good MGS4 is I think the series has become to polarizing to become a runaway mainstream success. 

Exactly.  As long as they maintain their current storyline (which MGS4 should close out) then their audience will be necessarilly limited and I hope Konami isn't stupid enough to think they can still grow the franchise.
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« Reply #17 on: November 29, 2007, 08:00:21 PM »

Quote from: Turtle on November 29, 2007, 07:55:55 PM

That said, I think it will sell multimillion units, rather quickly too.  Why?  The MGS series is pretty similar to the Halo series in terms of how well they know the demand for the game and its market.

Not really.  They pretty much bungled MGS3's release.  It got totally eclipsed in the Holiday 2004 rush against Halo 2, GTA:SA, and HL2, especially after so many hated MGS2.  That MGS3 eventually ended up doing well is a testament to some strong word of mouth to the game but the series has never really recovered from the reception that MGS2 got.

A lot of stuff I've read from Konami indicate to me that they are over estimating the series' popularity. 
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« Reply #18 on: November 29, 2007, 08:55:00 PM »

Actually, someone posted sales numbers that MGS3 still sold multiple millions of units, for a game that was bungled on release, that's pretty good.  And heck, really didn't like MGS3's gameplay, and hated MGS2's story.
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« Reply #19 on: November 29, 2007, 08:58:46 PM »

Quote from: Turtle on November 29, 2007, 08:55:00 PM

Actually, someone posted sales numbers that MGS3 still sold multiple millions of units, for a game that was bungled on release, that's pretty good.  And heck, really didn't like MGS3's gameplay, and hated MGS2's story.

But it's still half of what MGS2 did. 

I'm not arguing that it isn't a strong franchise.  A lot of series would kill for their sales.  But it isn't on the same level of a Halo or GTA and anyone trying to put across like it is, including Konami, are setting themselves up for disappointment.

Basically, if the PS3 lives or dies on the success of MGS4, then it's already dead. 
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« Reply #20 on: November 29, 2007, 08:59:06 PM »

Quote from: Turtle on November 29, 2007, 08:55:00 PM

Actually, someone posted sales numbers that MGS3 still sold multiple millions of units, for a game that was bungled on release, that's pretty good.  And heck, really didn't like MGS3's gameplay, and hated MGS2's story.

It sold several million on a platform that has well more than MGS3's sales.  It's going to be interesting to see if it can pull a million on the PS3.
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« Reply #21 on: November 29, 2007, 09:04:59 PM »

Unless things drastically chance I think its going to take far more than a month to sell a million, even worldwide. And I haven't ever loved any of the games either.
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« Reply #22 on: November 29, 2007, 09:08:57 PM »

Quote from: QP on November 29, 2007, 06:13:26 PM

Am I the only one who absolutely hated the MGS games?
I keep playing 'em (along with GTA and FF) hoping I'll recognize the brilliance that everyone else keeps talking about... I'm still not finding it smile
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« Reply #23 on: November 29, 2007, 09:11:22 PM »

Quote from: Laner on November 29, 2007, 09:08:57 PM

I keep playing 'em (along with GTA and FF) hoping I'll recognize the brilliance that everyone else keeps talking about... I'm still not finding it smile

Why would you keep torturing yourself in that way???
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« Reply #24 on: November 29, 2007, 09:22:21 PM »

Because they're so freakin' great!  Or so I've been told slywink
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« Reply #25 on: November 29, 2007, 10:44:13 PM »

It's a misquote or just complete bullshit.  A million copies is roughly $60 mil in revenue.  Even if half of that gets taken out of hand, you're still talking a day one take of $30 mil.  If they're spending more than that to make a game on any platform, they should be prepared for tears no matter what they do.  As far as I'm concerned, a $30 mil budget these days still represents ridiculous excess and/or incompetence.
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« Reply #26 on: November 29, 2007, 10:46:10 PM »

Quote from: kathode on November 29, 2007, 10:44:13 PM

It's a misquote or just complete bullshit.  A million copies is roughly $60 mil in revenue.  Even if half of that gets taken out of hand, you're still talking a day one take of $30 mil.  If they're spending more than that to make a game on any platform, they should be prepared for tears no matter what they do.  As far as I'm concerned, a $30 mil budget these days still represents ridiculous excess or incompetence.

It's not 60 million in revenue for Konami.  That revenue has to be split between Konami, Sony and many others.
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« Reply #27 on: November 29, 2007, 10:52:37 PM »

Quote from: rickfc on November 29, 2007, 10:46:10 PM

Quote from: kathode on November 29, 2007, 10:44:13 PM

It's a misquote or just complete bullshit.  A million copies is roughly $60 mil in revenue.  Even if half of that gets taken out of hand, you're still talking a day one take of $30 mil.  If they're spending more than that to make a game on any platform, they should be prepared for tears no matter what they do.  As far as I'm concerned, a $30 mil budget these days still represents ridiculous excess or incompetence.

It's not 60 million in revenue for Konami.  That revenue has to be split between Konami, Sony and many others.

Which I accounted for when I split it in half, which I felt was conservative.  A first party developer for a major title in a proven franchise should be able to negotiate even better than a 50% royalty rate. 
Eh, I guess it's more second-party, or high profile 3rd party isn't it?  Well I still feel 50% is a good estimate.
« Last Edit: November 29, 2007, 10:58:07 PM by kathode » Logged
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« Reply #28 on: November 29, 2007, 11:25:58 PM »

Quote from: Turtle on November 29, 2007, 07:55:55 PM

Okay, just stop it with the MGS4 multiplatform stuff.  PS3 isn't getting Mass Effect, BioShock, or Alan Wake, but we do get MGS4 and Final Fantasy exclusive, period.  That is just the way it is.

Why stop it? If MGS4 has such a high production to where it needs incredible sales just to cover it (not even counting profit), it wouldn't be far-fetched to believe a 360 version would show up to generate extra revenue, same with Final Fantasy. We already know Sony is throwing money at Konami and Square to keep these franchises exclusive, but if that plus revenue isn't enough....
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« Reply #29 on: November 29, 2007, 11:28:15 PM »

I'm going to replay MGS3 just to spite all you haters.
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« Reply #30 on: November 29, 2007, 11:35:52 PM »

Ah, okay then, I'll just keep posting on how Bioshock, Mass Effect, and Alan Wake are all coming to the PS3.

It's just as far fetched to believe that the PS3 won't be successful from these games, and that they won't drive enough sales so move the platform forward.  There's also the issue that Sony has likely paid for full exclusivity.

Secondly, many here have said these numbers are bull or misquoted to impact Sony negatively, as the game media is want to do these days.  Even Kathode, who has the most experience in game development here says the numbers are bunk.
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« Reply #31 on: November 29, 2007, 11:50:43 PM »

Quote from: Turtle on November 29, 2007, 11:35:52 PM

Ah, okay then, I'll just keep posting on how Bioshock, Mass Effect, and Alan Wake are all coming to the PS3.


You make it seem like anyone here would mind if that happened. I was fine with CoD4 and AC hitting 360 and PS3, I'm certainly fine with the likes of Bioshock or Mass Effect landing there as well. Hell, fix up ME and release it on PS3 and I'll buy it a second time. 
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« Reply #32 on: November 29, 2007, 11:52:01 PM »

Quote from: TheMissingLink on November 29, 2007, 11:28:15 PM

I'm going to replay MGS3 just to spite all you haters.

smile

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« Reply #33 on: November 30, 2007, 12:39:48 AM »

Dunno why some people keep trying to put the MGS series into the same league as Halo, GTA or FF in terms of mass market appeal when its not.
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« Reply #34 on: November 30, 2007, 12:45:05 AM »

Quote from: Jumangi on November 30, 2007, 12:39:48 AM

Dunno why some people keep trying to put the MGS series into the same league as Halo, GTA or FF in terms of mass market appeal when its not.

I think it's pretty close.  However, I still cannot figure out why.

gellar
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« Reply #35 on: November 30, 2007, 01:18:04 AM »

Quote from: Turtle on November 29, 2007, 11:35:52 PM

Ah, okay then, I'll just keep posting on how Bioshock, Mass Effect, and Alan Wake are all coming to the PS3.

I though Bioshock was already coming to the PS3.  That's what the Sony Defense Force site said.
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« Reply #36 on: November 30, 2007, 01:46:55 AM »

Quote from: gellar on November 30, 2007, 12:45:05 AM

Quote from: Jumangi on November 30, 2007, 12:39:48 AM

Dunno why some people keep trying to put the MGS series into the same league as Halo, GTA or FF in terms of mass market appeal when its not.

I think it's pretty close.  However, I still cannot figure out why.

gellar

It's not close at all IMHO.  Many people who don't know anything about gaming know about Halo, Madden, GTA, Final Fantasy, etc.  But most non-gamers wouldn't know Solid Snake from Snake Pliskin.

The decision to package the single and multiplayer portions as comletely seperate games isn't going to help things either.
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« Reply #37 on: November 30, 2007, 01:48:07 AM »

Quote from: Turtle on November 29, 2007, 07:55:55 PM

PS3 isn't getting Mass Effect, BioShock, or Alan Wake, but we do get MGS4 and Final Fantasy exclusive, period.  That is just the way it is.

We???

Do you work for Sony?
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« Reply #38 on: November 30, 2007, 01:50:19 AM »

Quote from: denoginizer on November 30, 2007, 01:46:55 AM

The decision to package the single and multiplayer portions as comletely seperate games isn't going to help things either.

Which speaks to the production costs this thing is probably rising too.
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« Reply #39 on: November 30, 2007, 02:12:44 AM »

Quote from: denoginizer on November 30, 2007, 01:46:55 AM

Quote from: gellar on November 30, 2007, 12:45:05 AM

Quote from: Jumangi on November 30, 2007, 12:39:48 AM

Dunno why some people keep trying to put the MGS series into the same league as Halo, GTA or FF in terms of mass market appeal when its not.

I think it's pretty close.  However, I still cannot figure out why.

gellar

It's not close at all IMHO.  Many people who don't know anything about gaming know about Halo, Madden, GTA, Final Fantasy, etc.  But most non-gamers wouldn't know Solid Snake from Snake Pliskin.

The decision to package the single and multiplayer portions as comletely seperate games isn't going to help things either.

Yeah but what are the sales figures like?  I always figured MGS sold a fuckton.

gellar
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