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Author Topic: Media Create Japan Sales 3/19-3/25  (Read 913 times)
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Tebunker
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« on: March 30, 2007, 01:45:37 AM »



http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=148502 is the source, damn sometimes GAF really is worth something slywink

I bring this up, because the PS3 had spiked two weeks ago in the Mid 40k range and the Wii had dropped to the Mid 50k, and well, you can see the last two weeks hardware sales in the actual gaf-thread.

What is scary in particular is that the PS3 has little coming to the Japanese market through June, the Wii has about double the software but nothing gang busters. However, this fall both systems will have some big hitters coming down the pike. I really think that the way things are trending that those Eastern Developed games that a lot of us loved on the PS2 may end up coming out on the Wii, which is great for a lot of folks. Hopefully RPG developers will get creative and really try some new things and different battle systems with the controllers.

One last thing to note, games in the top 50:

NDS - 36
PS2 - 6
WII - 4
PSP - 2
PS3 - 1
360 - 1

Was really surprised to see a 360 title in the top 50 in Japan. Also, the success of the DS makes me wonder why more of those titles aren't being scooped up for localization. I know some are very Japan-centric, but the DS library would only be that much better by bringing those games to the West.


« Last Edit: March 30, 2007, 01:49:08 AM by Tebunker » Logged

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« Reply #1 on: March 30, 2007, 02:16:44 AM »

Quote
really think that the way things are trending that those Eastern Developed games that a lot of us loved on the PS2 may end up coming out on the Wii, which is great for a lot of folks. Hopefully RPG developers will get creative and really try some new things and different battle systems with the controllers.

Umm...I think that might be great for a small subset of folks. Its already very clear that at least an enormous chunk of the Wii's success and sales is due to its appeal to non-mainstream gamers or even non-gamers. The Eastern developed quirky games, often RPGs don't cater to that market whatsoever. Not even a little. They probably will have poor sales in that segment of the Wii's player base. So, while that may be good for a smaller segment of hardcore gamers that are Wii owners, I think a lot of people would prefer that those games take advantage of true next gen hardware on the 360 or PS3 if possible, and I think it only makes good business sense if its clear that the Wii has a massive advantage in install base.
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« Reply #2 on: March 30, 2007, 02:24:37 AM »

Quote from: Tebunker on March 30, 2007, 01:45:37 AM



Love the picture. biggrin

That said, the DS and the Wii are doing so well in Japan it's almost scary. As Ron has said before - doesn't everybody in Japan already own a DS? smile

What's even scarier - if the DS keeps up in sales, it'll surpass the PS2 within the next few years. It's already passed the GBA in lifetime sales. Wow.
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« Reply #3 on: March 30, 2007, 12:11:59 PM »

Wait a minute. Is LTD = to lifetime?

So nearly 16 million DSes have been sold in Japan?  eek

Edit: Wait a minute two.

Only 20 million PS2s were sold in Japan?

16 million Dses in what 2.5 years?

20 millions PS2s in 5?

Zounds!
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« Reply #4 on: March 30, 2007, 12:36:44 PM »

Quote from: Calvin on March 30, 2007, 02:16:44 AM

Quote
really think that the way things are trending that those Eastern Developed games that a lot of us loved on the PS2 may end up coming out on the Wii, which is great for a lot of folks. Hopefully RPG developers will get creative and really try some new things and different battle systems with the controllers.

Umm...I think that might be great for a small subset of folks. Its already very clear that at least an enormous chunk of the Wii's success and sales is due to its appeal to non-mainstream gamers or even non-gamers. The Eastern developed quirky games, often RPGs don't cater to that market whatsoever. Not even a little. They probably will have poor sales in that segment of the Wii's player base. So, while that may be good for a smaller segment of hardcore gamers that are Wii owners, I think a lot of people would prefer that those games take advantage of true next gen hardware on the 360 or PS3 if possible, and I think it only makes good business sense if its clear that the Wii has a massive advantage in install base.

The whole point was that the Wii is on its way to having that massive advantage in install base.
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« Reply #5 on: March 30, 2007, 01:03:57 PM »

Quote from: Tebunker on March 30, 2007, 12:36:44 PM

Quote from: Calvin on March 30, 2007, 02:16:44 AM

Quote
really think that the way things are trending that those Eastern Developed games that a lot of us loved on the PS2 may end up coming out on the Wii, which is great for a lot of folks. Hopefully RPG developers will get creative and really try some new things and different battle systems with the controllers.

Umm...I think that might be great for a small subset of folks. Its already very clear that at least an enormous chunk of the Wii's success and sales is due to its appeal to non-mainstream gamers or even non-gamers. The Eastern developed quirky games, often RPGs don't cater to that market whatsoever. Not even a little. They probably will have poor sales in that segment of the Wii's player base. So, while that may be good for a smaller segment of hardcore gamers that are Wii owners, I think a lot of people would prefer that those games take advantage of true next gen hardware on the 360 or PS3 if possible, and I think it only makes good business sense if its clear that the Wii has a massive advantage in install base.

The whole point was that the Wii is on its way to having that massive advantage in install base.

In the west or in Japan? If you mean the west, you really presume that sales are going to continue in this volume? You are not at all concerned with the "fad" effect and the casual market drying up or backlash from enthusiasts? I think it is grossly optimistic to presume the Wii will have any appreciable advantage in install base over the 360 in the short term or the 360 and PS3 in the long term in North American and much of Europe. Perhaps eventually they might have more, but a massive advantage? I don't think that is going to happen for any console given the trends we are seeing-and without that install base my above point is all the more a concern.
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« Reply #6 on: March 30, 2007, 01:19:46 PM »

Quote from: Calvin on March 30, 2007, 01:03:57 PM

Quote from: Tebunker on March 30, 2007, 12:36:44 PM

Quote from: Calvin on March 30, 2007, 02:16:44 AM

Quote
really think that the way things are trending that those Eastern Developed games that a lot of us loved on the PS2 may end up coming out on the Wii, which is great for a lot of folks. Hopefully RPG developers will get creative and really try some new things and different battle systems with the controllers.

Umm...I think that might be great for a small subset of folks. Its already very clear that at least an enormous chunk of the Wii's success and sales is due to its appeal to non-mainstream gamers or even non-gamers. The Eastern developed quirky games, often RPGs don't cater to that market whatsoever. Not even a little. They probably will have poor sales in that segment of the Wii's player base. So, while that may be good for a smaller segment of hardcore gamers that are Wii owners, I think a lot of people would prefer that those games take advantage of true next gen hardware on the 360 or PS3 if possible, and I think it only makes good business sense if its clear that the Wii has a massive advantage in install base.

The whole point was that the Wii is on its way to having that massive advantage in install base.

In the west or in Japan? If you mean the west, you really presume that sales are going to continue in this volume? You are not at all concerned with the "fad" effect and the casual market drying up or backlash from enthusiasts? I think it is grossly optimistic to presume the Wii will have any appreciable advantage in install base over the 360 in the short term or the 360 and PS3 in the long term in North American and much of Europe. Perhaps eventually they might have more, but a massive advantage? I don't think that is going to happen for any console given the trends we are seeing-and without that install base my above point is all the more a concern.

Presumably he's talking about Japan since this is the subject of the thread as well as the the home to games from Easter devs and I tend to agree.  PS3 has stalled horribly in Japan, 360 is deader than a doornail, so there is little incentive to develop for either platform in that country, especially since dev costs will likely be a lot more in doing so. 
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« Reply #7 on: March 30, 2007, 01:23:45 PM »

Quote from: Kevin Grey on March 30, 2007, 01:19:46 PM

Quote from: Calvin on March 30, 2007, 01:03:57 PM

Quote from: Tebunker on March 30, 2007, 12:36:44 PM

Quote from: Calvin on March 30, 2007, 02:16:44 AM

Quote
really think that the way things are trending that those Eastern Developed games that a lot of us loved on the PS2 may end up coming out on the Wii, which is great for a lot of folks. Hopefully RPG developers will get creative and really try some new things and different battle systems with the controllers.

Umm...I think that might be great for a small subset of folks. Its already very clear that at least an enormous chunk of the Wii's success and sales is due to its appeal to non-mainstream gamers or even non-gamers. The Eastern developed quirky games, often RPGs don't cater to that market whatsoever. Not even a little. They probably will have poor sales in that segment of the Wii's player base. So, while that may be good for a smaller segment of hardcore gamers that are Wii owners, I think a lot of people would prefer that those games take advantage of true next gen hardware on the 360 or PS3 if possible, and I think it only makes good business sense if its clear that the Wii has a massive advantage in install base.

The whole point was that the Wii is on its way to having that massive advantage in install base.

In the west or in Japan? If you mean the west, you really presume that sales are going to continue in this volume? You are not at all concerned with the "fad" effect and the casual market drying up or backlash from enthusiasts? I think it is grossly optimistic to presume the Wii will have any appreciable advantage in install base over the 360 in the short term or the 360 and PS3 in the long term in North American and much of Europe. Perhaps eventually they might have more, but a massive advantage? I don't think that is going to happen for any console given the trends we are seeing-and without that install base my above point is all the more a concern.

Presumably he's talking about Japan since this is the subject of the thread as well as the the home to games from Easter devs and I tend to agree.  PS3 has stalled horribly in Japan, 360 is deader than a doornail, so there is little incentive to develop for either platform in that country, especially since dev costs will likely be a lot more in doing so. 

Well that was my confusion Kevin-the thread was about Japan, but I thought Bunk was sort of extrapolating the Japanese numbers into a general thought about how they would take those "Eastern Developed games that a lot of us loved on the PS2 may come out on the Wii"

I thought that meant he was talking about the transition of those games to the Western market, hence my confusion and disagreement. In terms of the Japanese market I think he may be absolutely correct-but that that might not translate well into sales in the West. I wasn't just trying to be difficult  icon_wink Does that make more sense?
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« Reply #8 on: March 30, 2007, 01:37:43 PM »

Yeah, but his point (I believe) is that we are only a niche market to this stuff- Japan is the primary market.  So if the Wii is a huge success in Japan, then a lot of these games are going to be developed for the Wii since it's Japan's biggest install base by far. 

Something like Ace Combat 6 being 360 exclusive kind of makes sense- Ace Combat is a series that sells better in the west than in Japan (plus Namco will probably make an upgraded port on PS3 and call it AC7 like they did with Ridge Racer).  But most RPGs and other smaller "niche-y" stuff typically sells more like 3:1 in favor of Japan so there isn't much financial incentive for those companies to bring those titles to 360 or PS3. 
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« Reply #9 on: March 30, 2007, 01:49:30 PM »

Quote from: Kevin Grey on March 30, 2007, 01:37:43 PM

But most RPGs and other smaller "niche-y" stuff typically sells more like 3:1 in favor of Japan so there isn't much financial incentive for those companies to bring those titles to 360 or PS3. 

Exactly. This for example is why the latest Dragon Quest game will be made on the DS. It's either that or the Wii at this point, and the DS has a LOT more units sold.

And ATB - yes, LTD is Lifetime To Date. YTD is Year to Date incase you didn't figure it out.
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« Reply #10 on: March 30, 2007, 01:56:43 PM »

Quote from: Kevin Grey on March 30, 2007, 01:37:43 PM

Yeah, but his point (I believe) is that we are only a niche market to this stuff- Japan is the primary market.  So if the Wii is a huge success in Japan, then a lot of these games are going to be developed for the Wii since it's Japan's biggest install base by far. 

Something like Ace Combat 6 being 360 exclusive kind of makes sense- Ace Combat is a series that sells better in the west than in Japan (plus Namco will probably make an upgraded port on PS3 and call it AC7 like they did with Ridge Racer).  But most RPGs and other smaller "niche-y" stuff typically sells more like 3:1 in favor of Japan so there isn't much financial incentive for those companies to bring those titles to 360 or PS3. 

OK that makes perfect sense and I understand that for Japan, but how does that make the most financial sense for Europe and NA-if they are the Japanese niche titles (the ones I still insist will appeal to the average, non hard-core, Wii owner the least), then why not spend the money for a quick and dirty PS3 or 360 port to take advantage of those users in NA as well-many of which might tend to be less casual?
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« Reply #11 on: March 30, 2007, 02:00:44 PM »

Quote from: Calvin on March 30, 2007, 01:56:43 PM

OK that makes perfect sense and I understand that for Japan, but how does that make the most financial sense for Europe and NA-if they are the Japanese niche titles (the ones I still insist will appeal to the average, non hard-core, Wii owner the least), then why not spend the money for a quick and dirty PS3 or 360 port to take advantage of those users in NA as well-many of which might tend to be less casual?

I think that if Wii sales do stall in NA and Europe and fail to give the Wii an install base advantage in those regions and the Jap developers decide they do care about sales outside of Japan then they probably will do quick and dirty ports (hopefully with graphical improvements). Though I am not sure how possible it is to do a "quick and dirty" port from Wii to either 360/PS3. In the short term I think they would be more inclined to port it to/from the PS2 and the Wii.
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« Reply #12 on: March 30, 2007, 02:14:36 PM »

Quote from: Calvin on March 30, 2007, 01:56:43 PM

Quote from: Kevin Grey on March 30, 2007, 01:37:43 PM

Yeah, but his point (I believe) is that we are only a niche market to this stuff- Japan is the primary market.  So if the Wii is a huge success in Japan, then a lot of these games are going to be developed for the Wii since it's Japan's biggest install base by far. 

Something like Ace Combat 6 being 360 exclusive kind of makes sense- Ace Combat is a series that sells better in the west than in Japan (plus Namco will probably make an upgraded port on PS3 and call it AC7 like they did with Ridge Racer).  But most RPGs and other smaller "niche-y" stuff typically sells more like 3:1 in favor of Japan so there isn't much financial incentive for those companies to bring those titles to 360 or PS3. 

OK that makes perfect sense and I understand that for Japan, but how does that make the most financial sense for Europe and NA-if they are the Japanese niche titles (the ones I still insist will appeal to the average, non hard-core, Wii owner the least), then why not spend the money for a quick and dirty PS3 or 360 port to take advantage of those users in NA as well-many of which might tend to be less casual?

The problem is that if you release a game on PS3/360 with art assets and engine designed for Wii then you're going to get raked over the coals for it. 

The financials behind localization for these titles are very tight.  A lot of games never get localized and a lot of localizations get pawned off on other publishers willing to take the risk.  Microsoft published Enchanted Arms in Japan but it was Ubisoft who brought it to the US.  Namco published Baten Kaitos Origins in Japan but it was Nintendo of America that brought it here.  Namco removes half the voice acting from the Tales series when and if they come over.  Square-Enix didn't even bother porting that absolutely amazing looking Front Mission 5.  Companies like Atlus, XSeed, and defunct Working Designs' have entire businesses devoted to localizing titles that their original publishers didn't feel were worth the effort. 

When you're only going to sell 100-200k outside of Japan no matter what, the financials usually don't justify either heavily sprucing up the game for a more powerful console or investing in multi-platform development from the get go.  Our ability to get these games is contingent upon being able to do the port as cheaply as possible.   
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« Reply #13 on: March 30, 2007, 02:21:33 PM »

wow.... NiM$ indeed!  36 DS titles out of 50 in the..er... top 50? very impressive.
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Tebunker
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« Reply #14 on: March 30, 2007, 02:35:29 PM »

Quote from: Kevin Grey on March 30, 2007, 02:14:36 PM

Quote from: Calvin on March 30, 2007, 01:56:43 PM

Quote from: Kevin Grey on March 30, 2007, 01:37:43 PM

Yeah, but his point (I believe) is that we are only a niche market to this stuff- Japan is the primary market.  So if the Wii is a huge success in Japan, then a lot of these games are going to be developed for the Wii since it's Japan's biggest install base by far. 

Something like Ace Combat 6 being 360 exclusive kind of makes sense- Ace Combat is a series that sells better in the west than in Japan (plus Namco will probably make an upgraded port on PS3 and call it AC7 like they did with Ridge Racer).  But most RPGs and other smaller "niche-y" stuff typically sells more like 3:1 in favor of Japan so there isn't much financial incentive for those companies to bring those titles to 360 or PS3. 

OK that makes perfect sense and I understand that for Japan, but how does that make the most financial sense for Europe and NA-if they are the Japanese niche titles (the ones I still insist will appeal to the average, non hard-core, Wii owner the least), then why not spend the money for a quick and dirty PS3 or 360 port to take advantage of those users in NA as well-many of which might tend to be less casual?

The problem is that if you release a game on PS3/360 with art assets and engine designed for Wii then you're going to get raked over the coals for it. 

The financials behind localization for these titles are very tight.  A lot of games never get localized and a lot of localizations get pawned off on other publishers willing to take the risk.  Microsoft published Enchanted Arms in Japan but it was Ubisoft who brought it to the US.  Namco published Baten Kaitos Origins in Japan but it was Nintendo of America that brought it here.  Namco removes half the voice acting from the Tales series when and if they come over.  Square-Enix didn't even bother porting that absolutely amazing looking Front Mission 5.  Companies like Atlus, XSeed, and defunct Working Designs' have entire businesses devoted to localizing titles that their original publishers didn't feel were worth the effort. 

When you're only going to sell 100-200k outside of Japan no matter what, the financials usually don't justify either heavily sprucing up the game for a more powerful console or investing in multi-platform development from the get go.  Our ability to get these games is contingent upon being able to do the port as cheaply as possible.   

You know too much about the industry, are you hiding something from us? You pretty nailed what I was talking about, even if the Wii is just second here and in Europe but gangbusters in Japan it will get a lot of those niche-y type games, and publishers will bring them over to western territories. I really don't think it's out of the question to expect the Wii to sell in the 20 million unit range in the US alone. The Gamecube did 13 million in the US, and all signs point to the Wii making the cube look stupid sales-wise. Heck, the Wii will surpass the the Cube in Japan by September! Eitherway it is a good thing for all of us. 3 healthy systems only means more games, more opportunities for new developers, and hopefully better games. Seeing the market as it is going I am excited to see who the next Level 5 will be or where the next Retro studios will come out of.
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« Reply #15 on: March 30, 2007, 03:05:56 PM »

If I were a game publisher I would absolutely be looking to develop games for the PS2/Wii right now.  There is defiantly a lot of money to be made making games for the PS2, bolting on some Wii controls and pushing it out the door.
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« Reply #16 on: March 30, 2007, 04:12:28 PM »

Wow, the about 20% of Japan owns a DS.
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