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Author Topic: Massive interest in PS3/Wii this holiday season  (Read 2425 times)
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Hetz
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« on: October 11, 2006, 06:16:31 PM »

Good news for Jblank and co that want to unload these on EBay. 400,000 units compared to 8.9 million is going to = $$$

http://www.next-gen.biz/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=3978&Itemid=2

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According to the study by Los Angeles based Interpret, 8.9 million U.S consumers ‘are prepared’ to pay full price ($500 or $600) for the PlayStation 3 this fall, compared to 5.7 million consumers who are willing to buy Wii at $250 and just 800,000 people who are willing to pay full price for Xbox 360 ($300 to $400).

 :icon_eek:
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« Reply #1 on: October 11, 2006, 06:20:48 PM »

So by their numbers, Nintendo should sell out completely, Sony will look like gods because they can sell at their ridiculous price and MS can't get as much love as they deserve.. weird
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« Reply #2 on: October 11, 2006, 06:24:39 PM »

Yowzers! What did I tell you guys? Don't discount the Playstation name. Its name alone guarantees it will sell.

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« Reply #3 on: October 11, 2006, 06:39:57 PM »

Hmm. I guess I'll be getting that Bugatti Veyron after all. Huzzah!
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« Reply #4 on: October 11, 2006, 07:32:29 PM »

Quote from: Hetz on October 11, 2006, 06:16:31 PM

According to the study by Los Angeles based Interpret, 8.9 million U.S consumers ‘are prepared’ to pay full price ($500 or $600) for the PlayStation 3 this fall, compared to 5.7 million consumers who are willing to buy Wii at $250 and just 800,000 people who are willing to pay full price for Xbox 360 ($300 to $400).

What that you didn't post was the important part:

Quote
This research, released first to Next Generation, was derived from a sample of 2,000 interviews Interpret conducted online, weighted to 2004 Census data of 13 to 54 year-olds in the U.S.

The sample is WAY too small to work out numbers in the millions. And the other question - did they tell anybody the prices of the consoles (for those who didn't know them) as they called them? Note the lack of distinction what exactly 'full price' is on a PS3.

Completely worthless data, IMHO.
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« Reply #5 on: October 11, 2006, 07:38:18 PM »

Quote from: Destructor on October 11, 2006, 07:32:29 PM

The sample is WAY too small to work out numbers in the millions.

Is it?  Not to say the poll isn't horribly skewed in some other way, but a rough calculation shows the error from that sample size is only about 2.3%. 
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« Reply #6 on: October 11, 2006, 07:38:22 PM »

Quote from: jblank on October 11, 2006, 06:24:39 PM

Yowzers! What did I tell you guys? Don't discount the Playstation name. Its name alone guarantees it will sell.

I said the same thing, the PS3 haters are sooo wrong.
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« Reply #7 on: October 11, 2006, 07:39:19 PM »

I thought Hetz was only a Bethesda shill?
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« Reply #8 on: October 11, 2006, 07:46:02 PM »

some crazy people out there,and because of this,it wont stop sony putting a high price on their next console...hey what the hell,why not higher the price of the ps3 right now
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« Reply #9 on: October 11, 2006, 07:54:32 PM »

Quote from: -Lord Ebonstone- on October 11, 2006, 07:39:19 PM

I thought Hetz was only a Bethesda shill?

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« Reply #10 on: October 11, 2006, 07:57:45 PM »

Quote from: jblank on October 11, 2006, 06:24:39 PM

Yowzers! What did I tell you guys? Don't discount the Playstation name. Its name alone guarantees it will sell.


Yeah, 'cause the PSP rocked the market, right?
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« Reply #11 on: October 11, 2006, 08:12:45 PM »

I dont put much value in this poll, also you can ask anybody you want if they are going to buy a PS3 but the real test is when they spend real money on the console and not some stupid internet poll.

I think the PS3 might still win but it will be very close race this time and they wont have a huge market share like before. I dont want the PS3 to fail miserably because I want next gen HD japanese RPG's and I cant really get many of those on 360 but I dont like sony and definately dont want them to dominate again.


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« Reply #12 on: October 11, 2006, 08:17:48 PM »

Its on the Internet so it must be true.
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Ralph-Wiggum
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« Reply #13 on: October 11, 2006, 08:41:25 PM »

Quote from: -Lord Ebonstone- on October 11, 2006, 07:57:45 PM

Quote from: jblank on October 11, 2006, 06:24:39 PM

Yowzers! What did I tell you guys? Don't discount the Playstation name. Its name alone guarantees it will sell.


Yeah, 'cause the PSP rocked the market, right?

Considering that it cost $250 and didn't have any great games, I think the PSP did pretty damn well.
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« Reply #14 on: October 12, 2006, 12:29:02 AM »

Quote from: -Lord Ebonstone- on October 11, 2006, 07:57:45 PM

Quote from: jblank on October 11, 2006, 06:24:39 PM

Yowzers! What did I tell you guys? Don't discount the Playstation name. Its name alone guarantees it will sell.


Yeah, 'cause the PSP rocked the market, right?

And Microsoft, and Sony, and Phantom, and.......   Tongue
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« Reply #15 on: October 12, 2006, 02:26:17 AM »

Quote from: Jumangi on October 11, 2006, 08:17:48 PM

Its on the Internet so it must be true.

Actually, the fact that it was conducted over the net concerns me more than the sample size. I'm wondering if they dealt with the selection bias inherent in conducting a poll online. I'm also wondering if the respondents were chosen randomly somehow. More likely they were self-selected (i.e. they voluntered to participate, perhaps for a reward of some kind, rather than having been chosen then consenting) which introduces other biases.

To put it simply, a sample drawn from respondents over the internet isn't necessarily generalizable to the US population at large. By the very fact they filled the poll out online, they have access to and knowledge of technology that many people don't have. It's kind of like doing a poll here and trying to generalize those figures to all gamers. This forum doesn't represent all gamers.
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« Reply #16 on: October 12, 2006, 03:15:19 AM »

Quote from: Misguided on October 12, 2006, 02:26:17 AM

This forum doesn't represent all gamers.

Only the ones that matter. unibrow
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« Reply #17 on: October 12, 2006, 03:21:57 AM »

Has it moved from Wii60 to PSThwii?
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« Reply #18 on: October 12, 2006, 03:32:02 AM »

This survey doesnt acurately represent the 360.  Since it is already released, of course the numbers of people that are going to buy it this fall is much smaller than those of the two consoles that havent been released yet.
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« Reply #19 on: October 12, 2006, 04:04:14 AM »

Quote from: Destructor on October 11, 2006, 07:32:29 PM

The sample is WAY too small to work out numbers in the millions. And the other question - did they tell anybody the prices of the consoles (for those who didn't know them) as they called them? Note the lack of distinction what exactly 'full price' is on a PS3.

Completely worthless data, IMHO.

Nah, 2000 is a pretty standard sample size for large-scale statistics.  In fact, it's on the large side.  The big election polls you hear about often use 1000 or less.  Check out the Wikipedia article on margin of error.

Edit: But yeah, conducting a poll over the internet is a bit odd.
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« Reply #20 on: October 12, 2006, 10:52:58 AM »

Quote from: kathode on October 12, 2006, 04:04:14 AM

Edit: But yeah, conducting a poll over the internet is a bit odd.

Not in and of itself, but then using census data to try and generalize a net sample to the general public is fishy.

I've gone over this before, but there's nothing wrong with collecting a sample you know is biased. It can still be representative of the group you want to study. In this case, though, it sets off the alarm bells.
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« Reply #21 on: October 12, 2006, 01:21:55 PM »

Quote from: -Lord Ebonstone- on October 11, 2006, 07:57:45 PM

Quote from: jblank on October 11, 2006, 06:24:39 PM

Yowzers! What did I tell you guys? Don't discount the Playstation name. Its name alone guarantees it will sell.


Yeah, 'cause the PSP rocked the market, right?

It's hardly a failure.

Look dude, we were/are talking about the PLAYSTATION 3, the PSP is irrelevent to this discussion and the previous discussion. Capice?
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« Reply #22 on: October 12, 2006, 01:55:06 PM »

Quote from: jblank on October 12, 2006, 01:21:55 PM

Quote from: -Lord Ebonstone- on October 11, 2006, 07:57:45 PM

Quote from: jblank on October 11, 2006, 06:24:39 PM

Yowzers! What did I tell you guys? Don't discount the Playstation name. Its name alone guarantees it will sell.


Yeah, 'cause the PSP rocked the market, right?

It's hardly a failure.

Look dude, we were/are talking about the PLAYSTATION 3, the PSP is irrelevent to this discussion and the previous discussion. Capice?

The Playstation Portable is irrelevant to the discussion of whether the word "Playstation" will make a system sell well?
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« Reply #23 on: October 12, 2006, 02:00:21 PM »

Quote from: wonderpug on October 12, 2006, 01:55:06 PM

Quote from: jblank on October 12, 2006, 01:21:55 PM

Quote from: -Lord Ebonstone- on October 11, 2006, 07:57:45 PM

Quote from: jblank on October 11, 2006, 06:24:39 PM

Yowzers! What did I tell you guys? Don't discount the Playstation name. Its name alone guarantees it will sell.


Yeah, 'cause the PSP rocked the market, right?

It's hardly a failure.

Look dude, we were/are talking about the PLAYSTATION 3, the PSP is irrelevent to this discussion and the previous discussion. Capice?

The Playstation Portable is irrelevant to the discussion of whether the word "Playstation" will make a system sell well?

Why is this hard to understand?  disgust

We had a discussion about the PS3 where people were doubting its viability because of the price. I said something to the effect that I wouldn't bet against it, or something like that, because that Playstation name still is king in the console world. The discussion was about CONSOLES and the Playstation name in CONSOLES. In the portable world, the name is NINTENDO, but we weren't talking about portables. Obviously in portables, its not that big of a deal, but we haven't been talking about portables have we?
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« Reply #24 on: October 12, 2006, 02:12:40 PM »

If Nintendo released a console (non portable) that was called the Gameboy 2, I'll bet it would have a lot of instant interest and support because of the Gameboy name.  If Microsoft released a gaming phone at the same time as the Nokia N-Gage, but named it the "Xbox Uplink" or something similar, I'll bet the phone would get a lot more interest and support because of the Xbox name.

So if you're discussing how much power the Playstation name has in selling systems, it is absolutely relevant to consider the effect it had on the Playstation Portable, even though it is a handheld system.
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« Reply #25 on: October 12, 2006, 02:21:48 PM »

Quote from: wonderpug on October 12, 2006, 02:12:40 PM

If Nintendo released a console (non portable) that was called the Gameboy 2, I'll bet it would have a lot of instant interest and support because of the Gameboy name.  If Microsoft released a gaming phone at the same time as the Nokia N-Gage, but named it the "Xbox Uplink" or something similar, I'll bet the phone would get a lot more interest and support because of the Xbox name.

So if you're discussing how much power the Playstation name has in selling systems, it is absolutely relevant to consider the effect it had on the Playstation Portable, even though it is a handheld system.

Not in this case. Besides, its more known as "PSP" than it is "Playstation Portable", so it doesn't really take advantage of the "Playstation" part of their brand very well. If you notice the marketing Sony is using, they are using that "Playstation" part of the name a lot more than they did with the PS2, in fact, someone wrote a good article that talks about why they have started to re-emphasize that, let me see if I can dig it up.
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« Reply #26 on: October 12, 2006, 03:43:37 PM »

my opinion for a guy who used to own a retail video game store.  Looking at the economy which I believe is in not to good a shape for middle class america ( the gamers) , and with two new system coming out, Nintendo is going to be the clear winner. Nintendo will be avialable, will have a good price piont, and it does has some good games coming out for it. 

 I see most consumers looking to buy a next gen system, looking at the non existent PS3, looking at the ridiculous ebay prices, and then asking themselves and/or their kids, " what is wrong with this new Wii or that xbox360?" The answer is of course "nothing"

You guy think the ps3 price piont is too high at 600 and I agree, that is 3DO territory, ask Hawkins about that. So if 600 is too high, 1200 is out of the question because now there are options.  In the 360 fiasco, there were no options.  Big difference.

 So will sony sell their 400k amount, certainly, will people make a killing on ebay, I really really doubt it.
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« Reply #27 on: October 12, 2006, 03:59:01 PM »

TC people are ALREADY making a killing on ebay. Buddy of mine on another forum put his preorder on there and the auction ended this morning at a little over $1300.00 and he already has the money. Thats what, about a 200% profit? In my book thats a killing. Hell, I will be happy with getting 900 bucks, anything over 1K is awesome.
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« Reply #28 on: October 12, 2006, 04:10:57 PM »

There was a blurb on Attack of the Show last night that E-Bay is pulling PS3 presell auctions and suspending accounts.  Since people can't actually deliver the item with 30 days, it's against the Terms of Service and therefore not a valid auction.  That's a pretty clever way to combat presell sales, but I wonder how effective it will ultimately be.
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« Reply #29 on: October 12, 2006, 04:31:05 PM »

because that Playstation name still is king in the console world.

yeah but so was Atari, Intellivision, Colecovision, Nintendo, Sega,  sorry one bad lauch, one misstep and you can lose your whole market share in less than a year or 2.

Sony IMHO, overstepped here, the manufacturing hardware has not come down in price, they are a year behind the first next gen, they are losing 150 or so bucks on every unit they sell, it certainly seems software and titles are running late.  We have seen this all before, this is how the big fall, and the competitors rise.

Again I am a grown man, faboi stuff is silly, I can get any and all the systems I want, I am just looking from a business perspective, to me I've seen this all before, they are classic mistakes made over and over by a company over reaching.

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« Reply #30 on: October 12, 2006, 04:38:02 PM »

Quote from: jblank on October 12, 2006, 03:59:01 PM

TC people are ALREADY making a killing on ebay. Buddy of mine on another forum put his preorder on there and the auction ended this morning at a little over $1300.00 and he already has the money. Thats what, about a 200% profit? In my book thats a killing. Hell, I will be happy with getting 900 bucks, anything over 1K is awesome.

Already has the money? Good lord. Make sure he pulls it out of Paypal incase the buyer goes nuts for whatever reason.
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« Reply #31 on: October 12, 2006, 04:40:16 PM »

Quote from: Gratch on October 12, 2006, 04:10:57 PM

There was a blurb on Attack of the Show last night that E-Bay is pulling PS3 presell auctions and suspending accounts.  Since people can't actually deliver the item with 30 days, it's against the Terms of Service and therefore not a valid auction.  That's a pretty clever way to combat presell sales, but I wonder how effective it will ultimately be.

I saw that to, but Jeff got his through. Regardless of that, I was gonna wait anyway, because release day is gonna be wild on there.
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« Reply #32 on: October 12, 2006, 04:50:27 PM »

Quote from: Destructor on October 12, 2006, 04:38:02 PM

Quote from: jblank on October 12, 2006, 03:59:01 PM

TC people are ALREADY making a killing on ebay. Buddy of mine on another forum put his preorder on there and the auction ended this morning at a little over $1300.00 and he already has the money. Thats what, about a 200% profit? In my book thats a killing. Hell, I will be happy with getting 900 bucks, anything over 1K is awesome.

Already has the money? Good lord. Make sure he pulls it out of Paypal incase the buyer goes nuts for whatever reason.

I asked him about that because I didn't think any sane person would pay NOW, when the consoles haven't even been released, and won't be for another 30+ days, but he said he paid him immediately and just asked him to email him a scanned copy of the receipt. All that did was make me salivate more over listing mine early, but I can't believe the frenzy for these things will be any less on release day, and then I can take nice pictures and dress up the auction a bit more.
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« Reply #33 on: October 12, 2006, 05:54:36 PM »

Quote from: TC Weidner on October 12, 2006, 04:31:05 PM

Sony IMHO, overstepped here, the manufacturing hardware has not come down in price, they are a year behind the first next gen, they are losing 150 or so bucks on every unit they sell, it certainly seems software and titles are running late.  We have seen this all before, this is how the big fall, and the competitors rise.

Outside of pricing concerns we saw it all with the PS2 launch.  And I think Sony is doing a helluva lot better with software lineup for launch and during the first year then they did last time.  Not saying they are infallible at all and they certainly are in for a big fight, but I don't think generations are decided on the basis of launch. 
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« Reply #34 on: October 12, 2006, 08:54:49 PM »

Quote from: jblank on October 12, 2006, 02:00:21 PM

The Playstation Portable is irrelevant to the discussion of whether the word "Playstation" will make a system sell well?


Why is this hard to understand?  disgust

I think using the PSP as an example if very relavent. As has been said the high price of the PSP(for a handheld) is valid. It goes to the argument that regardless of what you stuff into a system, if the price is too high it could hurt sales.
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« Reply #35 on: October 12, 2006, 08:58:21 PM »

Quote from: Jumangi on October 12, 2006, 08:54:49 PM

Quote from: jblank on October 12, 2006, 02:00:21 PM

The Playstation Portable is irrelevant to the discussion of whether the word "Playstation" will make a system sell well?


Why is this hard to understand?  disgust

I think using the PSP as an example if very relavent. As has been said the high price of the PSP(for a handheld) is valid. It goes to the argument that regardless of what you stuff into a system, if the price is too high it could hurt sales.

Well. that is your opinion and you are welcome to it, but in THIS case at least, amazingly, it seems the high price isn't an obstacle thus far, and if this excitement to get one, like this poll talks about, is true, then it means the Playstation brand name, is arguably as powerful as its ever been. I still say its apples and oranges because the console world is different than the handheld world.
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« Reply #36 on: October 12, 2006, 09:07:54 PM »

Quote
Besides, its more known as "PSP" than it is "Playstation Portable",
So then the 'Playstation' name means nothing for the 'PS2' or 'PS3' either, as both the Playstation 2 and Playstation 3 are known by their abbreviations in the same manner.

Quote
Well. that is your opinion and you are welcome to it, but in THIS case at least, amazingly, it seems the high price isn't an obstacle thus far, and if this excitement to get one, like this poll talks about, is true, then it means the Playstation brand name, is arguably as powerful as its ever been. I still say its apples and oranges because the console world is different than the handheld world.
The high price is never an issue for early technology adapters.  They will pay a lot of money for a new technology.  The big test will be when there are plenty of PS3's (or should I say Playstation 3s?).  Will the average gamer pay $600 for a console, twice that of the 360 and Wii?      Will normal parents buy it for their kids?  (Those parents that aren't extremely wealthy or feel intense guilt.)
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« Reply #37 on: October 12, 2006, 10:31:55 PM »

Quote from: Scott on October 12, 2006, 09:07:54 PM

Quote
Besides, its more known as "PSP" than it is "Playstation Portable",
So then the 'Playstation' name means nothing for the 'PS2' or 'PS3' either, as both the Playstation 2 and Playstation 3 are known by their abbreviations in the same manner.

Quote
Well. that is your opinion and you are welcome to it, but in THIS case at least, amazingly, it seems the high price isn't an obstacle thus far, and if this excitement to get one, like this poll talks about, is true, then it means the Playstation brand name, is arguably as powerful as its ever been. I still say its apples and oranges because the console world is different than the handheld world.
The high price is never an issue for early technology adapters.  They will pay a lot of money for a new technology.  The big test will be when there are plenty of PS3's (or should I say Playstation 3s?).  Will the average gamer pay $600 for a console, twice that of the 360 and Wii?      Will normal parents buy it for their kids?  (Those parents that aren't extremely wealthy or feel intense guilt.)

Did you miss the part where I said the marketing for the PS3 is using the PLAYSTATION name more? Like I said, there was an article that mentioned why they were doing it, but I can't find it now (didn't save the link), but they talked about emphasizing the Playstation part of the name more.

All indictations are they will pay that, amazingly. I was a skeptic myself (go back and read my posts on it), but when it looked like it was gonna be hot, I jumped on it, something I wouldn't have even dreamed of if it looked like it was gonna be a system nobody wanted. Right now, while I don't see it reaching PS2 saturation, I think it will still be extremely popular, even after the early adopter rush.
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Misguided
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« Reply #38 on: October 12, 2006, 10:58:33 PM »

I think the PSP is relevant, but the conclusion I draw from that is different.

Is the DS beating the PSP? Yes.
But look at it this way:

What was Nintendo's percentage of handheld marketshare prior to introduction of the PSP?
What is their percentage since the introduction of the PSP?
I've got to think Sony has put a pretty decent dent in those numbers, and just because the PSP isn't the clear "winnah" doesn't mean that it isn't a success. ESPECIALLY given that the development for the device (PSP) has been kind of lackluster, with few titles that really seem like they were made from the ground up just for the PSP.

If you think the PS3 is tooe xpensive, then I think you aren't Sony's target market. The problem is I think Sony's target market is smaller than they believe.
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« Reply #39 on: October 12, 2006, 11:54:19 PM »

Quote from: Misguided on October 12, 2006, 10:58:33 PM

I think the PSP is relevant, but the conclusion I draw from that is different.

Is the DS beating the PSP? Yes.
But look at it this way:

What was Nintendo's percentage of handheld marketshare prior to introduction of the PSP?
What is their percentage since the introduction of the PSP?
I've got to think Sony has put a pretty decent dent in those numbers, and just because the PSP isn't the clear "winnah" doesn't mean that it isn't a success. ESPECIALLY given that the development for the device (PSP) has been kind of lackluster, with few titles that really seem like they were made from the ground up just for the PSP.


I guess that's a logical conclusion when N used to have 100% and they now have just 98.9%.

So indeed PSP has had...an impact.

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