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Author Topic: How Long Until the Next Gen?  (Read 1363 times)
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ATB
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« on: February 07, 2009, 09:13:26 PM »

I just rebought a 360 (Jasper version, after mine conked out for the final time <no RROD this time, not paying 100.00 to repair it>) and daggon it if I'm not addicted to playing games from the HD.  Even though the Jasper is quieter, I like not having to have the DVD drive spin the whole time and put a load on the components.

That said, I'm now toying with the idea of getting a 120 gb HDD for it (somebody stop me!).

But, realistically, how long until MS kicks the 360 to the curb like they did XB1? My hope is that it's not too long as it seems like this generation is just starting to cook.

Thoughts?
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« Reply #1 on: February 07, 2009, 09:50:39 PM »

Earliest will be 2011, and possibly not until 2012. With Sony seemingly determined to milk the PS3 for all its worth, we could see it pushed out further.

There's not really a lot of pressure for any of the console makers (aside from Sony, who seems reluctant to do so), to rush a new console to market. Nintendo is enjoying a healthy lead with the Wii, and I think Microsoft is content to play second fiddle as long as they remain ahead of Sony.

The economy is another factor. I doubt any of these companies are ready to start pouring money into another console when they're just starting to make up the losses on the current gen.

It's really tough to say because this generation is completely different from any generation that has come before, but I'd err on the side of "later rather than sooner."
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« Reply #2 on: February 07, 2009, 10:42:34 PM »

Yeah I'd say another three years at least.  Seems safe enough to go out and buy one of M$'s ridiculously overpriced hard drives.
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« Reply #3 on: February 07, 2009, 10:46:16 PM »

its already 4 years this year(which is how long the first xbox was out for)..but i think even if the next gen console does come out,i feel that this time MS will support the 360 for longer,even after the 360 II is out,i think is will be down to the gamercards and achievements,LIVE etc,they will definetly carry over..and therefor still working on both machines...and the way Backwards compatible was a so-so success on the 360(and seemed a lot of hard work),they may just do away with 360 games on the new machine and keep the 360 going (kinda like how SONY have done )

and yes,the HDD is definetly worth it(in the end)
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« Reply #4 on: February 07, 2009, 10:50:32 PM »

Quote from: SensuousLettuce on February 07, 2009, 09:13:26 PM

But, realistically, how long until MS kicks the 360 to the curb like they did XB1? My hope is that it's not too long as it seems like this generation is just starting to cook.

I doubt we'll see the 360 dropped as suddenly as the Xbox 1 was; since the HD isn't mandatory and Microsoft owns the rights to all of the 360's parts this time around - both of which kept the first Xbox from becoming particularly profitable - they don't have the same incentive to sweep the predecessor under the rug and start fresh like they did last time.
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« Reply #5 on: February 07, 2009, 11:30:48 PM »

before the economy tanked everywhere I was pinning on mid 2011 with hints possibly at this year's E3 from MS only. Sony won't be in the next gen for quite some time. And I honestly couldn't give 2 shits about nintendo outside their DS.

I think with the economy it's going to be delayed a year or so from MS. even if their system was set on launching in a year and half no one wants to hear that their current system is already out dated. plus it'll slow their sales way down. so no go there right now. we all know sony is hurting really, really bad. so i'd be surprised to see them in 2012 with a new ps. I just hope all these SKUs go away. 2 at the most and a HDD in every damn console FFS.
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« Reply #6 on: February 08, 2009, 12:20:21 AM »

I wouldn't rule out MS putting out the 720 at the end of 2010. Who knows what Nintendo will do or when they'll do it.  Sony is talking a lot about their 10 year span, but I think they really need to get something out sooner than later. I would say maybe end of 2010 for the next X-Box, more likely 2011 for all 3. Economic woes or not, I would be shocked if all 3 companies aren't already pouring significant dough into R&D for their next systems.
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« Reply #7 on: February 08, 2009, 12:25:31 AM »

2011 for Sony?  I thought the PS3 was a 10-year machine!
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« Reply #8 on: February 08, 2009, 12:56:20 AM »

Quote from: pr0ner on February 08, 2009, 12:25:31 AM

2011 for Sony?  I thought the PS3 was a 10-year machine!

well, the PS2 came out in 2000, and the PS3 in 2006, and the PS2 is still going 2 years after the PS3 release, so if they support the PS3 the same way it'd be close to 10 years.
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« Reply #9 on: February 08, 2009, 06:38:45 AM »

It's going to be a pretty long console generation.  You have to have some kind of wow factor to get people to drop $400, and I don't think it's going to be increased graphics next time around.  Look at Gears, look at Killzone.  The games we have now look pretty amazing.  TVs max out at 1080p, and given that the market penetration of just that is still low, you can expect that a console's max resolution is as good as capped for a solid 10 years or so.  So basically more graphics horsepower is just going to end up throwing more stuff on the screen.  Which will look good, but not good enough to get anyone to drop $400 anytime soon, and probably not even in 2012.  Notwithstanding the fact that to get much more powerful we'll have to start building machines that look like small refridgerators and sound like vacuum cleaners. 

At this point I think MS and Sony are smart enough to realize that just tossing another set of 360++ or PS3++ machines onto the shelves is only going to sink them further.  There has to be some Big Idea that the next round is formed around, similar to the Wii.  I don't know what it is yet, but I'll bet that native 3d and digital downloads factor in in a major way (though I guarantee all major games will still be available in a physical format).  Rest assured if someone thought they had a killer product, they would shove it out.  But what is clearly not a killer product is an Xbox 720 in 2010 with ten more shader passes at its disposal.  No one's going to buy it, and I can't imagine anyone would develop for it.
« Last Edit: February 08, 2009, 06:46:43 AM by kathode » Logged
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« Reply #10 on: February 08, 2009, 11:36:24 AM »

PS2 sales also show that there are a HELL of a lot of people who are still happy with LAST gen, never mind the current gen.  So if you can't count on those people to even invest in the current now 3 year old generation then how are you going to get them to invest in the next gen?  I think last gen's consoles got obsolete pretty darned fast (graphics wise) but the 360 is more than holding it's own still.
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« Reply #11 on: February 08, 2009, 11:49:29 AM »

Quote from: kathode on February 08, 2009, 06:38:45 AM


At this point I think MS and Sony are smart enough to realize that just tossing another set of 360++ or PS3++ machines onto the shelves is only going to sink them further.  There has to be some Big Idea that the next round is formed around, similar to the Wii.  I don't know what it is yet, but I'll bet that native 3d and digital downloads factor in in a major way (though I guarantee all major games will still be available in a physical format).  Rest assured if someone thought they had a killer product, they would shove it out.  But what is clearly not a killer product is an Xbox 720 in 2010 with ten more shader passes at its disposal.  No one's going to buy it, and I can't imagine anyone would develop for it.

i wont mind MS or SONY to adopt the Wii style controls,as long as they also stick to what they have now,so that we have a choice...its one of the main reasons Ninty have gone down in my book,because it feels like they just went for a totally new audience and those faithful to the gamecube were shoved aside(i played on the cube last week,and i am still impressed with that machine,especially weight and sizewise)...in the end,for me at least the style of play the Wii has, isnt to my liking,a few games can come along(resi 4,super paper mario),but they are far and few between

i totally agree that right now a new gen isnt needed,i was still like 'woah' at the cutscenes in the HALO WARS demo,LOL..and with the PS3 starting to find its feet...the only thing i would suggest,if MS are getting ants in their pants..is for a handheld,but thats been discussed in another thread

and as i am starting to play Morrowind(and hopefully get in some Shenmue II),i suppose you could say that i am still happy with last gen as well
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« Reply #12 on: February 08, 2009, 01:45:26 PM »

They have to figure out how to make this generation not break first.

Could be a while.
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« Reply #13 on: February 08, 2009, 02:12:56 PM »

Agreed.  After this gen I am out out out.  When these break, I am done video gaming.  Period.  MS has left such a bad taste in my mouth I will never be their guinea pig again.  Never. 

But on topic, I predict 2012.  According the Mayans that is the end of the world anyway, so, I know that will be the end of this gen for sure.  icon_biggrin
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« Reply #14 on: February 08, 2009, 03:40:20 PM »

Quote from: kathode on February 08, 2009, 06:38:45 AM

It's going to be a pretty long console generation.  You have to have some kind of wow factor to get people to drop $400, and I don't think it's going to be increased graphics next time around. 

If MS and Sony haven't learned that their next systems have to enter retail at a price of $299 or less, then they will be crushed by Nintendo again.
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« Reply #15 on: February 08, 2009, 08:44:02 PM »

Quote from: JCC on February 08, 2009, 03:40:20 PM

Quote from: kathode on February 08, 2009, 06:38:45 AM

It's going to be a pretty long console generation.  You have to have some kind of wow factor to get people to drop $400, and I don't think it's going to be increased graphics next time around. 

If MS and Sony haven't learned that their next systems have to enter retail at a price of $299 or less, then they will be crushed by Nintendo again.

Except that I bet a larger proportion of Wiis are sitting around unused than 360s or PS3s...wonder if people would make the same 'mistake' again.

Anyway, the 120 gig drive is boughten and the data transfer is commencing.
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« Reply #16 on: February 08, 2009, 08:52:04 PM »

Quote from: SensuousLettuce on February 08, 2009, 08:44:02 PM

Except that I bet a larger proportion of Wiis are sitting around unused than 360s or PS3s...wonder if people would make the same 'mistake' again.

It's debatable but one thing that's not debatable is the fact that the rate of Wiis being sold is still very much insane.  If people think they're making a mistake buying them, the negative word-of-mouth doesn't seem to be getting around.
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« Reply #17 on: February 08, 2009, 09:35:24 PM »

Quote from: kathode on February 08, 2009, 08:52:04 PM

Quote from: SensuousLettuce on February 08, 2009, 08:44:02 PM

Except that I bet a larger proportion of Wiis are sitting around unused than 360s or PS3s...wonder if people would make the same 'mistake' again.

It's debatable but one thing that's not debatable is the fact that the rate of Wiis being sold is still very much insane.  If people think they're making a mistake buying them, the negative word-of-mouth doesn't seem to be getting around.

I couldn't agree more with what you're saying here, the whole notion that the Wii is a passing gimmick died some time ago. With the amount of people owning them, it's almost impossible for a non-console owner these days to not know someone who already owns one. And other than hardcore gamers -represented well here- how many people actually don't like their Wii's or complain about the lack of graphic fidelity in Wii Sports, Guitar Hero or Rockband? I know I sure haven't heard any and I work in an industry where there's a demographic where you'd expect to hear such things; but everyone seems happy.

I also agree with most of your comments in your earlier post:

Quote
You have to have some kind of wow factor to get people to drop $400, and I don't think it's going to be increased graphics next time around.  Look at Gears, look at Killzone.  The games we have now look pretty amazing.  TVs max out at 1080p, and given that the market penetration of just that is still low, you can expect that a console's max resolution is as good as capped for a solid 10 years or so.  So basically more graphics horsepower is just going to end up throwing more stuff on the screen.  Which will look good, but not good enough to get anyone to drop $400 anytime soon, and probably not even in 2012

I think last gen turned a corner in 3D graphics quality, to the point that many casual gamers would probably still be impressed with some of the Xbox games with better visual quality. This gen has just cemented that even more and consumers will be able to still take advantage of improvements when they finally move to HDTV's. Hell even a Wii owner will still get the improvements of progressive scan and widescreen. I agree that we're not going to see a big jump in HDTV resolutions as short a time frame that we saw with the EDTV - HDTV - HDTV1080p transition. I know Sony would like to see and think otherwise, but IMO there not going to be in a financial position to drive that like before.

This thread got off on the wrong foot IMO by assuming that MS will make the call when the next gen begins. Hate to say it, but it's the market leader that makes that call and with that in mind I can't see Nintendo not following their traditional 5 year window and launching in 2011. Whether MS or Sony will follow suit, or soon after, will depend on a number of factors; the state of the economy being one. 2011 will already have given the 360 a 6 year life cycle; 2 more than the Xbox1 had. I personally won't be surprised if MS launches their next system in 2011 and goes head-to-head with Big N, but I'd be very surprised if Sony does before 2012.
« Last Edit: February 08, 2009, 09:39:59 PM by kronovan » Logged
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« Reply #18 on: February 08, 2009, 09:42:18 PM »

Quote from: SensuousLettuce on February 08, 2009, 08:44:02 PM

Quote from: JCC on February 08, 2009, 03:40:20 PM

Quote from: kathode on February 08, 2009, 06:38:45 AM

It's going to be a pretty long console generation.  You have to have some kind of wow factor to get people to drop $400, and I don't think it's going to be increased graphics next time around. 

If MS and Sony haven't learned that their next systems have to enter retail at a price of $299 or less, then they will be crushed by Nintendo again.

Except that I bet a larger proportion of Wiis are sitting around unused than 360s or PS3s...wonder if people would make the same 'mistake' again.

I think a lot of people who buy the Wii don't play video games everyday for hours like some of us.  For them it's probably a neat toy that's fun to play when friends come over or every now and then play with the family.  I'm not sure it's a mistake for someone to have that expectation.  It's different from us more hardcore types but not necessarily bad/wrong.
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« Reply #19 on: February 08, 2009, 09:47:18 PM »

I honestly have no interest or desire for a next gen at the moment, I feel for the price I've paid for consoles this generation they better stick around quite a bit longer.
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« Reply #20 on: February 08, 2009, 11:14:19 PM »

Quote from: SensuousLettuce on February 08, 2009, 08:44:02 PM

Quote from: JCC on February 08, 2009, 03:40:20 PM

Quote from: kathode on February 08, 2009, 06:38:45 AM

It's going to be a pretty long console generation.  You have to have some kind of wow factor to get people to drop $400, and I don't think it's going to be increased graphics next time around. 

If MS and Sony haven't learned that their next systems have to enter retail at a price of $299 or less, then they will be crushed by Nintendo again.

Except that I bet a larger proportion of Wiis are sitting around unused than 360s or PS3s...wonder if people would make the same 'mistake' again.

Anyway, the 120 gig drive is boughten and the data transfer is commencing.

pretty much this. i use my 360 every day. my wii was turned on a couple weeks ago to download a DS demo. I'll take a 400 machine I can and will use over a 250 I won't.

Also to whoever typed ninty. never again please.

I agree that a more powerful machine isn't the answer for the next gen. However, I'm not sure I want all systems having motion controllers. I want my damn JRPGs to stay that way and not failing around to attack. I play those games for 60 hours. I'm not doing that for 60 hours. And frankly using the wiimote any other way is extremely uncomfortable.

MS's next machine will focus even more on being the home entertainment device. I would even suspect that downloading of all games via live as well. What developer wouldn't want that? the consumer now can't pawn off their games to gamestop. Of course I'm not saying retail is going away, much like steam hasn't killed it, yet.
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« Reply #21 on: February 08, 2009, 11:17:04 PM »

Quote from: kronovan on February 08, 2009, 09:35:24 PM

This thread got off on the wrong foot IMO by assuming that MS will make the call when the next gen begins. Hate to say it, but it's the market leader that makes that call and with that in mind I can't see Nintendo not following their traditional 5 year window and launching in 2011.

So you're saying that the current gen didn't start until the PS3 launched?  icon_wink

Frankly, I think we'll see Microsoft start the next generation again. Nintendo might, but that'll only happen if the Wii stops selling like a million units a month globally or something equally insane.
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« Reply #22 on: February 08, 2009, 11:34:48 PM »

Quote from: Destructor on February 08, 2009, 11:17:04 PM

Quote from: kronovan on February 08, 2009, 09:35:24 PM

This thread got off on the wrong foot IMO by assuming that MS will make the call when the next gen begins. Hate to say it, but it's the market leader that makes that call and with that in mind I can't see Nintendo not following their traditional 5 year window and launching in 2011.

So you're saying that the current gen didn't start until the PS3 launched?  icon_wink

Frankly, I think we'll see Microsoft start the next generation again. Nintendo might, but that'll only happen if the Wii stops selling like a million units a month globally or something equally insane.

As much as as I can see the MS Exec's for the gaming division wanting that, I think the shareholders will say otherwise. If it was looking certain that economies would be very healthy by 2010 I could see MS launching then, but I think economics will dictate against it.  As well, based on how market share has played out this console gen MS doesn't have much to loose launching when Nintendo does. Now if MS takes a 90 degree turn and intro's a much more casual oriented console then 2010 is much more likely, but based on excellent 360 game sales -which is where the real money is- I can't see that happening.
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« Reply #23 on: February 09, 2009, 12:37:36 AM »

Quote from: jersoc on February 08, 2009, 11:14:19 PM

Also to whoever typed ninty. never again please.


LOL,that was me.....for two reasons..i still have trouble believing its the same Nintendo who released the Wii that released the NES,SNES,N64 and GC

and also because the Wii is a 'toy'..so it gets a kiddie name for its maker..the Nintendo name is too grown up for the Wii

 icon_smile icon_smile icon_lol
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« Reply #24 on: February 09, 2009, 12:37:38 AM »

Quote from: jersoc on February 08, 2009, 11:14:19 PM


Also to whoever typed ninty. never again please.

Why not? At least it's better than Nintendon't! Tongue
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« Reply #25 on: February 09, 2009, 12:52:34 AM »

Ninty!  Theysa makin' money Ani!  icon_twisted
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« Reply #26 on: February 09, 2009, 01:09:02 AM »

What you have to remember is that MS's gaming divison is still very much in the hole, and in 1-2 more years I only see them breaking even or getting a net profit.  They're very good at presenting themselves as profitable and wildly successful, but they are still hurting from the launch and from the warranty/repair costs.  This will change a bit now that original 360s are now completely out of warranty, and since they've shackled everyone to the system with live and DLC, I suspect there'll be more system sales from that.

Meanwhile Sony is even farther down the hole with their abysmal launch and costlier hardware that they're only now bringing down.

I do think we'll see "next gen" consoles in 2-3 years or so.  But, they'll be more like the Wii was to the Gamecube.  It'll be pretty much very similar architectures, probably almost the same processors.  But there will be more cores for the 720, more SPUs and a few more CPUs for the PS4, but all of their dies will be shrunk down smaller to be cheaper to manufacture.  All this reusing tech should make the next generation cheaper.

There will be more innovation in controllers, mainly they'll use the motion controllers we've heard both companies testing in secret, but they'll have something added to make it more than wii mote clones.
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« Reply #27 on: February 09, 2009, 02:30:09 PM »

To me it comes down to cost. When can they launch a new system and keep it under $300? In Nintendo's case they could probably do that next year if they wanted to, but they won't because the Wii is killing. With Sony and MS they are still losing money on their consoles, which means that with newer and faster consoles they will lose even more money.

If we have learned anything this gen it's that parent's will shell out $200 for their kids console, but not a whole lot of them are willing to shell out $400 to $500 for their kids video games. 
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« Reply #28 on: February 09, 2009, 03:43:45 PM »

I think this generation of consoles can honestly outlast the normal 5-year cycle. Heck, I can't even believe the 360's been out for four years; it just doesn't feel that long. Usually, by around the 4th-5th year I'm eager for the new generation, but this time around it just feels like there's a ton more gaming yet to be had on the current machines without any strong need yet for more powerful consoles.

Don't misunderstand me; I love shiny new super-powered consoles. I just think there's a few years yet in the current gen before we would really benefit from a new batch of them. biggrin
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