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Author Topic: EA Employee - 360 failure rate between 30%-50%  (Read 2449 times)
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Jumangi
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« Reply #40 on: September 01, 2006, 06:37:56 AM »

Quote from: ChaoZ on August 31, 2006, 01:39:49 PM

Okay, even if it doesn't mean it's 100% true, isn't it a pretty good indicator that they are well above the 3-5% failure rate?

However you spin it annecdotal evidence is just that and nothing more. The one "fact" IMO I have learned from Internet forums is they one take themselves way to seriously and two think they represent the majority.
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« Reply #41 on: September 01, 2006, 12:07:50 PM »

Quote from: ChaoZ
You yourself admit that you have had at least one system not perform to specifications and another failed by your own fault. Whether or not you are satisfied is immaterial. Others who have not purchased an extended warranty (which people SHOULDN'T have to buy) won't be so lucky. Design fault or production fault is up for debate.

Your argument about ID-10T users doesn't fly. The Gamecube and even the original Xbox were solid systems (with the exception of the Thompson drives). It's a consumer product and should be built as such. They SHOULD be able to plug shit in and expect it to work. The Xbox360 is a product you should expect KIDS and the non-technologically inclined to use. It's designed so it's easier to use than a computer.

One game, which I didn't bother to retest. It was Oblivion and it was chugging heavy. I didn't even clear the cache.

ONe thing gamers don't do is read manuals.
Also, on the internet reports, not all of MS's customers are on the internet.
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« Reply #42 on: September 01, 2006, 12:33:05 PM »

Quote from: Purge on September 01, 2006, 12:07:50 PM

Quote from: ChaoZ
You yourself admit that you have had at least one system not perform to specifications and another failed by your own fault. Whether or not you are satisfied is immaterial. Others who have not purchased an extended warranty (which people SHOULDN'T have to buy) won't be so lucky. Design fault or production fault is up for debate.

Your argument about ID-10T users doesn't fly. The Gamecube and even the original Xbox were solid systems (with the exception of the Thompson drives). It's a consumer product and should be built as such. They SHOULD be able to plug shit in and expect it to work. The Xbox360 is a product you should expect KIDS and the non-technologically inclined to use. It's designed so it's easier to use than a computer.

One game, which I didn't bother to retest. It was Oblivion and it was chugging heavy. I didn't even clear the cache.

ONe thing gamers don't do is read manuals.
Also, on the internet reports, not all of MS's customers are on the internet.

First thing: SHOULD you be required to clear the cache manually on a game console? I could probably do it just fine, but I'm willing to bet the majority of people with a 360 don't know what a cache is.

Secondly, okay, if they're not on the internet, are they more or less likely to mistreat their system? If it is as you said, that it is the ID-10T users causing the grief, it can also be said that non-internet users tend to be less technically inclined. Therefore, internet reported polls are underrepresenting the people with problems with their systems.
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« Reply #43 on: September 01, 2006, 04:38:00 PM »

Quote from: Ralph-Wiggum on September 01, 2006, 02:21:47 AM

Of course - no one is saying that they aren't. But if 25% of people in an internet poll are saying that they've had failures with their 360, it stands to reason that the  true percentage of people with those problems is higher than the 3% Microsoft is claiming.

The poll tells you something about people who post in GamingTrend Xbox360 failure rate polls, but absolutely nothing about the world at large.  First rule of polls is that you need a random sample.  You're not going to get that on GT. 

Quote
Secondly, okay, if they're not on the internet, are they more or less likely to mistreat their system? If it is as you said, that it is the ID-10T users causing the grief, it can also be said that non-internet users tend to be less technically inclined. Therefore, internet reported polls are underrepresenting the people with problems with their systems.

Really poor assumptions.  An absence of data is just that.  You can't just make things up to fill in the blanks and then base conclusions on them.  I would really hesitate to draw a coorelation between posting on internet forums and mistreating systems.  Big reach.
« Last Edit: September 01, 2006, 04:42:30 PM by kathode » Logged
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« Reply #44 on: September 01, 2006, 05:17:45 PM »

Quote from: kathode on September 01, 2006, 04:38:00 PM

Quote from: Ralph-Wiggum on September 01, 2006, 02:21:47 AM

Of course - no one is saying that they aren't. But if 25% of people in an internet poll are saying that they've had failures with their 360, it stands to reason that the  true percentage of people with those problems is higher than the 3% Microsoft is claiming.

The poll tells you something about people who post in GamingTrend Xbox360 failure rate polls, but absolutely nothing about the world at large.  First rule of polls is that you need a random sample.  You're not going to get that on GT. 

Quote
Secondly, okay, if they're not on the internet, are they more or less likely to mistreat their system? If it is as you said, that it is the ID-10T users causing the grief, it can also be said that non-internet users tend to be less technically inclined. Therefore, internet reported polls are underrepresenting the people with problems with their systems.

Really poor assumptions.  An absence of data is just that.  You can't just make things up to fill in the blanks and then base conclusions on them.  I would really hesitate to draw a coorelation between posting on internet forums and mistreating systems.  Big reach.

How random do you need it? GT users vary between geographic location, amount of usage, date of purchase and the different games played. Saying that our poll results have "nothing" to do with the real world is absurd. Yes it excludes the non-internet crowd and also the crowd which are on the net, but do not participate in forums BUT does that equate to their systems being less prone to failure?

On a scale of 100 of being a complete survey of all Xbox 360 users and 1 being a survey of your two closest friends for randomness, how would you rank GT?  How random is Xbox360 Fanboy?
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« Reply #45 on: September 01, 2006, 06:15:46 PM »

Quote from: ChaoZ on September 01, 2006, 05:17:45 PM

How random is Xbox360 Fanboy?
See, the funny thing is, ChaoZ, if you cared half as much about statistical data gathering as you claim to, you'd know that rule #1 of any study is to have a large, random sample of subjects.

1.)  Gaming Trend is not large.  53 voters out of 5 million shipped units = completely insignificant, sorry.

2.)  Gaming Trend is not random.  We're all (mostly) 'hardcore' gamers with certain brand loyalties and biases.  Plus most of us know eachother to some degree.

Really, dude, whatever linguistic thrashing and snapping you might make, nothing you write is going to change the fact that your argument fails immediately, at rule #1, right out of the gate.  This is not something that can be debated or negotiated.  You're just wrong, dude.
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« Reply #46 on: September 01, 2006, 06:23:22 PM »

Quote
Really, dude, whatever linguistic thrashing and snapping you might make, nothing you write is going to change the fact that your argument fails immediately, at rule #1, right out of the gate.  This is not something that can be debated or negotiated.  You're just wrong, dude.

I'm not going to back the statistical agruments (because you can't, as you noted), but are you telling me that the fact that 16 of our forum members (or whatever the number currently is) have had to send back their 360s, sometimes multiple times, isn't a potential cause for concern?  And before you counter with, "well they could be lurkers/lying fanboys/etc", quite a few of our "regulars" have posted elsewhere on this forum of their difficulties with the machine so I think we could put names to quite a few of them and not a one of them is a Sony fanboy as I recall.   
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« Reply #47 on: September 01, 2006, 06:31:23 PM »

A sample doesn't necessarily have to be massive, but 50ish is still pretty small.

It's ok that the sample isn't random (that is, it's okay that the sample is biased). That doesn't automatically invalidate the results, but we must be very careful about how we attempt to generalize the results beyond the population from which the sample was derived. Drawing conclusions about the failure rate of all 360's based on GT readers that choose to answer a poll could be tenuous, both because GT is a specialized population and the people answering the poll question are self-selecting (choosing to answer themselves as opposed to being randomly selected).
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Ralph-Wiggum
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« Reply #48 on: September 01, 2006, 06:48:02 PM »

Quote from: -Lord Ebonstone- on September 01, 2006, 06:15:46 PM

1.)  Gaming Trend is not large.  53 voters out of 5 million shipped units = completely insignificant, sorry.

Actually, ignoring the random part for a bit, you can still get usable data with a low population size. If we were a completely random population, with 54 people voting on whether their 360 has failed or not (I'm not including the Ellen Pompano votes), you'd have a margin of error of about 13%. That's pretty big, but it would still indicate that the failure rate is quite high. Of course, GT isn't a random population. But a having a relatively small n does not render a poll meaningless.
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« Reply #49 on: September 01, 2006, 07:58:15 PM »

I'm very surprised we had 18 people who said their 360 failed and required service.  I intentionally set the bar kinda high by not leaving an option for the intermittent problems.  I'm sure some could have voted yes even though their problem was only intermittent but still 18 out of 50+ people is about 10 more than I thought we'd have.
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ChaoZ
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« Reply #50 on: September 01, 2006, 08:16:05 PM »

Note that I never tried to validate the 30-50% mark suggested by the EA guy. I'm simply questioning the 3-5% quoted by Microsoft.

Maybe the GT 360 owners are just unlucky. Let's just leave it at that.
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« Reply #51 on: September 01, 2006, 08:24:05 PM »

Quote from: Kevin Grey on September 01, 2006, 06:23:22 PM

I'm not going to back the statistical agruments (because you can't, as you noted), but are you telling me that the fact that 16 of our forum members (or whatever the number currently is) have had to send back their 360s, sometimes multiple times, isn't a potential cause for concern?
Sure it's a potential cause for concern, but not on a scale any bigger than GT.

If we were wanted to start making hypotheses about the data acquired, I think "the XBox360 is prone to a 30% failure rate" is one of the shakiest we could make.  It's not out of the realm of possibility, but we've seen no hard evidence that supports that claim yet, just anecdotal evidence.

There are a crapton of hidden variable problems with our self-selected poll that prevent the results from being able to be applied on a product-wide scale.  A few notable ones:

1.)  Disaffecteds are more likely to report than people who don't have a problem.

2.)  We're on a gaming site, so it stands to reason the individuals who responded use their systems for longer periods of time than the average user, and/or used more features of the systems, which meant more of the architecture was exposed to error.

3.)  We know nothing about the conditions the systems were kept or used in.  In a truly random sampling, that wouldn't matter.

As I've stated above, the evidence I've seen on here and other sites does not suggest the 360 is poorly constructed as much as it suggests the 360 is just as sensitive, if not more so, than a top-of-the-line computer or laptop.

I would argue that you're seeing high failure rates on gaming sites because of the self-selective process.  A 'casual' user (3-4 hours a week, let's say) who keeps the 360 in less than optimal conditions, (poor ventilation, dusty/dirty, etc), is going to have his system survive longer than the 'hardcore' user (10+ hours a week, let's say).  The common thread between the two is that the system is in less than optimal conditions.  A system that has 72 hours to cool off between uses is going to survive shitty conditions, while a system that has less than 24 might not.

The fact that refurb units keep failing can mean any number of things.  Maybe MS's refurb process sucks.  Maybe the systems are too sensitive to make refurbs even viable.  Or maybe the user who gets a refurb which works just fine is still abusing the console in a way that causes failure.

At this point, we just don't know.  30% failure rate is ridiculous, though.  That's 1.5 MILLION bad units shipped.  Does anyone honestly think that's the case?
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« Reply #52 on: September 01, 2006, 08:30:19 PM »

What if MS is drawing a line between failure rate and return rate? What if for some units all that was need was a good hit of compressed air or a similarly easy repair? They recognize the problem, do a quick fix and ship them back out to other people. Then, of those returns, 3-5% are unsalvagable.

Still, if anywhere near 30% units are being returned, that's a huge hit, but I don't think it's unreasonable to think more than 3-5% of units sold are being returned.
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