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Question: It's now 30 days until the next generation begins.   I've noticed a lot of shifting of opinions in the last 30 days back and forth.   Which console are you buying in November?
PS4 - 42 (32.3%)
Xbone - 15 (11.5%)
Both - 13 (10%)
Neither - 19 (14.6%)
Waiting until later - 41 (31.5%)
Total Voters: 130

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Author Topic: 2890 Days until launch. Which system are you getting?  (Read 35215 times)
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YellowKing
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« Reply #2640 on: January 17, 2014, 02:07:53 PM »

Nintendo needs to go the Sega route and get out of the console business. Stick with the portables because they're really successful in that arena, but otherwise license your IPs out and give us Mario and Zelda on XB1 and PS4. That would be awesome. Last time I checked, Sonic has done pretty well for himself on other consoles and even smartphones/tablets.
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« Reply #2641 on: January 17, 2014, 02:08:52 PM »

I still don't understand why they don't have coffers full of gold, seeing as EVERYONE bought a Wii back when they released.
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« Reply #2642 on: January 17, 2014, 02:14:38 PM »

Quote from: wonderpug on January 17, 2014, 01:38:48 PM

I'm not exactly going to cry if the Wii U fails badly enough for them to port Zelda and Mario over to the Xbone/PS4 with better graphics...

I just want the WiiU to see a massive price drop, say $150ish, and I will buy it for the exclusives.
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wonderpug
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« Reply #2643 on: January 17, 2014, 02:26:37 PM »

Quote from: Scraper on January 17, 2014, 02:14:38 PM

Quote from: wonderpug on January 17, 2014, 01:38:48 PM

I'm not exactly going to cry if the Wii U fails badly enough for them to port Zelda and Mario over to the Xbone/PS4 with better graphics...

I just want the WiiU to see a massive price drop, say $150ish, and I will buy it for the exclusives.

That works for me too!
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Bullwinkle
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« Reply #2644 on: January 17, 2014, 02:33:46 PM »

Quote from: Harkonis on January 17, 2014, 01:29:29 PM

they were actually specifically talking about mario NOT going to smartphones, but whatever slywink

Quote
“Given the expansion of smart devices, we are naturally studying how smart devices can be used to grow the game-player business,” Iwata said. “It’s not as simple as enabling Mario to move on a smartphone.


The quote was about not just using a smartphone as a controller for Mario, but that they are absolutely talking about how to get into the smartphone world.

I imagine this will be more about Miiverse and integration and not just porting games or creating new ones (at least at first).  They have their pride, and I bet they will try to keep things in-house until the last possible moment.  But the investors may be feeling that the last possible moment has arrived.

Either way, they were not specifically talking about NOT moving him anywhere in that piece.
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Caine
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« Reply #2645 on: January 17, 2014, 04:32:16 PM »

Quote from: wonderpug on January 17, 2014, 02:26:37 PM

Quote from: Scraper on January 17, 2014, 02:14:38 PM

Quote from: wonderpug on January 17, 2014, 01:38:48 PM

I'm not exactly going to cry if the Wii U fails badly enough for them to port Zelda and Mario over to the Xbone/PS4 with better graphics...

I just want the WiiU to see a massive price drop, say $150ish, and I will buy it for the exclusives.

That works for me too!
that makes it a lot more tempting to me as well. 
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msduncan
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« Reply #2646 on: January 17, 2014, 05:09:32 PM »

I'm sad for the Wii U.   icon_cry
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JCC
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« Reply #2647 on: January 17, 2014, 05:41:55 PM »

Agree on the Wii U. It's cheaper than the ps4 and XBone but still costs too much for me right now. Drop the price and get out new, good metroid and Zelda titles and I will be on board.
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« Reply #2648 on: January 23, 2014, 09:32:00 PM »

MS has released their Q2 earning reports.  Can someone decipher this

Quote from: MS
   The company sold 7.4 million Xbox console units into the retail channel, including 3.9 million Xbox One consoles and 3.5 million Xbox 360 consoles.

This means sold to stores not to consumers. correct?
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forgeforsaken
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« Reply #2649 on: January 23, 2014, 09:38:18 PM »

Quote from: Soulchilde on January 23, 2014, 09:32:00 PM

MS has released their Q2 earning reports.  Can someone decipher this

Quote from: MS
   The company sold 7.4 million Xbox console units into the retail channel, including 3.9 million Xbox One consoles and 3.5 million Xbox 360 consoles.

This means sold to stores not to consumers. correct?
Correct.
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TiLT
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« Reply #2650 on: January 23, 2014, 09:47:31 PM »

Compared to the 3 million number for actual sales released earlier, that means there was 0,9 million units on store shelves at the end of December, unless I'm entirely mistaken.
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« Reply #2651 on: January 23, 2014, 11:14:51 PM »

Quote from: TiLT on January 23, 2014, 09:47:31 PM

Compared to the 3 million number for actual sales released earlier, that means there was 0,9 million units on store shelves at the end of December, unless I'm entirely mistaken.


Okay, thanks Forge and Tilt.  Not sure if this is a good thing or not.  I know the earning reports have to be accurate. 
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YellowKing
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« Reply #2652 on: January 24, 2014, 12:10:16 AM »


If you're an Xbox fan, the console is exceeding expectations, and by MS launching in fewer markets they're not facing the same supply problems Sony is facing. If you're a Sony fan, the competition is healthy and will be spurring Sony to not rest on their laurels.

And if you play games, not corporations, then it means the console industry is alive and well and promises one hell of a fun decade.
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wonderpug
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« Reply #2653 on: January 24, 2014, 02:30:42 AM »

At the risk of returning to the thread's original purpose...

Microsoft wins my money!  (Or at least, they win it first.)

In the end the Xbone won out for me because of the games.  Right out the gate it has more exclusives that interest me, and in a month it'll get Titanfall which is super high on my interest list.  The option of getting a PS4 and the PC version of Titanfall was super tempting, but I just plain prefer FPS gaming with a controller over mouse & keyboard nowadays.

Out of all the marbles on the scale on the PS4 side, the biggest one was that it'll likely have better graphics on cross-platform titles for most if not all of this generation.  But getting 1080p more often on cross-platform games just wasn't important enough to me to outweigh access to Xbone exclusives.

The other big marble for the PS4 are its exclusives, particularly the indie game prospects.  But everything exciting on the PS4 horizon for me is single player, and I don't mind being late late to the party on single player games nearly as much as I do multiplayer games.

tl;dr, Titanfall really is a system-seller, at least for me.

Oh, but I have to admit there are some mighty mind games that come up from the Xbone being on shelves everywhere and the PS4 being harder to find.  Even after making up my mind to buy the Xbone, there was a big part of me that felt like it had less worth because it was so easy to get.

Now if these kids of mine will hurry up and go to bed so I can set this thing up...  icon_neutral
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forgeforsaken
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« Reply #2654 on: January 24, 2014, 02:35:23 AM »

Quote from: wonderpug on January 24, 2014, 02:30:42 AM

one was that it'll likely have better graphics on cross-platform titles for most if not all of this generation.  But getting 1080p more often on cross-platform games just wasn't important enough to me to outweigh access to Xbone exclusives.


It's not just 1080p though.  Tomb Raider Definitive Edition is supposedly 1080 on both but 60FPS roughly on PS4 and 30FPS roughly on XB1, or at least that's the current scuttlebutt blowing up on GAF.  So these things manifest in multiple ways, not always resolution.
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wonderpug
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« Reply #2655 on: January 24, 2014, 03:38:57 AM »

Quote from: forgeforsaken on January 24, 2014, 02:35:23 AM

Quote from: wonderpug on January 24, 2014, 02:30:42 AM

one was that it'll likely have better graphics on cross-platform titles for most if not all of this generation.  But getting 1080p more often on cross-platform games just wasn't important enough to me to outweigh access to Xbone exclusives.


It's not just 1080p though.  Tomb Raider Definitive Edition is supposedly 1080 on both but 60FPS roughly on PS4 and 30FPS roughly on XB1, or at least that's the current scuttlebutt blowing up on GAF.  So these things manifest in multiple ways, not always resolution.

Yup, and there's also that stupid filter they're overdoing on the Xbone, which I'm about to see firsthand with AssCreed, my first game purchase.  But if I didn't mind playing the 360 version of the Arkham games even though I could have had nifty PhysX effects and a higher resolution on the PC, I'm pretty sure I'm not going to shed tears looking at the Xbone versions of cross-platform titles.  The better PS4 performance was definitely one of the things that made my decision the hardest.

After fondling both controllers in stores, I also think the PS4 has the slightly better controller.  The Xbone controller mainly loses points for a seemingly overly sharp ridge around the top of the analog sticks, while the PS4 controller just felt comfortable and perfect in every way.  Well, I guess the PS4 controller loses some points for the glowy light, which I think I'd hate, at least until they add an option to disable it.  The Xbone controller gets some points (at least on paper until I try it for myself) for the force feedback triggers, which sounds delightful to my gadget geek side.

I'm still skeptical about how much I'm going to care for the new Kinect stuff and Center of Your Home Theater Universe stuff, but the fitness stuff on Kinect looks like it'll please both me and the Mrs., and if someone gets around to making some kid games for the Kinect that could be perfect for my toddlers.
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Caine
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« Reply #2656 on: January 24, 2014, 04:02:10 AM »

the glowy light isn't even noticeable when I play.  I'd have to be in pitch black for it to register. 
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JCC
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« Reply #2657 on: January 24, 2014, 04:17:11 AM »

I'm still trying to figure out if the XBone being readily available is a sign of MS providing more than adequate supply or is a sign of post launch lack of demand. I really have no idea which it is. Maybe some of both?
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wonderpug
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« Reply #2658 on: January 24, 2014, 04:31:38 AM »

Quote from: Caine on January 24, 2014, 04:02:10 AM

the glowy light isn't even noticeable when I play.  I'd have to be in pitch black for it to register. 

It's quite possible I wouldn't mind it, but I get easily annoyed by overly bright LEDs on other products and often tape paper over them, and since I've seen other people wish for a way to dim or disable the light I think there's a good chance I'd agree with them.  All theory, of course, since I have yet to see a display model with the light turned on.  Like I said, though, I think the PS4 controller is the better one regardless.

Quote from: JCC on January 24, 2014, 04:17:11 AM

I'm still trying to figure out if the XBone being readily available is a sign of MS providing more than adequate supply or is a sign of post launch lack of demand. I really have no idea which it is. Maybe some of both?
I really think they just overdid it on prioritizing the US supply over the international supply, but then again since the PS3 was more popular than the 360 outside the US maybe the numbers wouldn't look all that much better with different distribution.  Still, I think MS is shooting itself in the foot with how well stocked the Xbone is everywhere.  It gave me an instinctual feeling that the PS4 was more desirable even though I have a good understanding of the larger story, and the general public can't be expected to know Sony isn't prioritizing the US for distribution the way MS is.
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YellowKing
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« Reply #2659 on: January 24, 2014, 04:37:27 AM »

There are two false perceptions floating around. That XB1s in stock indicate lack of demand, and that PS4s out of stock means demand so high they can't keep up. The driver is on the supply side. Sony released virtually everywhere and spread stock thin. Microsoft released in limited territories and kept supply adequate. You can't draw any conclusions based on this because you're trying to compare apples and oranges. At any rate it doesn't matter - the market can support two consoles, they're both very successful, so neither one is in any danger of not having lots of great games and a long lifespan.

I'm also glad I went with XB1 because I think I'd be bored to tears with a PS4 by this point. I fully plan on buying one, but I'm pushing out my purchase date from March since they don't have anything on the horizon except Infamous which I'm not interested in. I really want The Order but there's no date on that one yet.

As far as the frame rate/resolution stuff, I haven't thought about any of it since I bought the XB1. It's all about the games. Even AC4 with the over sharp filter and 900p I've put in over 40 hours. I don't think the average gamer is going to care either. Lower frame rate and resolution certainly didn't hurt CoD or BF4's sales.

Quote
[Still, I think MS is shooting itself in the foot with how well stocked the Xbone is everywhere.  It gave me an instinctual feeling that the PS4 was more desirable even though I have a good understanding of the larger story, and the general public can't be expected to know Sony isn't prioritizing the US for distribution the way MS is.

The general public doesn't get instinctual feelings about which console is better based on scarcity. They just walk into a store and see that they can buy this one, but they can't buy that one. So they buy the one they can actually get.

I don't think any business on earth would say that not having product on the shelf when someone is waiting to buy it as a positive. Every time a customer comes up empty-handed, they run the risk of losing that customer to the competition. Far from shooting themselves in the foot, Microsoft did exactly what any normal business would do - they made sure they had a unit for sale to anyone who wanted to hand over their money. Maybe that's why MS posts multi-billion dollar profits every quarter while Sony posts multi-million dollar losses.
« Last Edit: January 24, 2014, 04:49:57 AM by YellowKing » Logged
TiLT
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« Reply #2660 on: January 24, 2014, 05:19:31 AM »

That the Xbox One has available stock is actually pretty relevant to what we've been talking about in this thread. The tune being played here since both consoles' releases has been that there's no point comparing sales data until some way into 2014 because both are selling out all their stock anyway. Go back to earlier in the thread and check. Well, it now turns out both consoles aren't selling out all available stock. Only the PS4 is. The Xbox One had almost 1/4 of its stock unsold at the end of December, which is several months earlier than most people expected. That's bad.
« Last Edit: January 24, 2014, 05:21:13 AM by TiLT » Logged
wonderpug
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« Reply #2661 on: January 24, 2014, 05:42:34 AM »

Holy jebus, the Xbone sure isn't winning any awards for first impressions.  I'm at least 20 minutes into trying to get Assassin's Creed up and running.  I knew going in that the Xbone had longer install times than the PS4, but now I'm doing some futile goofy dance just trying to get it to install at all.  The internet tells me that there's some kerflunky thing going on where the Xbone gets confused trying to download an update patch before doing the disc install, so I have to disable the internet connection on the Xbone, do the install, then reconnect WiFi and proceed with the update.   retard  Seriously?!  But even that fix doesn't seem to be working, because I either get stuck with some kind of installation queue or with the installation still stalling at 1%.  It's an improvement over stalling at 0%, but still not exactly what I had in mind for tonight.

edit: ah, I see.  The fix is working now.  I had to cancel the first install attempt from the "Your Games & Apps" area deeper in the OS menus, rather than from the install icon on the home screen.  I'm not going to have to do this dance every time I install a new game, am I?
« Last Edit: January 24, 2014, 05:51:55 AM by wonderpug » Logged
TiLT
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« Reply #2662 on: January 24, 2014, 06:47:05 AM »

Microsoft made a statement to Gamespot about the unsold stock issue:

Quote
"We sold through nearly every unit we could in the holiday period and pulled forward as many units as we could from Q3. However, only some of those shipments were sold into the channel in the final period of the quarter and so there was not time to sell the units through to customers," Dennis said. "These units are now being sold through to customers."

So what they're saying is that the majority of their 900k unsold units had been shipped to retailers before Christmas but didn't get there until January? That sounds highly unlikely to me, largely because even Microsoft wouldn't end up planning their shipments so that they couldn't take advantage of the Christmas shopping. The quote really tells us nothing, but I figured it was worth quoting to at least balance out things a bit.
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« Reply #2663 on: January 24, 2014, 09:47:27 AM »

Quote from: TiLT on January 24, 2014, 06:47:05 AM

Microsoft made a statement to Gamespot about the unsold stock issue:

Quote
"We sold through nearly every unit we could in the holiday period and pulled forward as many units as we could from Q3. However, only some of those shipments were sold into the channel in the final period of the quarter and so there was not time to sell the units through to customers," Dennis said. "These units are now being sold through to customers."

So what they're saying is that the majority of their 900k unsold units had been shipped to retailers before Christmas but didn't get there until January? That sounds highly unlikely to me, largely because even Microsoft wouldn't end up planning their shipments so that they couldn't take advantage of the Christmas shopping. The quote really tells us nothing, but I figured it was worth quoting to at least balance out things a bit.

btw, that the way I read it too and I'm firmly in MS camp.  XB1 is a success but that 900K unsold is a bit glaring to me
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YellowKing
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« Reply #2664 on: January 24, 2014, 04:17:49 PM »

Let me illustrate with an anecdote why no meaningful conclusions can be drawn from anecdotal evidence smile

Best Buy manager gets 100 XB1s in. Over the course of the week he sells those units and gets another 100 units in. From my personal perspective, it looks like there were 100 units at beginning of the week, 100 units at the end of the week, Xbox isn't selling.

Meanwhile Best Buy manager gets no PS4 units in. From my perspective the PS4 can't stay on store shelves!

The reality is Xbox sold 100 units, PS4 sold zero, but my perception is the total opposite.

It is interesting how certain people can't seem to accept the fact that the XB is doing well, to the point that every time even the slightest positive news is revealed, they feel the need to rain on the parade. Interesting and unfortunate.
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Harkonis
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« Reply #2665 on: January 24, 2014, 04:32:11 PM »

Quote from: TiLT on January 24, 2014, 06:47:05 AM

Microsoft made a statement to Gamespot about the unsold stock issue:

Quote
"We sold through nearly every unit we could in the holiday period and pulled forward as many units as we could from Q3. However, only some of those shipments were sold into the channel in the final period of the quarter and so there was not time to sell the units through to customers," Dennis said. "These units are now being sold through to customers."

So what they're saying is that the majority of their 900k unsold units had been shipped to retailers before Christmas but didn't get there until January? That sounds highly unlikely to me, largely because even Microsoft wouldn't end up planning their shipments so that they couldn't take advantage of the Christmas shopping. The quote really tells us nothing, but I figured it was worth quoting to at least balance out things a bit.

That's actually not what that quote says at all, but it's pretty much pointless trying to explain any of this to you.  Your biased view is clouding your reasoning
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« Reply #2666 on: January 24, 2014, 04:34:58 PM »

very true about that YK.  it's all highly susceptible to perception based on a single event.  Last Saturday, I stopped by a Costco and saw that they had no XB1's in stock but had two pallets worth of PS4s, about 30 consoles.  I also stopped by a TRU and they had no PS4s and half a dozen XB1s.  you could make some wild speculation based on those numbers, but they would not be accurate outside of that specific sample at that single instant.  with no way to see stock on shelf and sales per week, we are simply wasting our time arguing over which one is doing better.  I would simply say at this stage that I'm glad to see units on shelf this soon after launch as this was definitely not the case with the last gen for quite a while.  
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« Reply #2667 on: January 24, 2014, 04:44:52 PM »

Quote from: YellowKing on January 24, 2014, 04:17:49 PM

Let me illustrate with an anecdote why no meaningful conclusions can be drawn from anecdotal evidence smile

Who's talking about anecdotal evidence?

Quote
It is interesting how certain people can't seem to accept the fact that the XB is doing well, to the point that every time even the slightest positive news is revealed, they feel the need to rain on the parade. Interesting and unfortunate.

The Xbox One is certainly doing well. It just isn't doing as well as expected.

Quote from: Harkonis on January 24, 2014, 04:32:11 PM

Quote from: TiLT on January 24, 2014, 06:47:05 AM

Microsoft made a statement to Gamespot about the unsold stock issue:

Quote
"We sold through nearly every unit we could in the holiday period and pulled forward as many units as we could from Q3. However, only some of those shipments were sold into the channel in the final period of the quarter and so there was not time to sell the units through to customers," Dennis said. "These units are now being sold through to customers."

So what they're saying is that the majority of their 900k unsold units had been shipped to retailers before Christmas but didn't get there until January? That sounds highly unlikely to me, largely because even Microsoft wouldn't end up planning their shipments so that they couldn't take advantage of the Christmas shopping. The quote really tells us nothing, but I figured it was worth quoting to at least balance out things a bit.

That's actually not what that quote says at all, but it's pretty much pointless trying to explain any of this to you.  Your biased view is clouding your reasoning

If you have something constructive to say, such as explaining what that quote "actually says", then say it. Taking on the "holier than thou" attitude doesn't work.
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« Reply #2668 on: January 24, 2014, 06:10:52 PM »

Ultimately the issues of in stock vs out stock do not in and of themselves lead to any conclusion (as I noted in my earlier post). I just think the rampant availability of the XBone is interesting because I can't remember any other console being this readily available this close to launch. I mean you can look at best buy's web site to see if they are in stock at your local stores. It's barely been out two months! I am just amazed by that. Until the January NPDs reveal the numbers any conclusion drawn about what that means is speculation.
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« Reply #2669 on: January 24, 2014, 06:31:39 PM »

Ya, I can still reserve an Xbone at any store I want online right now. All the local Best Buy's and Future Shops got a shipment of PS4's in on Wednesday and their website lit up like a Christmas tree showing stock was available. They were gone by lunchtime.
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« Reply #2670 on: January 24, 2014, 06:34:32 PM »

Quote from: TiLT
The Xbox One is certainly doing well. It just isn't doing as well as expected.

The mind boggles. How in the world can you say that with a straight face?
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« Reply #2671 on: January 24, 2014, 06:47:13 PM »

Quote from: YellowKing on January 24, 2014, 06:34:32 PM

Quote from: TiLT
The Xbox One is certainly doing well. It just isn't doing as well as expected.

The mind boggles. How in the world can you say that with a straight face?

Why wouldn't I? You've been one of the people pointing out repeatedly that both consoles would be sold out until early spring, and so have I. Now the official numbers are out, and it turns out the Xbox One was far from sold out (worldwide admittedly. Do we know the US numbers specifically?) at the end of December.

I don't see why I shouldn't be able to have a straight face based on these facts. This isn't anecdotal. These are official numbers and quotes from Microsoft.
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« Reply #2672 on: January 24, 2014, 07:07:11 PM »

Expectation: There won't be any units available on shelves for a long while due to demand.
Reality: There are units readily available on shelves in January.
Conclusion: Not selling as well as expected.
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« Reply #2673 on: January 24, 2014, 07:08:06 PM »

Note that does not mean "not doing well". It's doing very well. But I can't see how anyone can say it's doing as well as expected, with the expecation being non-stop sell-outs.
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« Reply #2674 on: January 24, 2014, 07:20:17 PM »

It's also worth mentioning that the Xbox One is doing better than what the biggest naysayers feared before the two consoles launched last year. That it's even able to stay competitive with the PS4 is testament to Microsoft having done something right towards the end, even if it's hard to point to a specific reason. It's probably a combination of factors. So even if the Xbox One is doing worse than expected at this point, it's still doing awesome compared to what could have been.

In completely different news, this little tidbit from the last update for Kingdom Come: Deliverance was pretty interesting:

Quote
Before I spill the beans about how it worked out, let me digress for a minute. Our meeting with the investor took place 13 days before the launch of PS4. What has that got to do with us? A lot, because I had deduced one interesting, almost shocking revelation from our negotiations: one of the main reasons why nobody had signed for our game was the fear, I would say almost horror, of the established big publishers that the new consoles would be a washout, that they weren’t powerful enough and that people today wanted nothing but free-to-play MMOs for iPad. So they were all preparing a few guaranteed mega-titles and waiting to see what happened with regard to everything else, which sent a few studios to the wall and might also result in a big drought for good console games in 2015, because I get the feeling from behind-the-scenes talk and indications that most publishers have nothing prepared for that year, because they didn’t want to plan that far ahead in such an uncertain climate and now they can hardly come up with something epic in less than two years. (But I might be wrong. Feel free to put me right if you know more than I do, which is entirely possible.)

That is enormously bad news for the big publishers. If they have to play catch-up to the much more dynamic indies over the next two years, the transition from the traditional publishing model to an indie-dominated game market could be much faster than anyone expected.
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gellar
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« Reply #2675 on: January 24, 2014, 07:24:22 PM »

Quote from: JayDee on January 24, 2014, 07:08:06 PM

Note that does not mean "not doing well". It's doing very well. But I can't see how anyone can say it's doing as well as expected, with the expecation being non-stop sell-outs.

Was that the expectation or the hope though?

The #s I've seen show the X1 doing fairly poorly outside of NAM, but well enough to not be irrelevant. I'd say that's what was expected.
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wonderpug
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« Reply #2676 on: January 24, 2014, 07:37:42 PM »

Quote from: gellar on January 24, 2014, 07:24:22 PM

Quote from: JayDee on January 24, 2014, 07:08:06 PM

Note that does not mean "not doing well". It's doing very well. But I can't see how anyone can say it's doing as well as expected, with the expecation being non-stop sell-outs.

Was that the expectation or the hope though?

The #s I've seen show the X1 doing fairly poorly outside of NAM, but well enough to not be irrelevant. I'd say that's what was expected.

It's also worth noting that the units on shelves aren't exactly boxes of disappointment to be thrown into the ocean.  I don't know how much of a system seller Titanfall will be, but if the supply situation still looks like this when it hits, anyone who wants an Xbone for Titanfall will be able to find one.  And when the next big cross-platform titles hit, will a Joe Gamer who thinks he wants to play Metal Gear Solid on a PS4 be patient enough to hunt for one?  Or will he just give up after the first try or two and buy an Xbone instead because one is right there on a shelf?
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YellowKing
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« Reply #2677 on: January 24, 2014, 07:54:36 PM »

You're using a bunch of smoke and mirrors, TiLT, to draw an invalid conclusion.

Fact: Estimates at launch were 10 million units combined for PS4 and XB1 through Q1, with PS4 holding a slight edge. This has turned out to be entirely accurate (actually, will probably end up being an underestimation).

Fact: Many people were guessing, based on MS's bad PR and higher price point, that PS4 would be outselling it 2:1 in the best case scenario (with some even claiming 4:1). This has not turned out to be the case.

So XB1 has at worst case equaled or best case outperformed neutral analysts expectations. It has also outperformed "conventional wisdom" estimates.

Also, you're again drawing an invalid conclusion based on supply. Sure, many people guessed both consoles would be sold out through early spring. But we don't know how much of MS's abundance is due to oversupply vs underdemand, or how much of PS4's scarcity is due to undersupply vs overdemand. You're assuming the worst for Xbox and the best for PS4, which is entirely unfair and unfounded.

As far as the online anecdotes, again an example of why this is invalid reasoning. Let's say theoretical demand for both consoles is 100. If website A has 200 Xboxes in stock, but only 100 PS4s in stock, then they're going to have plenty of Xboxes to meet demand but the PS4s are going to sell out in a matter of hours. Demand could be exactly the same for both (or even higher for an XB1), and based purely on anecdotal evidence you could draw the completely wrong conclusion.

I'm not saying it's impossible that XB1 is seeing lower demand than PS4. I think it's highly likely that the PS4 is in higher demand for numerous reasons. However, we can't draw conclusions from incomplete evidence.

If you assumed that XB1 and PS4 manufacturing capability was perfectly equal, the simple fact that the XB1 launched in 13 markets vs the PS4's 48 would dictate that the XB1 should have plenty of stock in those markets.

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TiLT
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« Reply #2678 on: January 24, 2014, 08:04:12 PM »

Quote from: YellowKing on January 24, 2014, 07:54:36 PM

You're using a bunch of smoke and mirrors, TiLT, to draw an invalid conclusion.

On the contrary. You're using irrelevant sources to confirm your own bias. I feel like I'm being pretty clear in these last posts, but you're ignoring what I'm saying. At least it looks like others are on the same page as me here.

Quote
Fact: Estimates at launch were 10 million units combined for PS4 and XB1 through Q1, with PS4 holding a slight edge. This has turned out to be entirely accurate (actually, will probably end up being an underestimation).

Fact: Many people were guessing, based on MS's bad PR and higher price point, that PS4 would be outselling it 2:1 in the best case scenario (with some even claiming 4:1). This has not turned out to be the case.

Fact: I was talking about the expectations in this thread about both consoles being sold out until early spring. I've mentioned this several times already. I used argument A to draw conclusion B. You're using argument C to draw conclusion D. A and C are not related. B and D are not related. This isn't terribly complicated. You're building a straw man by arguing against an argument I haven't made.
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gellar
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« Reply #2679 on: January 24, 2014, 08:06:41 PM »

Quote from: wonderpug on January 24, 2014, 07:37:42 PM

Quote from: gellar on January 24, 2014, 07:24:22 PM

Quote from: JayDee on January 24, 2014, 07:08:06 PM

Note that does not mean "not doing well". It's doing very well. But I can't see how anyone can say it's doing as well as expected, with the expecation being non-stop sell-outs.

Was that the expectation or the hope though?

The #s I've seen show the X1 doing fairly poorly outside of NAM, but well enough to not be irrelevant. I'd say that's what was expected.

It's also worth noting that the units on shelves aren't exactly boxes of disappointment to be thrown into the ocean.  I don't know how much of a system seller Titanfall will be, but if the supply situation still looks like this when it hits, anyone who wants an Xbone for Titanfall will be able to find one.  And when the next big cross-platform titles hit, will a Joe Gamer who thinks he wants to play Metal Gear Solid on a PS4 be patient enough to hunt for one?  Or will he just give up after the first try or two and buy an Xbone instead because one is right there on a shelf?

Interesting point really. We'll have to see.

As far as Titanfall goes - it's *the* reason I asked for an Xbox One for Christmas even though I already had a PS4. So that's one piece of anecdotal evidence that it is a system seller for some.
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