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Author Topic: [PS3] Only 500k at launch?  (Read 2864 times)
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Destructor
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« on: September 06, 2006, 01:40:25 PM »

Odds are you already noticed this post showing how the PS3 won't launch in Europe until March of 2007, but have you seen this article via the Associated Press stating via interview with Ken Kutaragi that only 500k units will launch total this November?

Quote
"We decided to focus on the Japanese and U.S. markets," he said at the gaming unit's Tokyo headquarters. "I am so sorry not to be able to answer to all the expectations."
 
The company is still sticking to its initial global target of shipping 6 million PlayStation 3 machines by March 2007.
 
But far fewer machines will be available for the launch dates in Japan and the U.S. because of the production problem, Kutaragi said.
 
In the U.S., about 400,000 PlayStation 3 machines will be available when they go on sale Nov. 17. About 100,000 will be available on the Nov. 11 Japan launch date.
 
The production problem is causing about a one-month delay that will reduce the company's supply capacity by about a million machines from the original plan, he said.
 
"We've been working hard to try to tackle the problem, but we see the delay is inevitable," he said.

Left Hand, this is Right Hand. Glad to see we're all talking to one another again.

And on a more serious note, all I have to say is this - for those lucky 500k guys, I'd be selling my $600 console on eBay for $1500. You'll get it, I guarentee it.

EDIT: Realized I didn't actually link to my source for the post. Whoops.
« Last Edit: September 06, 2006, 02:02:33 PM by Destructor » Logged

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« Reply #1 on: September 06, 2006, 01:59:13 PM »

I misread the subject; thought you wrote "Only $500k at launch?"

I can forsee lining up a couple hours early on launch day to EBay a PS3.  So for those who want one, please get in line in front of me; I won't feel any guilt for flipping one of these if someone is stupid enough to pay similarly to how they were for the 360.  (I will look to see just how hot they are before I do any such thing; I'd hate to be stuck with a $600 PS3)
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« Reply #2 on: September 06, 2006, 02:04:35 PM »

Apparently Krazy Ken was right when he said there was only gonna be 2 million consoles by the end of the year.

Quote
Kutaragi said other preparation work on the machine was going smoothly, including the "cell" next-generation computer chip. Mass production of the machine is set to start end of September, he said.

They still haven't even started making the things yet (at the very end of the article I linked to in the beginning).
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« Reply #3 on: September 06, 2006, 03:29:42 PM »

They should just delay until January or later. Only 100k in Japan? There will be riots.
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« Reply #4 on: September 06, 2006, 04:35:33 PM »

Quote from: ATB on September 06, 2006, 03:29:42 PM

Only 100k in Japan? There will be riots.

No joke.  I'm not counting on getting one myself... doesn't seem very likely with 400,000 units out there.

* gellar refuses to buy one on Ebay.
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« Reply #5 on: September 06, 2006, 05:06:33 PM »

Its like Groundhog day from last year.
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« Reply #6 on: September 06, 2006, 05:06:50 PM »

Holy crap.  400,000 units in the US on launch day?  That will be a disaster.
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« Reply #7 on: September 06, 2006, 05:08:19 PM »

What did 360 launch with in the US?
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« Reply #8 on: September 06, 2006, 05:11:01 PM »

Quote from: ATB on September 06, 2006, 03:29:42 PM

They should just delay until January or later. Only 100k in Japan? There will be riots.

No kidding.

Of course, it's not like Sony needs to compete with the 360. I don't even think Microsoft has sold the ~160k original allotment to Japan almost a year ago there.

Now, the Wii on the other hand...I think Sony should be afraid of. They're gonna get creamed by it in Japan, IMHO.
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« Reply #9 on: September 06, 2006, 05:18:36 PM »

Quote from: ATB on September 06, 2006, 05:08:19 PM

What did 360 launch with in the US?

About 300-400k. 
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« Reply #10 on: September 06, 2006, 05:33:22 PM »

I can see it now.

Ebay - PS3 for sale ONLY $2,000.00 and will throw in a video cable.


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« Reply #11 on: September 06, 2006, 05:33:30 PM »

Quote from: ATB on September 06, 2006, 05:08:19 PM

What did 360 launch with in the US?
According to Bill Harris, 1.5 million.
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« Reply #12 on: September 06, 2006, 05:43:17 PM »

Quote from: IkeVandergraaf on September 06, 2006, 05:33:30 PM

Quote from: ATB on September 06, 2006, 05:08:19 PM

What did 360 launch with in the US?
According to Bill Harris, 1.5 million.

Ah, no.  No idea where he got that number from.  It *might* be worldwide by the end of 2005 but I doubt even that.  NPD data had the 360 at approx 330k during November so that tells you what North America had for launch.  Japan had under 100k and don't know what Europe got by it was less than the US.  So you've got less than 1 million shipped day one worldwide for the 360. 
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« Reply #13 on: September 06, 2006, 05:47:54 PM »

Quote from: Kevin Grey on September 06, 2006, 05:43:17 PM

Quote from: IkeVandergraaf on September 06, 2006, 05:33:30 PM

Quote from: ATB on September 06, 2006, 05:08:19 PM

What did 360 launch with in the US?
According to Bill Harris, 1.5 million.

Ah, no.  No idea where he got that number from.  It *might* be worldwide by the end of 2005 but I doubt even that.  NPD data had the 360 at approx 330k during November so that tells you what North America had for launch.  Japan had under 100k and don't know what Europe got by it was less than the US.  So you've got less than 1 million shipped day one worldwide for the 360. 

Yeah the 1.5 mil figure is a total joke.  I don't know where he got that number from.
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« Reply #14 on: September 06, 2006, 05:49:38 PM »

They shipped 1.5 million units worldwide in Q4 -

http://www.tgdaily.com/2006/01/26/microsoftq2_2006/
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« Reply #15 on: September 06, 2006, 06:01:13 PM »

Quote from: Laner on September 06, 2006, 05:49:38 PM

They shipped 1.5 million units worldwide in Q4 -

http://www.tgdaily.com/2006/01/26/microsoftq2_2006/

Ah, okay, but that definintely wasn't launch day.  Bill has some more screwed up numbers in the rest of his post too- he states that the 360 will have 8-9 million install base in North America by Christmas and thinks that might even be lowballing it but the truth is that's way, way too much and he's confusing that with worldwide numbers.  360 has less than 3 million sold in North America now- they'd have to average a million every month from now until Christmas just to hit 8 millon here and that's flat out impossible. 
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« Reply #16 on: September 06, 2006, 06:09:07 PM »

Quote from: Briko on September 06, 2006, 05:33:22 PM

I can see it now.

Ebay - PS3 for sale ONLY $2,000.00 and will throw in a video cable.


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« Reply #17 on: September 06, 2006, 06:23:25 PM »

If they're only launching with 100k in Japan... I'd bet that the vast majority of new systems go to Japan for the following 3 months or so.  Maybe a trickle to the US.
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« Reply #18 on: September 06, 2006, 06:53:43 PM »

Quote from: Jarrodhk on September 06, 2006, 06:23:25 PM

If they're only launching with 100k in Japan... I'd bet that the vast majority of new systems go to Japan for the following 3 months or so.  Maybe a trickle to the US.

The more I think about this the more it makes no sense. Playstation has been on top for SO many years in Japan that I cannot fathom why they are abusing their most loyal fanbase (maybe that answers the question).

They should ship the whole lot to Japan and make the US wait until next year to get it. 

Looks like this will be round two of the failed global launch. Possibly round 3 if Nintendo muffs it...but their launch numbers seem really high, so maybe not.
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« Reply #19 on: September 06, 2006, 06:58:36 PM »

Quote from: Kevin Grey on September 06, 2006, 05:18:36 PM

Quote from: ATB on September 06, 2006, 05:08:19 PM

What did 360 launch with in the US?

About 300-400k. 

More than that.  Much less than 1.5 mil.  NPD is not a good source to use for actual hard numbers.  Good for relative comparisons though.  Poor Sony can't seem to get the shotgun away from their foot.  100k in what should be their stronghold is not good.

Quote from: ATB
Looks like this will be round two of the failed global launch.
This is no longer a global launch with Europe delayed.
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« Reply #20 on: September 06, 2006, 07:02:12 PM »

Quote from: ATB on September 06, 2006, 06:53:43 PM

Quote from: Jarrodhk on September 06, 2006, 06:23:25 PM

If they're only launching with 100k in Japan... I'd bet that the vast majority of new systems go to Japan for the following 3 months or so.  Maybe a trickle to the US.

The more I think about this the more it makes no sense. Playstation has been on top for SO many years in Japan that I cannot fathom why they are abusing their most loyal fanbase (maybe that answers the question).

I think they want more systems in the market with the competition. They know that whenever they get the systems manuafactured the japanese will buy them, that may not be the case in North America if the 360 gets more marquee games rolling and the Wii launches well.
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« Reply #21 on: September 06, 2006, 07:02:32 PM »

This disaster is glad I'm waiting on a PS3.

Though the urge to buy one and eBay the sucker is so tempting.
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« Reply #22 on: September 06, 2006, 07:04:01 PM »

I am pretty sure the US launch of the 360 was 400 - 600k actually.  No I can't provide a source, this is going by memory.
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« Reply #23 on: September 06, 2006, 07:12:53 PM »

The issue isn't how the PS3 launch numbers compare to the 360's, it's how a small launch means it will take even longer for Sony to catch up.  It's how a small launch fails to take advantage of the initial product hype.  It's how a small launch means frustrated potential buyers going with a competitor instead.  It's how a small launch gives more time for a "killer app" game to show up uncontested on something else.  It's how a small launch impacts supportive publishers. It's how it will now be a two holiday lead for MS before Sony can bring all it's firepower to the table.

I'm suprised by the complete abandonment of Europe.  I had thought the 360 was doing fairly well over there, but comments on other boards suggest Europe is so strongly pro-Sony that they can afford this.



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« Reply #24 on: September 06, 2006, 07:16:44 PM »

Quote
I'm suprised by the complete abandonment of Europe.  I had thought the 360 was doing fairly well over there, but comments on other boards suggest Europe is so strongly pro-Sony that they can afford this.

Yep- the only market the 360 is doing well in is North America.  But these Sony issues certainly provide Nintendo (for Japan) and the 360 (for Europe) a huge opening. 
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« Reply #25 on: September 06, 2006, 07:35:32 PM »

in the UK the 360 did actually come out here two weeks after you guys,so,no 3 month wait for us(i got mine on 15th december),cant remember how many we got 'allocated'...but i do know that even though i got mine 2 weeks after the UK launch i was still considered to be one of the lucky ones

now with the ps3 missing the face to face launch/battle with wii(i dont think nintendo had anything to worry about in that battle anyway)...and to a lesser extent,microsofts gears of war that is causing a bit of a fuss ...

...wouldnt it be funny to see the ps3 finally get released in march,and go slap bang up against halo 3,LOL
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« Reply #26 on: September 06, 2006, 08:23:57 PM »

Quote from: Briko on September 06, 2006, 05:33:22 PM

I can see it now.

Ebay - PS3 for sale ONLY $2,000.00 and will throw in a video cable.

That's such a steal! That video cable must be at least $100!  icon_biggrin

And on a more interesting note, Gamespot has had a few talks with Sony today, and all of them disagree with what Krazy Kaz said:

Quote
[UPDATE 2] This morning, US Sony reps told GameSpot that, despite the European delay and the AP report of reduced shipment numbers, the previous estimates still stood. "[We] have announced that 2 million will be available in the world come November 11 and 17 and 4 million by the end of the calendar year," said a spokesperson.

[UPDATE 3] If that wasn't confusing enough, a third set of numbers has entered the mix, courtesy of MTV News. Dave Karraker, SCEA's newly appointed head of corporate communications, told the youth network that around 1 million PS3s will be available at retail during the holiday shopping season.

"People shouldn't fixate on the day-one allocation number," Karraker told MTV. "They should instead be more interested in the overall units available through the holidays, which will be 1 million to 1.2 million, which are significant amounts that will provide retail supply week over week with no dips in available stock."

Karraker also said that consumers shouldn't compare the PS3 launch to last year's Xbox 360 launch, which was also plagued by massive shortages and the occasional scuffle. "The supply we have at launch is comparable to what was available for the PS2, not Xbox 360," said Karraker. The PS2 launched in October 2000 with just a half-million units at retail--causing near-riots at some stores.

It was unclear which holidays Karraker was referring to when he spoke to MTV. Traditionally, though, the last day of Christmas shopping is December 26--meaning Sony would have to sell between 800,000 and 1 million PlayStation 3s in five days to make its 2 million-unit target. If he meant through new years, then the two-million unit target is no longer valid. Requests for clarification sent to Karraker had not been returned as of press time. [END UPDATES]

Make of it what you will. Personally, I'm gonna trust Kaz on this one, and believe his numbers. In my mind, this translates to: Microsoft and Nintendo could have a field day this Christmas if they play their cards right.

BTW - that Bill Harris link listed above has some very interesting thoughts about the future of Sony, and how they could lose major development support (what's the point of being a launch title with so few units available?), as well as availability numbers that don't make sense (like how exactly is Sony going to have 6 million units available worldwide by March 2007?).
« Last Edit: September 06, 2006, 08:28:27 PM by Destructor » Logged

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« Reply #27 on: September 06, 2006, 08:27:11 PM »

The whole PS3 saga just gets funnier and funnier by the week.  I have no intention of buying one for a long time, but I continue to read every article anyway.

Good stuff.
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« Reply #28 on: September 06, 2006, 08:57:14 PM »

The schadenfreude is strong indeed smile
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« Reply #29 on: September 06, 2006, 09:00:26 PM »

What will make this even funnier is if the PS3 is the dominant console by the end of the generation. Sony couldn't bork it anymore without a full on delay everywhere. I've never seen any company screw up their launch so much, it's pretty much worse than the Saturn launch right now.
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« Reply #30 on: September 06, 2006, 09:45:41 PM »

Quote from: Tebunker on September 06, 2006, 09:00:26 PM

What will make this even funnier is if the PS3 is the dominant console by the end of the generation. 

What determines dominance? Install base?  I think I read somewhere or saw it referenced here that Wii is supposed to have 5,000,000 sold by the end of the year? Maybe I'm mixing up my numbers, but I don't know how Sony could come back from that or MS will catch that figure unless the Wii absolutely blows and word of mouth sinks it.

Either way, I've said all along that I don't think Sony will win this generation.  I just don't see it happening. But I'm hardly 'in the know'.
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« Reply #31 on: September 06, 2006, 09:46:40 PM »

Quote from: gellar on September 06, 2006, 04:35:33 PM

Quote from: ATB on September 06, 2006, 03:29:42 PM

Only 100k in Japan? There will be riots.

No joke.  I'm not counting on getting one myself... doesn't seem very likely with 400,000 units out there.

* gellar refuses to buy one on Ebay.

Pshaw. You say that now but you have no will power whatsoever. WHAT SO EVER.  You'll probably buy two just to say that you did....punk.
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« Reply #32 on: September 06, 2006, 09:52:07 PM »

Quote from: ATB on September 06, 2006, 09:45:41 PM

I think I read somewhere or saw it referenced here that Wii is supposed to have 5,000,000 sold by the end of the year?
Which year?  2006?  That would be highly unlikely.  I don't think *any* console has ever sold that many that quickly (especially considering we don't even have a release date yet)
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« Reply #33 on: September 06, 2006, 10:18:02 PM »

Don't care how many they have at launch since I won't be getting one til a price drop.  Waited to get the PS2 new for $150 and don't feel I missed a single friggin thing by doing it.  And I saved money on my car insurance doing it! 
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« Reply #34 on: September 06, 2006, 11:33:50 PM »

Quote from: Tebunker on September 06, 2006, 09:00:26 PM

What will make this even funnier is if the PS3 is the dominant console by the end of the generation. Sony couldn't bork it anymore without a full on delay everywhere. I've never seen any company screw up their launch so much, it's pretty much worse than the Saturn launch right now.

Sony could drop turds in a box and defeat Microsoft in Japan.  I was hoping they would delay launch in Japan too.  Then I would buy one and sell it on ebay to a Japanese college student for $4000.

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« Reply #35 on: September 06, 2006, 11:42:41 PM »

I had to laugh when people were waiting in 5 hour lines, paying inflated prices, and otherwise going insane to get their little Xbox360's last year.  Even more ironic, 90% of the people I know that went to extremes to get one, sold theirs already due to titles that don't interest them.

Of course, I am 100% sure nobody learned their lesson, and the same thing will happen with the PS3.. Legions of dweebs going insane, paying big prices, maxing their credit cards, and otherwise doing things that sane people shouldn't do.  All for the pleasure of losing all of the money in a few months when the machines are a dime a dozen.
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« Reply #36 on: September 06, 2006, 11:55:35 PM »

Quote from: Kobra on September 06, 2006, 11:42:41 PM

I had to laugh when people were waiting in 5 hour lines, paying inflated prices, and otherwise going insane to get their little Xbox360's last year.  Even more ironic, 90% of the people I know that went to extremes to get one, sold theirs already due to titles that don't interest them.

I got mine on launch day at Costco for $479 with PGR3, an extra wireless controller, and the play and charge kit.  Best gaming investment I've ever made.
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« Reply #37 on: September 07, 2006, 01:09:59 AM »

Quote from: denoginizer on September 06, 2006, 11:55:35 PM

Quote from: Kobra on September 06, 2006, 11:42:41 PM

I had to laugh when people were waiting in 5 hour lines, paying inflated prices, and otherwise going insane to get their little Xbox360's last year.  Even more ironic, 90% of the people I know that went to extremes to get one, sold theirs already due to titles that don't interest them.

I got mine on launch day at Costco for $479 with PGR3, an extra wireless controller, and the play and charge kit.  Best gaming investment I've ever made.

I preordered mine right after E3 in '05, and got mine launch day (well, midnight) at EB. I sure as heck have no issues with my console.
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« Reply #38 on: September 07, 2006, 01:15:32 AM »

Quote from: denoginizer on September 06, 2006, 11:55:35 PM

Quote from: Kobra on September 06, 2006, 11:42:41 PM

I had to laugh when people were waiting in 5 hour lines, paying inflated prices, and otherwise going insane to get their little Xbox360's last year.  Even more ironic, 90% of the people I know that went to extremes to get one, sold theirs already due to titles that don't interest them.

I got mine on launch day at Costco for $479 with PGR3, an extra wireless controller, and the play and charge kit.  Best gaming investment I've ever made.

Yeah, prices don't drop at Costco, they just drop products.  That bundle is still $479 there, and when the price on the Xbox drops significantly, Costco will just not replenish and sell it out, and come back again with a newer bundle. At that point, you could easily return yours for full cash back and get the new one, or whatever else strikes your fancy at the time.  thumbsup
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« Reply #39 on: September 07, 2006, 02:31:50 AM »

I think we need to change Kobra's avatar to a picture of Costco paying his bills, the man is a Costco pimp(can't lie, I just spent 170 bucks there this week :-) )


The latest rumors put Nintendo's Ship Numbers at something close to 5.5 million worldwide, considering they are launching in all areas within weeks of each other, have been rumored to be in heavy production for months, this isn't too far off of a bet. If they were to sell through 5.5 million that would be ridiculous. I think we can be safe and say that they will ship 5.5 by end of next March, and hopefully sell through all of it.
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