[CG news discussion] Game Sales Down?

[Dreamshadow]

(Related news posting: http://www.consolegold.com/News/index.php#saledown )

Is anyone else feel their wallet scream with the amount of games coming out this month?  I've got no less than six titles I'm looking forward to

Dynasty Warriors IV: Empires
Armored Core: Nexus
Star Ocean 3:TtEoT
Evil Genius
Warhammer 40K: Dawn of War
Kohan II

And there are more that I have forgotten.  What concerns me is that I will be able to buy, oh, maybe three of the titles I want.  I don't understand this September crush that is going on.  From what I can tell it goes into part of October, then almost silence until Middle November, Dec for Christmas.  You would think that companies would look at what's being released and delay a little bit (week to two weeks) so that people might have money to buy their titles.  This would seem logical to me.

On the other hand (this just occured to me), the first games out are the ones people talk about, and the people marketing the games could be thinking 'Lets get our game out ASAP, so people talk about it and play it.'  Maybe they're hoping for some sort of snowballing effect.  But I'm not convinced that it will happen.  

Call me pessimistic about sales.........(I'll wait here for the crowd to respond)......but I think this month might dissappoint some developers.  I'll stop here before I go into my 'corporations are evil' mode, mostly because it's not totally justified, and I want to see what other people think.

[Knightshade Dragon]

I think you forgot Fable in that list.

[Dreamshadow]

No...no I didn't.  Fable would do me no good.  It won't run on my PC.

This is from Andrew Mallon on the GG forums ...he brings up a good point:

There was a Bank Of America industry report a few months ago that covered this same topic. It postulated that there is a "Murderer's Row" of ultra-AAA titles coming out in October and November that will completely crowd out the rest of the field.

Murderer's Row is comprised of the following titles:

GTA: San Andreas
Halo 2
Metroid Prime: Echoes
Half Life 2
Doom 3 (Xbox)
Gran Turismo 4
Metal Gear Solid 3

Given how many copies these seven titles ar expected to move, the article speculates that the rest of the field is going to get creamed. Established franchises will be lucky if they match sales of previous titles and most new titles and marginal franchises are going to be totally ignored.

This is going to be the msot competitve holiday season ever. Bottom line for the article was that there's going to be a lot of losers this Christmas.

[Knightshade Dragon]

I think there is still room to compete, even on that list.  For instance, I have ZERO interest in GT4 when you put it next to Forza Racing.  That said, I'll be there picking up GTA, Halo 2, HL2, and MGS3.  (and I've already pre-loaded HL2 for next September...or this September...or whatever that crowbar ad said its coming)

Its funny, when I think of my holiday list, this group didn't immediately come to mind.  Strange, that.  

My list would go a lil something like this:
HL2
GTA
MGS3
Halo2
Fable
Darkwatch
Predator
Pariah
MK:Deception
Robotech:Invasion
Thug2
Xmen Legends
Cthulu (yay!)
PoP2
Suikoden IV (I've already set 110 hours aside for this title)
Mech Assaul 2
KOTOR2


See?  I think its just naysayers screaming at the big titles.  News flash guys, those titles are not at the tops of everyone's list!

(oh yea...and j00 need d3 ecksbocks Tom)

[Dreamshadow]

Puhleeze...Ecks vs Sever wasn't even worth my time. ('swhat you get you when you speak 733T around me.)

See the problem I have is that it seems that some dev houses (or publishers..take your pick) are pushing out a whole bunch of titles in hopes that a few make it big.  The problem with that is that none of the titles from a particular publisher may make it at all, or if they get a big hit, it won't cover the costs of the other games that they produced/developed.  This month is going to be a crap shoot on what sells and what doesn't....Star Ocean is lucky, it has a fair bit of positive press leading it into the marketplace, and with the comparisons to the already popular Tales of Symphonia it should do well.  Other titles on the other hand, I just haven't seen the same level of press.  X-Men Legends is getting a little more of that press right now..but it's going to be tough for the non-murder row titles.

The next three months are going to be telling as to what makes a AAA title.  I still  believe that they are trying to create a demand that just won't develop.

[Knightshade Dragon]

Well the basic logic never seems to apply.  Release throughout the year...I'll buy far more often if it is spread out.

[Dreamshadow]

And to add to that logic,  

Most businesses set a time frame in which they work to make their money back (usually 1.5 to 3 months after release).  The way I see it, we're looking at about fifty-ish titles in 90 days.  Most of those titles may not get the chance to make their money back in the (IMHO, artificial) time frame that the publisher is setting on the title.

[Destructor]

As I made a quip on the front page the other day - WHY can't developers release games during the summer? The kids (who are the average gaming population) are off from school.

Look: Bored kids = instant gaming sales.

Duh.

[Purge]

Only PC and XBOX for me... according to the list (and order) of games in the EBGames release list :
** MUST BUY
* Strong likelyhood; rental or review will swing this
- piqued my curiousity...

Fable**
KUF:Crusaders*
Battlefront*
XMen Legends*
DOA Ultimate**
Otogi 2*
TMNT2 -
Bard's Tale**
Halo2**
Prince o' Persia 2*
SC:Chaos Theory*
Ghost Recon 2**
KOTOR2*
Conker**
MechAssault 2**
Forza**

Whenever it comes out (both are slated for this year) ...  :roll:
Half-Life 2**
Team Fortress 2**


Oh, Ron, I don't know if I mentioned this to you... there were a couple women who checked out of the same hotel we were in at E3 2003 and they  claimed they were texture artists for valve... working on TF2. Since it's supposed to be using the HL2 engine, it really wouldn't surprise me... I mean hey, Doom3 went gold.

Maybe there's a duke game coming yet.  

Purge holding breath : :oops:

[Devil]

Game sales down?

Not for me!!

IN!!

[Andrew Mallon]

The Bank of America report was really interesting. Here's some of it's conclusions:

We have every reason to believe that the games of Murderers’ Row will be as big as anticipated. Sure, there may be some disappointments. But large preorders should ensure that the sales of each of these games should be well into the millions. San Andreas should be the biggest game of the year (more than 5 million units in the U.S.), largely due to the excitement generated by the last two GTA games and the huge size of the PS-2 installed base (which has doubled since the last GTA release). Furthermore, GTA appeals to such a wide audience that it should provide competition to nearly every game outside of The Sims 2.0 this holiday. In spite of the large anticipated sales of San Andreas, Halo 2 could possibly be the event of the year, with preorders possibly even greater than those for San Andreas. These two titles alone may very well bury every game in their paths in late October and early November. Indeed, the valley between October 19 (release of GTA: San Andreas) and the one to two weeks after November 9 (release date for Halo 2) is likely to be lonely for all other video games. The other titles of Murderers’ Row will likely cause difficulties in specific genres, which we discuss in the sections below.

We expect that EA will have another very solid holiday season, particularly with its more mass market (Need for Speed Underground 2, Burnout 3), sports (Madden, NBA Live) and PC (The Sims 2.0, LOTR: The Battle for Middle Earth) titles, as well as Def Jam: Fight for New York. However, we believe that EA’s titles that skew towards a slightly more hardcore audience, including GoldenEye2 and Battlefield: Modern Combat, may have a more difficult time gaining traction, partially due to competition from Murderers’ Row (we discuss specific genres and games in more depth later in this report).As a result, we expect EA to lose 2-4%  of console market share in the fall of 2004, although its PC business will likely be meaningfully higher (The Sims 2.0, LOTR: The Battle for Middle-Earth, etc.). The company’s EAP (EA Partners) business will also increase meaningfully (+35%) this year.

Companies with well-known brands, such as Activision (Call of Duty, Tony Hawk, Doom 3) and THQ (THQI, $22.78, Neutral, Target Price: $20.00) (WWE, The Incredibles, SpongeBob) should be able to withstand the onslaught of Murderers’ Row. We have very low expectations for games of other developers with less-known brands, including Acclaim, Midway(except Mortal Kombat), Atari, Eidos, Vivendi (apart from Half-Life 2, if it is released) and even Microsoft (MSFT, $28.28, Buy, Target Price: $35.00; covered by Bob Stimson) (except for Halo 2). Furthermore, there are simply too many games scheduled for release (again!). With the competition out there and the large number of titles, some games will just not receive any shelf space from retailers, and/or initial shipments of titles will be very low, even by historical standards. Expect many disasters this holiday.

You can already see his last prediction coming true. I know a lot of Gamestops and EBs aren't going to be stocking what they refer to as "C-List" titles such as Growlanser Generations, and Shin Megami Tensei.

[Nth Power]

Game sales down?

Not for me!!

Ditto.  

My self-restraint becomes extremely low when placed against a decent game.   You know how in the movies, the little angel and devil appear on the person's shoulder and proceed to argue?  In my case, the angel doesn't even bother to show up.

[ingrin]

You can already see his last prediction coming true. I know a lot of Gamestops and EBs aren't going to be stocking what they refer to as "C-List" titles such as Growlanser Generations, and Shin Megami Tensei.

Yep, I haven't seen Galleon at any of the stores I've been to.

[Purge]

You know how in the movies, the little angel and devil appear on the person's shoulder and proceed to argue?  In my case, the angel doesn't even bother to show up.

Have you ever seen Emporer's New Groove? My angel is WAY outclassed by the devil.  :twisted:

I see myself working a lot of overtime.

[whiteboyskim]

Oh, Ron, I don't know if I mentioned this to you... there were a couple women who checked out of the same hotel we were in at E3 2003 and they  claimed they were texture artists for valve... working on TF2. Since it's supposed to be using the HL2 engine, it really wouldn't surprise me... I mean hey, Doom3 went gold.

Were they cute? And did they know what they were doing?

[whiteboyskim]

You know how in the movies, the little angel and devil appear on the person's shoulder and proceed to argue?  In my case, the angel doesn't even bother to show up.

Have you ever seen Emporer's New Groove? My angel is WAY outclassed by the devil.  :twisted:

"We've been over this before. It's a harp, and you know it."

God, I love that movie. So damn funny.

[Knightshade Dragon]

"Yea, that's a harp....and that's a dress."

[whiteboyskim]

"Yea, that's a harp....and that's a dress."

"ROBE!"

[farley2k]

As I made a quip on the front page the other day - WHY can't developers release games during the summer? The kids (who are the average gaming population) are off from school.

Look: Bored kids = instant gaming sales.

Duh.

I think that the classic marketing says that kids will be outside in the summer.  The same reason they don't have a TV season in the summer.  People are outside.

[Purge]

Oh, Ron, I don't know if I mentioned this to you... there were a couple women who checked out of the same hotel we were in at E3 2003 and they  claimed they were texture artists for valve... working on TF2. Since it's supposed to be using the HL2 engine, it really wouldn't surprise me... I mean hey, Doom3 went gold.

Were they cute? And did they know what they were doing?

One of them was definately "programmer" class. (shudder) The texture artist that I was talking to was cute, in a bookworm kinda way.  :lol:

[Purge]

"Yea, that's a harp....and that's a dress."

"ROBE!"

devil : "Plus, I can do this..." <one-armed hand-stand>
guard : "But I don't see how.."
angel : " No, no. He's got a point".

I ran to the bathroom at that one... almost made it too  :oops:  

[whiteboyskim]

As I made a quip on the front page the other day - WHY can't developers release games during the summer? The kids (who are the average gaming population) are off from school.

Look: Bored kids = instant gaming sales.

Duh.

I think that the classic marketing says that kids will be outside in the summer.  The same reason they don't have a TV season in the summer.  People are outside.

Well now, that's just silly talk! Gamers don't go outside, you f00l. Not now, not never! Viva la Revolucion!

[Purge]

Well now, that's just silly talk! Gamers don't go outside, you f00l. Not now, not never! Viva la Revolucion!

Or bathe. Or breathe with their mouthes closed.  :roll: